NBA Odds, Lines & Best Bets: Warriors Vs. Grizzlies (1/25/23)

Forbes

25 January 2023

NBA Odds, Lines & Best Bets: Warriors Vs. Grizzlies (1/25/23)

Betting Matchup Preview

Who: Golden State Warriors vs. Memphis Grizzlies
When: Wednesday, Jan. 25, 2023
Time: 10 p.m. ET/7 p.m. PT
Where: Chase Center (San Francisco, California)

Betting Odds Summary

Moneyline: Warriors -162, Grizzlies +136
Spread: Warriors -3.5 (-110), Grizzlies +3.5 (+110)
Total: Over/Under 245.5 (-110/-110)

Golden State and Memphis have played some chippy matchups since the Grizzlies eliminated the Warriors from the 2021 NBA playoffs. There should be fireworks between these two after their Christmas Day matchup.

The Grizzlies, led by their athletic point guard Ja Morant, raced out to a 31-16 record, good for the second seed in the Western Conference. They are built on stingy defense and crashing the boards relentlessly (they’re first in the NBA in rebounds per game).

The Grizzlies announced Tuesday that center Steven Adams suffered a PCL sprain and will be sidelined for several weeks. That’s a blow to a critical part of the Grizzlies’ identity: rebounding. Adams leads the NBA in offensive rebounds per game and is fourth in total rebounds per game. Memphis will miss his presence in the paint.

Golden State is reeling after blowing a 17-point lead at home against Brooklyn. The Warriors have been up and down this season, looking nothing like the formidable champions they were last year.

Despite the Grizzlies having the better record, these two teams know each other better than most. The loss of Adams benefits the Warriors, as they’re 23rd in opponent rebounds per game (44.3).

Spread, Moneyline, Total: Warriors vs. Grizzlies

The Warriors are 4-6 in January, with some inexplicable losses to Orlando, Phoenix and Chicago. Golden State still needs to put together a consistent stretch of winning basketball.

The Warriors shoot just 25.4 percent of their attempts at the rim and attempt the most threes in the NBA (45 percent). Forward Jonathan Kuminga will play his second game back from injury. He will help the Warriors put pressure on the rim. The second-year forward shoots 50 percent of his shot attempts at the rim. Golden State needs Kuminga to use his prodigious athleticism to help the offense.

James Wiseman expects to return after missing 11 games with an ankle injury. While Wiseman has been widely panned, he gives the Warriors size on the interior. With his role reduced this season to allow him to adjust to the NBA game, Wiseman has shown positive flashes of understanding how to protect the rim. The two young players give the Warriors a much-needed athletic boost.

On the other side, Morant will return after a one-game absence. Morant has given Golden State problems in the last couple of matchups. The one-man highlight reel scored 38 points in Chase Center on Christmas Day.

The Grizzlies aren’t just a one-person team: Desmond Bane and Jaren Jackson Jr. are excellent players who complement Morant. Bane is a three-point marksman (shooting a blistering 42.8 percent from downtown), while Jaren Jackson Jr. is a 6-foot-11 shot-blocking extraordinaire (his 3.3 blocks per game lead the NBA).

Memphis plays with heart and grit every single night. This game will come down to Memphis’ supporting cast. A superstar of Morant’s caliber will leave his imprint on the game, especially against a Golden State defense that is 16th in defensive rating. Dillon Brooks, Bane and Jackson Jr. will have to score to alleviate Morant’s burden.

It’s a viable bet on the Warriors to cover the spread at -3.5. The one way to slow down the Warriors is to beat them up. Without the brute force of Adams, that becomes harder for the Grizzlies.

In the last matchup between the two teams, the Warriors won by 14 points at home. The over/under is 245.5, and the under is the best bet. The Grizzlies’ physical defense affects the free-flowing nature of Golden State’s offense. Taking the Grizzlies’ moneyline is a good bet.

Player Prop Bets: Warriors vs. Grizzlies

Andrew Wiggins to make over 2.5 three-pointers (+162)

Wiggins is in the most prolonged slump of his Golden State career. Since returning from injury, Wiggins is averaging 12.4 points on 34.0/22.7/56.3 shooting splits. He only went over 2.5 threes once in his last seven games. Against Memphis, the former Jayhawk will get a plethora of open looks.

Desmond Bane to make 5+ three-pointers (+440)

Bane is one of the best shooters in the NBA. Bane’s quick, compact release allows him to get a shot off against even the best closeouts. But the third-year player has cooled considerably since his scorching hot start: After making five-plus three-pointers four times in the first two months of the season, he’s only done it twice since. The Warriors often over-help on defense, so he should get some open looks at the basket.

Same-Game Parlay

A same-game parlay allows a bettor to combine multiple events into a single long-shot wager.

Here’s a playable SGP for the game on Wednesday:

Draymond Green to record 10+ assists (+310)
Klay Thompson to score 30+ points (+500)
Dillon Brooks to score the first basket (+850)
Andrew Wiggins to record 10+ rebounds (+1100)

The parlay’s odds are +103731. A winning $100 bet would pay out $103,731. This is a very unlikely outcome, but we’ll explain why we think it’s possible for Wednesday’s game.

The first leg of the parlay is for Draymond Green to record 10-plus assists. The Warriors are best when Green dishes the ball to the three-point sharpshooters. In wins, Green is averaging 7.1 assists compared to 6.5 in losses. The four-time NBA champion recorded 13 assists against Memphis in the last matchup.

The second leg of the parlay is for Klay Thompson to score 30-plus points. The Splash Brother is enjoying the best stretch of his season: Thompson is averaging 27.0 points on 46.7 percent shooting from the field and 42.3 percent from deep. Thompson also loves matching up against the Grizzlies.

The third leg of the parlay is for Dillion Brooks to score the first basket. Brooks averages the third-most shot attempts on the Grizzlies (15.1) and hasn’t met a shot he didn’t like.

The fourth leg of the parlay is for Andrew Wiggins to record 10-plus rebounds. The forward is averaging 3.9 boards in January, however the Warriors have shifted to a small lineup with Wiggins masquerading as the power forward, so he’ll have ample opportunities to grab rebounds.