NBA Playoffs Odds: Suns-Nuggets Game 1 prediction, pick, how to watch

The NBA Playoffs continue on Saturday as the Phoenix Suns (45-37) visit the Denver Nuggets (53-29) for the first game in the Western Conference semifinals. Action tips off at 8:30 p.m. ET. Both teams won their first-round series 4-1 to advance. Below we continue our NBA odds series with a Suns-Nuggets Game 1 prediction, pick, and how to watch.

Here are the Suns-Nuggets NBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel

NBA Playoffs Odds: Suns-Nuggets Odds

Phoenix Suns: +2.5 (-108)

Denver Nuggets -2.5 (-112)

Over: 226.5 (-110)

Under: 226.5 (-110)

How To Watch Suns vs. Nuggets

TV: TNT

Stream: TNT

Time: 8:30 p.m. ET/ 5:30 p.m. PT

*Watch NBA games LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*

Why The Suns Could Cover The Spread

First-Round Results: L (110-115), W (123-109), W (129-124), W (112-100), W (136-130)

ATS Record: 44-41-2 (52%)

Over Record: 45-39-3 (54%)

After dropping the first game at home, the Suns rallied back to win four straight games against the Clippers and advance to the Western Conference semi-finals. The Suns’ offense looked downright dominant at times but contrarians certainly see plenty to point their fingers at. Phoenix often looked helpless defending the Los Angeles offense and they struggled in spots to rebound and control the paint. Additionally, the Clippers lost superstar Kawhi Leonard after the first two games and were without costar Paul George for the entirety of the series. Still, the Suns feature arguably the most star-studded starting lineup in the league. They can score at will and still have only lost one game since Kevin Durant joined the lineup. As a result, Phoenix sits in a strong position to cover as road underdogs in game one – provided their stars continue to shine.

Phoenix likely doesn’t stand much of a chance of slowing down Denver’s high-powered offense. However, the Suns could find themselves with a similar advantage on the other end. Phoenix features two superstar wings via Kevin Durant and Devin Booker. Despite playing less than 20 games with Phoenix, Durant already fills the role of their glue guy. He did it all for the Suns in round one – averaging 28.4 PPG, 7.6 RPG, and 6.2 APG while locking things down on defense. While it may seem odd to see Kevin Durant play second-fiddle on offense, that just speaks to the growth of Devin Booker.

Booker looked like the best player in the NBA during their first-round series with the Clippers. He averaged a staggering 37.2 PPG for the series while shooting 60% overall and 47% from beyond the arc. The 26-year-old amassed two 45-point games and failed to score 30 in only their game-one loss. Booker has found considerable success against the Nuggets over the last few years – with his 49-point explosion in March 2022 particularly coming to mind.

Why The Nuggets Could Cover The Spread

First-Round Results: W (109-80), W (122-113), W (120-111), L (108-114), W (112-109)

ATS Record: 47-39-1 (55%)

Over Record: 41-45-1 (48%)

Denver cruised in the opening round against Minnesota. The Nuggets won the first three games before dropping game four in a matchup they easily could have won if some things broke their way. Nevertheless, the Nuggets bounced back to take the series 4-1. That being said, the Timberwolves presented little resistance against the Nuggets’ potent offense. Enter the Phoenix Suns. The Suns match up well with the Nuggets – particularly thanks to their incredible wing play. Denver lacks perimeter defense – potentially spelling trouble for the Western Conference’s No. 1 seed. That being said, Denver projects to dominate the paint and they, too, figure to be able to score in bunches. As a result, Denver stands a strong chance of covering in game one – particularly due to their home prowess. The Nuggets finished 34-7 at home this season – the second-best record in the NBA.

Denver’s clearest path to covering in game one is the most obvious one: let Nikola Jokic cook. The two-time reigning MVP put together a stellar all-around year and looked sharp in their first-round series. Against the Timberwolves, Jokic averaged 26.2 PPG, 12.4 RPG, and 9.0 APG. While his ability to score and create shots for his teammates fills the highlight tapes, Jokic’s rebounding projects as Denver’s influential factor against Phoenix. Phoenix showed their biggest weakness in their game one loss as they were dominated down low. The Clippers out-rebounded them 49-42 thanks to generating 15 offensive rebounds. Consequently, the Nuggets need Jokic and forward Aaron Gordon to dominate the glass in game one.

Final Suns-Nuggets Prediction & Pick

Considering how easily both teams handled their round-one opponents, game one is probably a stay-away until we get to see how these teams match up. That being said, the Kevin Durant version of the Suns has just one loss to their name. While Denver does boast an elite offense, their lack of perimeter defenders plays right into Phoenix’s hands. Take the points with the road Suns and count on them to at least keep things within a bucket.

Final Suns-Nuggets Prediction & Pick: Phoenix Suns +2.5 (-108)