NCAA Football Predictions: Championship Week Opening Line Report and Picks
Welcome to the Doc's Sports NCAA Opening Line Report, where we give you an early look at the upcoming week's essential games. I will also analyze the opening line of select games that caught my attention and briefly explain my initial lean.
While "Rivalry Week" didn't produce many upsets (No. 10 Louisville and No. 19 Kansas State were the only Top 25 losses against unranked foes), the games were exciting nonetheless. Auburn sure didn't look like a 6-5, barely-eligible bowl team until giving up the game-winning touchdown on a 31-yard pass on 4th-and-goal and falling to their bitter rivals from Alabama 27-24. "The Game" certainly lived up to its billing, with No. 3 Michigan prevailing against No. 2 Ohio State 30-24. No. 4 Washington defeated in-state rivals Washington State 24-21 after the Huskies rolled the dice and came up big on a 4th-and-1 run from their 29-yard line with over a minute left. Nine games involving the Top 25 teams were one score or less.
If the tryptophan in your turkey didn't make you sleepy, watching the "Egg Bowl" between No. 12 Ole Miss and Mississippi State probably would have. Unless you had the under, as I recommended, then you would have cheered every glorious punt (16 of them). We split on the other two games, giving us a solid 2-1 weekend.
Doc’s Sports offers college football expert picks for every game on our college football predictions page.
Friday
Conference USA
New Mexico State vs. No. 25 Liberty (-10/54.5) 7 pm CBSSN
I don't know why, but I love rematches in the same season. This is precisely what we're getting with the CUSA Championship, as these two squads met back on Sep. 9, with Liberty winning rather handily 33-17. The Flames had a 526-339 yard advantage in total offense and won the turnover battle 3-1. Since that Week 3 loss, the Aggies have gone 9-1. They have an offense averaging 28.2 ppg, and the 21st-ranked defense allows 19.7 ppg. They'll need that defense, as Liberty has the 6th-ranked scoring offense with 40.1 ppg. First-year Liberty head coach Jamey Chadwell couldn't have asked for a better beginning: 12-0 and ranked 20th in the AP poll (25th in the CFP edition). The Flames' rushing attack leads the nation with 5.9 yards per carry and 295.4 yards per game on the ground, and it's gaining strength; in the last three games, they've averaged 331 yards. Liberty bludgeons their way to a cover to win the CUSA. PICK: Liberty -10
Pac-12 Championship
No. 6 Oregon vs No. 4 Washington (+9.5/66.5) 8 pm ABC
In keeping with the theme of rematches, this game will be "Must-See TV." How pissed off must the Huskies be? They've won the last two meetings against the Ducks, including a 36-33 victory this season, are on a 19-game win streak, and are a touchdown-and-half underdog. Having said all of that, I believe the oddsmakers have it right. Oregon has the 7th-best scoring defense in the country (15.9 ppg) and the 2nd-best scoring offense (45.2 ppg). In the loss this year, Oregon outgained Washington on the ground (204-99) and total yards (541-415). Oregon's QB, Bo Nix, had a fantastic game, going 33-44 (75%) for 337 yards and 2 TDs. They haven't been tested since, as the Ducks' smallest margin of victory was 9 points against USC. While the Huskies are 12-0 SU, they're only 5-6-1 ATS (the Ducks are 11-1 SU but 9-2-1 ATS). Is it possible that Oregon's head coach, Dan Lanning, will run another fake field goal? Oregon has a lot of pent-up frustration with their losses against Washington and will use those failures to propel them to a sound victory. Pick: No. 6 Oregon -9.5
Saturday
American Athletic Championship
No. 25 SMU vs No. 23 Tulane (-5.5/48.5) 4 pm ABC
While this game will not be a rematch from the regular season, it should be exciting nonetheless. SMU's 41.8 ppg on offense is tied with the 2019 squad as the highest-scoring team in school history. Five different Mustang ball carriers have rushed for three or more touchdowns. Hell, they've even scored five defensive touchdowns, tied with five other teams for the most this season. They have eight different receivers with 300+ yards receiving. Their passing attack, ranked 16th in the nation, averages 291.9 yards per game. On the defensive side of the ball, the Mustangs are an impressive 13th in the country at 17.7 ppg. They have the ferocious front seven with 40 sacks on the season, 4th in the NCAA, led by Miami, Florida transfer Elijah Roberts with 8.5. The only bad thing you can say about SMU is they're winless this season in the Big 12 (both of their losses were to Oklahoma and TCU). The Mustangs are 7-5 ATS on the season and 5-2 ATS over their last seven contests. Tulane will rely heavily on their defense, which gives up 18.3 ppg. The Green Waves freshman phenom RB Makhi Hughes has 1,246 yards and seven touchdowns on the ground. Our models have SMU winning by two touchdowns and the total flying over 48.5. SMU may be 9-0 in their last nine games, but they're only 3-6 ATS during that stretch. For the first time all season, the OLR is recommending a two-team parlay of SMU +5.5 and over 48.5. PICK: 2-leg parlay of SMU +5.5/OVER 48.5
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