NBA parlay picks Dec. 28: Bet on Timberwolves to cover at home

The Minnesota Timberwolves put their ferocious home record on the line tonight against a Dallas Mavericks team playing on zero rest.

The pregame narrative: Dallas, a squad that's 10-6 on the road this season, doesn't hold underdog status too often. But Minnesota is the rightful favourite tonight and should cover an alt spread. Elsewhere, fade a bloated point total in the Indiana Pacers vs. Chicago Bulls matchup.

Here are some NBA parlay picks for December 28.

NBA oddsas of 9:15 a.m. on 12/28/2023.

NBA parlay picks

Parlay: Timberwolves -6.5 + Pacers/Bulls under 246.5 points + Trail Blazers ML (+256)

Timberwolves -6.5 (-195): At home or with a rest advantage, the Timberwolves are a nightmare to deal with. So what do you think it's like when they have both?

Minnesota is catching Dallas on the second leg of a back-to-back tonight at Target Center. The Mavericks lost as 6-point home favourites to Cleveland on Tuesday despite a 39-point display from Luka Doncic.

I've shaved three points off this game's standard line to give the Timberwolves some added security, although they look like a solid pick regardless. Minnesota is 12-1 at home with an 11.9-point average margin of victory, and it's 7-2-1 ATS with the rest advantage.

Two weeks ago, the T'wolves toppled the Mavs, 119-101, as 2-point favourites in Dallas.

Other picks

Pacers/Bulls under 246.5 points (-200): The Pacers' season seems to be facing some regression to the mean, and that could be true as well for its rampant run of overs.

Indiana still has the highest over percentage in the NBA (71.4%), but each of its past four road games has hit the under. If you count in-season tournament games, the under is 6-2 in the Pacers' past eight games away from home.

The Bulls operate at the slowest pace among home teams, per NBA.com, so they shouldn't do a line like this any favours. Clearing 246.5 total points would mean setting a new season high at United Center for the season.

When Chicago and Indiana last matched up in October, the final score totalled just 217 points.

Trail Blazers moneyline (-180): There are few instances where you can feel good about riding with the Portland Trail Blazers, but this should be one of them.

The Blazers are just 4-10 at home, but things are looking up a bit. In their past three home games, they have a one-point loss to the Wizards sandwiched by two notable upset wins over the Kings and Suns.

But who am I kidding? This pick is about fading the San Antonio Spurs more than anything else.

The Spurs inexplicably beat the Suns in back-to-back road games from Oct. 31 to Nov. 2. But they haven't won on the road since.

And San Antonio's road net rating (-16.8) is difficult to even look at. For context, the worst season-long net rating for a team is -15.2 (1992-93 Mavericks), per StatMuse.