NBA Player Props and Best Bets for Tuesday 1/16/2024

Joel Embiid Over 33.5 Points (-115) at FanDuel

Embiid and Nikola Jokic faced off twice since both becoming MVP-level players, once in 2022 and again in 2023—in those games, Embiid scored 34 and 47 points, with the latter the more recent of the two. He also recorded 18 rebounds, five assists, three steals, and two blocks in that game in what was clearly an attempt to make a statement against the consensus best player in the world.

Embiid’s 34.9 points per night is the best in the league, and he just scored 41 in 31 minutes against a great defensive team in the Houston Rockets. He’ll get the benefit of playing Denver at home on Tuesday and should come out with aggression as he looks to outdo his contemporary.

Aaron Gordon Over 6.5 Rebounds (+112) at FanDuel

Gordon is one of the toughest rebounding and interior presences to match up with for opposing fours in the era of small ball. He should be guarded by Tobias Harris for lots of the night, but we expect him to dominate that matchup in and around the painted area.

The Philadelphia 76ers are holding opponents to the lowest three-point shooting percentage in the league. Missed threes lead to long rebounds, and Gordon should have a great chance to collect many of these boards. He also snagged 10 rebounds in his last game and is worth the gamble for plus-money.

De’Aaron Fox Over 27.5 Points (-111) at FanDuel

Fox broke out of a cold streak by scoring 32 against the Milwaukee Bucks on Sunday and now gets to go against the Phoenix Suns’ big three. He only went over this line twice this month but averages 27.8 points per game for the year and enters knowing he’ll have to be a scorer because of the caliber of opponent he’s facing. 

Fox played the Suns twice already this season, scoring 23 in 32 minutes and then 34 in 35 minutes. As long as this isn’t a blowout, he should play high minutes against a team that’s only 16th in def. rating, giving him a great chance to go over.

Paul George Over 24.5 Points (-113) at FanDuel

George said he was on his “bully” entering the season. 23.6 points per game and three games out of first in the Western Conference says that he’s accomplished his goal thus far, and now we’re looking at him to get over his scoring total on Tuesday. 

PG13 struggled his last time out but dropped 37 the game before. He only scored 22 in his lone previous matchup with the Oklahoma City Thunder (who are on the second night of a back-to-back) but shot 50% from the field and 62.5% from three and only played 29 minutes because of a blowout, robbing him of what was likely a sure over.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 30.5 Points (-120) at FanDuel

Shai was on pace to light up the Los Angeles Lakers last night but only managed eight second-half points after he opened with 16. He needs to be better for his team, but then again, he went over this line in 11 of his last 14 outings and has a track record of getting to at least 31 points (season average of 31.3).

The Los Angeles Clippers are a great defensive team but allowed Shai to score 31 in 32 minutes when they met on Dec. 21. Look for him to use the motivation of a loss last night combined with facing another top contender in the Western Conference to spur him on to a high-scoring night.