NC State vs. Kansas State Prediction, Preview, and Odds

Free Daily NBA Lock Pick, Tuesday December 26th: Charlotte vs LA Clippers 10:30pm ET

Five straight wins and four as underdogs gives the recent form edge to NC State as well, as they really closed the season strong. They beat Clemson, Miami, and North Carolina as part of that run, three pretty good teams in their own right, and ones that were actually laying points on NC State's own field. That's how off the market has been on the Wolfpack at times this year, and initially catching more than a field goal for this bowl game was too attractive for many to pass up. Now the spread is below that key number of three though, and it means NC State backers better like the Wolfpack's chances at an outright win quite a bit to get down now.

There is still plenty to like in that regard as well though, as NC State is still a team that's led by their defense, and that unit's already got the added plus of not having to face Howard in this game. It may not have mattered though, as the Wolfpack defense still ranks #25th in the country in points allowed (21.4), and they are 8th best in the country in Opponent Third Down Conversion Percentage at 28.97%. NC State's defense didn't allow more than 28 points in any of their eight ACC games this season, so a Big 12 offense with a backup QB won't phase them at all.

Offensively, there is still plenty to be desired from the Wolfpack, even with Armstrong at the helm, as they are basically a bottom-third unit ( team link) in the country right across the board. They are an opportunistic bunch though with all the short fields they get from their defense, as they know that they can win more often than not just by mitigating their own mistakes. That's how reliant NC State is on their phenomenal defense.

On paper, this contest sets up well for NC State's defense to take the reigns once again, as there is just so much change on Kansas State's offense. Too much change makes it really hard to sustain offensive drives against anyone, let alone a great defense like NC State has.

Not only are the Wildcats going to be without QB Will Howard, but offensive coordinator Collin Klein has moved on as well, taking the same position at Texas A&M. Backup RB Treshaun Ward is already in the transfer portal as well, as 1005 rushing yards are lost between Ward and Howard missing this game. An interim offensive coordinator doesn't help the cause either, and when you add in an opt-out from second-leading WR Phillip Brooks (589 receiving yards), there is just so much change with the Wildcats offense that they are nearly impossible to get behind in this game.

It means QB Avery Johnson likely gets the nod, and he's a run-first QB that did have six rushing touchdowns this season. It was all spot play for him though when he's mopping up during garbage time as well, so it's hard to really know what you're going to get from him and the rest of this skeleton Kansas State offense.

Defensively, two starting defensive backs – Kobe Savage and Will Lee – are portal absences, and they played a big part in Kansas State's defense owning the 7th best Opponent Third Down Conversion Percentage (28.67%) in the country. It's a unit that's been thin at linebacker all year as well, so more losses deeper in the Wildcats defense is only going to hurt this team more. Kansas State already owns a 3-1 O/U record in their last four thanks in large part to their defense allowing at least 25 points in all of them, and you just aren't going to beat this Wolfpack team if at all when you give up that many points.

Tuesday's Top Plays

Tim "Money" Michael - 7-1-1 NBA Run Grab Tim's Tuesday NBA Best Bet For Just $45 -

Will Rogers - 10-2 NBA Run - Snatch up Will's NBA Divisional Total Of The Year For Just $30 -

Tom Macrina - 17-8 CBB Run - Snag Tom's Tuesday Night CBB Best Bet For Just $29 -

Brick Haus Sports - 14-2 NHL Run - Grab Brick's Tuesday NHL 108 Best Bet For Just $29 -

Best Bets

Expecting just a few scores from Kansas State in this game puts far too much pressure on Armstrong and an inconsistent NC State offense to think this one can get up and over the total. A few turnovers that directly turn into scores always helps, but I don't think you want to count on that happening, and that might be what 'over' bettors ultimately need here.

The last thing NC State wants here is a game to get into the 50's, as their two biggest wins of the year – vs Clemson and vs Miami – finished with 41 and 26 points respectively. Grab the lead, use their defense to expand it, and then grind the game away is NC State's best path to success every time out there, and this game couldn't be more set up for that type of game script.

Kansas State's offense is a relative unknown with Johnson under center, and against the NC State defense, I'm not sure how anyone can expect anything but at least a few struggles and short drives from him. The Wildcats – like the Wolfpack – are a run-first team as it is, so I don't think we see too many aggressive chances with Johnson's arm, and NC State's offense travels in a similar boat.

Somewhere in the low 40's is where this NC State win tops out.