NCAAF Big 12 Championship Betting Odds, Spreads & Picks 2023

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02 December 2023

NCAAF Big 12 Championship Betting Odds, Spreads & Picks 2023

While our college football picks don't have much faith in Texas to convert on its scoring opportunities, Oklahoma State's Ollie Gordon should make his mark on the Big 12 championship.

The Texas Longhorns may think they need to wow the College Football Playoff selection committee, but first, they must establish control against the Oklahoma State Cowboys.

Given one particular Texas weakness, that may prove tougher than it should be. Combine that season-long reality with the Longhorns’ strong defense, and a clear college football odds angle reveals itself for this afternoon.

It will be Texas’s last trip to the Big 12 title game, and while the Longhorns are hefty favorites, our free college football picks and predictions doubt them for Oklahoma State vs. Texas on Saturday, December 2.

Oklahoma State vs Texas best odds

Oklahoma State vs Texas picks and predictions

One particular Texas failing exposes it as anything but a national title contender. The Longhorns might claim they are back, but it’s hard to believe that when they average less than a field goal on each quality drive. Where it matters most, Texas fails more often than not. Only 17 teams in the country are worse at finishing quality drives than the Longhorns are.

At this point, that is not a casual failing. It is who they are, averaging just 2.93 points per scoring opportunity.

To put a finer point on it, Texas ranks No. 130 in the country in touchdowns per trips to the red zone, turning just 17 of 39 red-zone possessions into touchdowns, 44%. Context: The only teams worse than the Longhorns this season were Iowa, Louisiana-Monroe, and Kent State.

No national title contender can survive like that.

Frankly, it’s hard to imagine a conference champion with such a weakness. (Maybe file that fact away when considering the Big 10 championship game, as well.)

So, even if Texas’s effective offense — it does rank No. 26 in the country in expected points added per snap, per cfb-graphs.com — finds success Saturday, everything this season tells us it will fail too often where it matters most to build up a significant lead — the kind of lead that would turn this game into an all-out blowout.

Meanwhile, the Longhorns’ stronger half, its defense, should be able to exert its will. Even with momentary Heisman candidate Ollie Gordon II at running back, Oklahoma State throws the ball more often than should be expected, and it does so with inconsistent success, ranking No. 76 in the country in EPA per dropback.

Texas will hold up against either aspect of that offensive attack, reaching the brink of the Playoff mostly thanks to its defense, not something generally anticipated from a Steve Sarkisian-coached team.

These thoughts create two possible game flows to consider. Perhaps the Longhorns find the end zone more consistently than they have all season, turning quality drives into touchdowns for a change. They will need quality drives, because the Cowboys do not give up a bounty of explosive plays. If Texas solves its greatest worry for an afternoon, then it may build enough of a lead to make Oklahoma State desperate, at which point its faltering passing game will be hemmed in by a knowing Longhorns defense.

Or, Texas continues to struggle where it matters most, keeping Oklahoma State close enough for Mike Gundy to turn to his single best player, and Gordon would grind the game down to keep things interesting.

In either scenario — a blowout built on a few successful Longhorns possessions and a suffocating defensive approach or a tight game due to continued Texas failures near the end zone that then embolden Okahoma State — it will not be a game with repeated offensive successes.

My best bet: Under 55 (-110 at Caesars)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Oklahoma State vs Texas same-game parlay

Under 55

Oklahoma State +15.5

Ollie Gordon anytime touchdown

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This handicapper’s stance for much of the season has been that Texas’s inability to convert where it matters most would hand it a second loss. And it repeatedly very nearly has.

The Longhorns scored 30 points on seven quality drives in their loss to Oklahoma, a 4.3 average that is obviously much better than their season-long average, but also a number too low for what is effectively Texas at its best. Consider the rest of this weekend: Of the four other Power Five conference championship games, only Iowa and Louisville have points per quality drive averages lower than 4.2. Washington, Oregon, Georgia, Alabama, Michigan, and Florida State all manage at least 4.2 points per quality drive at their worst moments. Texas does it at its best.

That kind of ineffectiveness should give Oklahoma State enough of a cushion to stay within three possessions much of the game, and if need be, score a garbage-time touchdown to cover this spread.

As for a Gordon touchdown, few things seem more likely than Gordon reaching the end zone. He boosted his totals in the regular-season finale, scoring five times against BYU, but even before that, he had crossed the goal line in six of his last seven games.

In total, Gordon scored more than half of the Cowboys’ offensive touchdowns this year, 21 out of 40.

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Oklahoma State vs Texas spread and Over/Under analysis

Go back through the Longhorns’ November, excluding a Black Friday rout of woeful Texas Tech. They beat Kansas State by three points in overtime, TCU by three points, and Iowa State by 10. That may have been a 1-1-1 record against the spread, but none of it was impressive.

Texas averaged 4.2 points per quality drive in those three games, even its best work barely able to get by those opponents.

That continued failure, the one repeated and emphasized here, may finally give the Longhorns their second loss, as outrageous as that seems as 15.5-point favorites.

That number opened at -13.5 last weekend before ticking to -14.5 by Monday and rising to -15 and -15.5, depending on your book, by Thursday.

The total opened at 54.5 before quickly rising to 55 and 55.5, where it has remained.