NBA Odds: Heat-Hawks prediction, pick, how to watch
The Miami Heat (24-20) visit the Atlanta Hawks (21-22) on Monday. Action tips off at 3:30 p.m. ET. Below we continue our NBA odds series with a Heat-Hawks prediction, pick, and how to watch.
Miami has won four of their last five games and sits in seventh place in the Eastern Conference. The Heat covered 42% of their games while 55% went under the projected point total. Atlanta has won three of their last four games but remains in ninth place in the East. The Hawks covered 41% of their games while 54% went over. This will be the second of four meetings between the two teams. The Heat took the first game in Atlanta, 106-98.
Here are the Heat-Hawks NBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel
NBA Odds: Heat-Hawks Odds
Miami Heat: -1 (-112)
Atlanta Hawks: +1 (-108)
Over: 224.5 (-110)
Under: 224.5 (-110)
How To Watch Heat vs. Hawks
TV: TNT
Stream: TNT Live
Time: 3:30 p.m. ET/ 12:30 p.m. PT
*Watch NBA games LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why The Heat Could Cover The Spread
Miami has finally started to look like the team many expected them to be prior to the season. The Heat have strung together three consecutive wins and now sit just one game back of the No. 6 seed in the East. Despite being road favorites, the Heat have an excellent chance to win and cover today thanks to their elite defense. Miami ranks second in the league in points allowed (108.5 Opp. PPG) and forces a turnover at the second-highest rate in the league (14.9%). Although the Heat average the fewest points per game in the NBA (108.8 PPG), that is likely thanks to their lack of offensive possessions rather than their lack of offensive talent. The Heat play at the third-slowest pace in the NBA (98.3 possessions per game), but still have a trio of 20 PPG scorers.
Offensive, all three of Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, and Tyler Herro average over 20 points per game. Their multitude of offensive options gives Miami a lot of leeway in how they approach each game. Butler leads the way with 21.7 PPG on 51% shooting. He does a great job getting to the free throw line as he averages 8.0 attempts per game. Butler missed their earlier win over the Hawks but notably struggled in his lone visit to Atlanta last year.
Center Bam Adeyabo had no such struggles in his most recent visit to Atlanta. In the team’s eight-point win earlier this season, Bam scored 32 points and pulled down eight rebounds. He scored 14 of his 32 in the third quarter and shot 13/20 overall. Atlanta allows the fifth-most points in the paint per game – setting Bam up for another big outing.
Although Miami will be without starting point guard Kyle Lowry, they still have a great chance to cover thanks to the emergence of Victor Oladipo, Gabe Vincent, and Max Strus. All three reserves have played over 30 minutes per game across their last five outings. The three have provided a ton of production from the perimeter. Oladipo averaged 17.4 PPG and 2.6 threes, Vincent averaged 15.4 PPG and 2.8 threes, and Strus averaged 14.6 PPG and 2.8 threes. Their versatility and ability to get hot at a moment’s notice give Miami a ton of flexibility in how they approach the Atlanta defense and are major reasons they can cover as road favorites tonight.
Why The Hawks Could Cover The Spread
Despite their earlier loss to Miami, the Hawks are playing much better this time around. Atlanta has covered three of five games as home underdogs and has a great chance to continue that trend tonight thanks to their strong offense. The Hawks rank 11th in the league in scoring (114.9 PPG) and do a great job limiting mistakes. Atlanta averages the third-fewest turnovers per game (12.8 TOPG) – something that will come in handy against Miami’s fearsome defense.
If the Hawks are going to cover tonight, they’re going to need their guards to show up. Trae Young (27.5 PPG) and Dejounte Murray (20.2 PPG) form one of the most explosive backcourts in the league. However, they combined for just 35 points on 9-32 shooting. That includes an abysmal 3-16 showing from beyond the arc. Simply put, Atlanta is not going to cover games when both their guards struggle. That being said, they’ve been much better of late.
Trae Young finds himself in one of his hottest stretches of the season. Over his last four games, Young has averaged 28.3 PPG and 9.3 APG while shooting 52% from beyond the arc. Although Trae is known for his outside shooting, he’s shooting just 33% from three for the season. His strong play of late gives Atlanta a great chance to cover considering they kept it within eight points even with his poor shooting.
Final Heat-Hawks Prediction & Pick
Miami is finally clicking, whereas Atlanta continues to be up and down. Ride the road favorites tonight thanks to their plethora of offensive options.
Final Heat-Hawks Prediction & Pick: Miami Heat -1 (-112)
