NBA prop picks March 1: Bet on another monster game from Lillard

The NBA has 60% of its teams in action on its action-packed Wednesday slate.

The pregame narrative: Damian Lillard has been producing points at a ludicrous rate recently, Paolo Banchero has been scuffling and Josh Giddey may struggle to pile up assists against a Los Angeles Lakers team finding its way.

Find all our best NBA props picks for March 1 below.

NBA odds as of 10:04 a.m. ET on 03/01/2023.

NBA prop picks

Best Bet:Damian Lillard over 35.5 points(-108)

For the vast majority of NBA players, this over would be nothing short of laughable and unworthy of consideration. For Lillard, it’s downright reasonable.

The veteran guard is in the midst of a career season, and his work in recent months has been truly awe-inspiring — a heater best exemplified by his 71-point game on February 26.

Over Lillard’s last 20 games, he’s averaged a staggering 38.7 points. That number isn’t just inflated by a couple of ridiculous performances, either. He has cleared this line consistently, producing 36 or more points in 13 of those contests.

Lillard’s opponent on Wednesday — the New Orleans Pelicans — shouldn’t provide too much resistance. New Orleans allows 117.2 points per game on the road and ranks 19th in the NBA in defensive rating since January 1.

This is a pivotal game for the Trail Blazers, too, as they have a chance to overtake the Pelicans for the 10th spot in the Western Conference — and the last spot in the play-in.

Lillard will be incentivized to keep his foot on the gas all night.

Key stat: Lillard has a 70-point game, a 60-point game, a 50-point game and six other games with 40-plus points since January 12.

Quick picks

Banchero under 19.5 points (-105): Banchero has had stretches this season when 20-point performances came easily, but the rookie is in a funk.

The Orlando Magic forward is averaging just 16.6 points per game in his last 11 starts, hitting this under on eight occasions.

On Wednesday he’ll be asked to break from his late-season doldrums against one of the best defences the NBA has to offer. The Milwaukee Bucks possess the NBA’s fourth-best scoring defence and will surely make life difficult for Banchero.

Giddey under 6.5 assists (-107): Although Giddey is a gifted passer, he’s taken a less ball-dominant role with the Oklahoma City Thunder this season due to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s emergence.

The Australian averages 5.8 assists per game, and he’s managed six or fewer dimes in 69.6% of his games this year. He hasn’t been a particularly prolific playmaker recently, either, as he’s hit this under in seven of his last eight appearances.

Giddey’s line is probably high because of the poor defensive numbers of his opponent. But the Los Angeles Lakers’ defence has tightened up in recent weeks, producing the NBA’s seventh-best defensive rating since February 1.