NBA Southeast Division betting preview: Heat’s title window closing
Most teams going into a new season fresh off a conference title and appearance in the NBA finals would have some level optimism following them. But after the Miami Heat were linked to Damian Lillard all offseason, only for the All-NBA point guard to join another conference foe, it feels like the Heat could be heading for a step back this year.
Of course, it’s hard to completely count out a team coached by Erik Spoelstra and led by Jimmy Butler, but let’s not forget they needed two play-in tournament games just to qualify for the playoffs last year. And the very team that beat them in the first qualifier came from their own division.
Listen, I’m fully prepared to be wrong on this one, but I just don’t like Miami’s roster. Had the Heat landed Lillard, my outlook would be completely different. But without him, they’re a lesser version of last year’s team that finished with the seventh best record in the East.
Gabe Vincent left for the Lakers, and Max Strus is on the Cavs now. So, the Heat are down two starters from last year’s improbable finals run. Sure, they’ll have Tyler Herro back from injury, but it’s not like they were without him in the regular season.
At +220 odds, I like the Atlanta Hawks more in this division, and that shouldn’t be much of shocker. The Hawks have a recent division title in 2020-21 and they beat Miami in the play-in tournament before taking two games from Boston in the playoffs.
Led by Trae Young and Dejounte Murray, I think Atlanta definitely makes the playoffs. The Heat could ultimately sneak in too, but barring some type of trade, I don’t think they win the Southeast over Atlanta.
It’s about time we start talking about the Orlando Magic as a team that could push for the playoffs. They have the reigning Rookie of the Year Paolo Banchero, and Franz Wagner has been a solid young player for them who was also one of the stars of the FIBA World Cup this summer. In general, there’s just a ton of talent across this roster.
That said, I don’t like them enough to say they’ll grab a top-six seed, but I could certainly see Orlando as a play-in tournament team and I’d bet on them to catch someone sleeping and punch their first ticket to the playoffs since 2019-20.
The funny thing about the Hornets is they’ve been rebuilding forever, and yet the Wizards, who just started their rebuild this offseason, already feel closer to a finished product than Charlotte.
The Hornets drafted LaMelo Ball three years ago and are somehow coming off their worst season since the year that landed them that pick. That losing record did land them Brandon Miller this summer, and he should be one of the best rookies this season. But I’m not expecting many wins from a team that should have been pushing for the playoffs by now.
Washington also won’t be making the playoffs this year, but they finally moved Bradley Beal to start a rebuild, so that’s part of the plan. The weird thing here is how many solid veterans are still on the roster, like Kyle Kuzma and Tyus Jones. If the Wizards don’t trade some those guys mid-season, they may end up winning more games than is actually ideal.
Unleashed from his backseat role in Golden State, Jordan Poole is going to have a bunch of freedom on that Wizards roster and that means he’s inevitably going to score a lot of points.
Now, I’m not ready to say he’s going to average 30 points per game, as so many others have projected. But I do think he’ll easily eclipse his career-high of 20.4 points from last season and place himself squarely in the conversation for the league’s Most Improved Player. He just scored 41 points in 27 minutes in Washington’s preseason win Wednesday against the Knicks.
Give his +1400 odds at BetMGM serious consideration.
