NBA Odds: Warriors-Kings playoff series top prop picks
The NBA Playoffs are back as the No. 6 seed Golden State Warriors (44-38) take on the No. 3 seed Sacramento Kings (48-34) in the Western Conference first round. The series tips off on Saturday at 8:30 p.m. ET. With such an enticing matchup on deck, there are a number of juicy prop bets to take a look at. Below we continue our NBA odds series with the Warriors-Kings playoff series’ top betting prop picks and odds.
Here are the top Warriors-Kings playoff props, courtesy of DraftKings
NBA Props: Warriors-Kings Betting Prop Picks Odds
Game 1 Winner/Series Winner Parlay: Kings/Warriors (+205)
Series Total Threes Leader: Klay Thompson (+165)
Series Total Points Leader: De’Aaron Fox (+300)
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Kings to win game 1/Warriors to win series (+205)
To kick things off, let’s try to find some more value with the Warriors winning the series. Despite being the No. 6 seed, the defending champs are heavily favored to win the series at -285. At that price, there isn’t much value in betting Golden State straight up. Even if you wanted to take them to win their series spread of -1.5 games it still only sits at -165. However, if you think the Kings can pull off a home upset in game one before the Warriors eventually win the series, those odds shoot all the way up to +205. Considering the Kings’ game one money line is a near-even -115, getting them to win game one but lose the series at +205 are great odds.
First off, we need the Kings to win game one. Although they dropped a home matchup with Golden State just last week, Sacramento rested essentially all of their impact players. They previously beat the Warriors at home earlier in the year, 122-115. Although the Kings were actually a better road team than a home team, this will be their first playoff appearance in 16 years. As a result, tickets are in high demand and the Golden 1 Center should be electric. Additionally, the Warriors were one of the worst road teams in the league during the regular season, and they have to fit Andrew Wiggins back into the fold. Consequently, the Kings’ best chance of stealing one lies in game one. That being said, the Warriors still should pull out the series in the end.
Klay Thompson Threes Leader (+165)
Between Klay Thompson and Stephen Curry, the three-point leader for this series looks like a two-man race. Curry is the favorite but value exists with Thompson. They were very similar from beyond the arc this season. Steph averaged 4.9 threes per game while shooting 43% whereas Klay averaged 4.4 threes per game on 41% shooting. However, the two both missed games this season and only shared the court for 49 games. In those games, Thompson averaged 4.1 threes per game on 41% shooting while Curry averaged 4.8 threes per game on 43% shooting. While Klay struggled against the Kings at the beginning of the year, he nailed five threes in each of the last two matchups against them. Curry output opposite results, thriving against the Kings in the first two games but hitting just six threes in the most recent two matchups.
De’Aaron Fox Points Leader (+300)
Looking at the series point leaders, it really comes down to De’Aaron Fox or Stephen Curry. While Curry is the favorite, Fox certainly stands a strong chance of keeping pace with him particularly if the Kings make things competitive. While Curry’s 29.4 PPG bested Fox’s 25.0 PPG during the regular season, the Kings were a much deeper team than the Warriors. Additionally, Curry outscored Fox 33-25 in their head-to-head matchups this season. That being said, Steph’s mark was skewed by a 47-point outburst in their second meeting. While that is certainly in play to happen again, you can see a path for Curry to take more of a step back especially if they have the series in hand. With Wiggins returning and Gary Payton back in the fold, the Warriors could try and more evenly distribute their scoring load in preparation for a deeper run.
Although Fox averaged just 25.0 PPG this season, he, too, can explode for a monster performance on any given night. Additionally, Fox actually averaged more points per game in his team’s losses compared to their wins. While Fox hasn’t sniffed the postseason as a professional, a look back at his college years gives hope for a big-time performance. He notably dropped 39 points on Lonzo Ball’s UCLA Bruins in the 2016-17 tournament which developed his reputation as a big game player. Given the spotlight on the series, expect Fox to show up and ball out.
Final Warriors-Kings Playoff Betting Prop Picks
We are all about value here and thus envision a series in which the Kings win the first game but the Warriors win the series with De’Aaron Fox and Klay Thompson lighting it up along the way.
