NCAAF Week 11 Betting Odds, Spreads & Picks 2023

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06 November 2023

NCAAF Week 11 Betting Odds, Spreads & Picks 2023

Ball State has won three of the last four rivalry meetings with Northern Illinois and is fetching more than 10 points in the 2023 edition. Our NCAAF betting picks suggest you take those points in what should be another tight affair.

The Battle for the Bronze Stalk takes place Tuesday night when the Ball State Cardinals travel to Dekalb, Illinois for a MACtion matchup with the Northern Illinois Huskies.

The college football odds favor the Huskies by 10.5 points for what is the youngest rivalry game in the MAC. The five previous installments of this series have ended with a winning margin of eight points or less, so can we expect another close one at Huskies Stadium?

Join me as I break it all down and give my best free college football picks for this installment of the Battle for the Bronze Stalk on Tuesday, November 7.

Ball State vs Northern Illinois best odds

Ball State vs Northern Illinois picks and predictions

The Battle for the Bronze Stalk is what they call the youngest rivalry in the MAC between the Ball State Cardinals and Northern Illinois Huskies. Tuesday marks the 15th meeting of this series, and while NIU is 7-3 over the last meetings, the Cardinals have won three of the last four.

For as lopsided as this series has been over the last decade, the last five matchups have been decided by fewer than eight points. Ball State won last season's edition in overtime and these games are generally tight and decided by a miscue.

Ball State has had issues scoring the football this season, beginning with the quarterback position. They’ve deployed three quarterbacks this season, and in the hopes of getting more explosive on offense, head coach Mike Neu finally decided on sophomore quarterback Kiael Kelly.

Kelly is a dual-threat QB, but his major threat is his feet. The sophomore signal-caller has scampered for 90+ yards in three of his last four starts and is second on the team in rushing yards. He’ll throw the ball 16-20 times and has five Cardinals with 100+ rushing yards. On Tuesday night, he and running back Marquez Cooper will be the main weapons Nue deploys.

Cooper is 326 rushing yards away from his third-consecutive 1,000-yard season. He’s scored three of the Cardinals' 17 offensive TDs this season, and Ball State will need Cooper to have a big game because NIU can’t stop the rush.

Northern Illinois boasts the third-best passing defense nationally, but they struggle to stop the rush and allow 167 rushing yards per game. This is a good thing for the Cardinals because if they successfully rush the ball, two things happen — the clock keeps moving and they give their defense a chance to stop NIU quarterback Rocky Lombardi.

The Cardinals defense has come alive of late, allowing just 19.5 points per game over its previous four contests. They're 33rd against the rush and 68th against the pass — they'll need to play well if they want to slow down Lombardi.

The Huskies, meanwhile, have been hit or miss offensively. They’ve outscored their opponents in the second half of their last four games 74-23. Lombardi threw for 293 yards with three TD scores and an interception in their Week 10 away loss to Central Michigan. Seven wideouts have 100+ receiving yards and running back Antari Brown has scampered for 674 yards with three TDs.

The Cardinals have covered the spread in their last three and I see them covering the +10.5 on Tuesday. The winning margin over the last five Bronze Stalk matchups has been eight points or fewer, and the Ball State defense is good enough to get the stops needed to stay within the number.

My best bet: Ball State +10.5 (-115 at FanDuel)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

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Ball State vs Northern Illinois same-game parlay

Ball State +10.5 (-115)

Under 43.5 (-115)

First-half Under 20.5 (-105)

The Bronze Stalk rivalry is fun to watch and FanDuel has given us some decent markets to put together. Covering the spread is the key to our SGP card, and the Cardinals will be able to do this behind a stout rushing attack and vastly improved defense.

The total was my second favorite play for this game. The Cardinals defense has allowed 19 points per game over its past four and the Huskies' 9.8 first-half points scored is one of the lowest marks in the nation.

The Huskies don’t score points in the first half and allow the 43rd-fewest first-half points per game. The Cardinals defense has been stout early over their previous four games. I expect the defenses to be ferocious on Tuesday.

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Ball State vs Northern Illinois spread and Over/Under analysis

FanDuel opened Northern Illinois at -330, and that number has shifted to -375. This move is likely because NIU has won three of their past four contests, and Ball State has difficulties scoring the football.

The spread opened at NIU -8.5 (-110) and moved to NIU -10.5 (-105), but most of the sportsbooks are at -10 (-110). I happily bet the +10.5 (-115), but I would have accepted +10 and would still lean on Ball State to cover.

The total opened at 43.5 (-115), and that number hasn’t budged. The vig dipped to -105, and that’s a good price for a CFB total and well below the -110 to -118 the other major sportsbooks have on offer.

If there was one bet I'm leaning towards, it is for Ball State to win this contest. They are 0-5 on the road this season with a 2-7 overall record, but beating the Huskies would make their season. The Cardinals have won three of their last four meetings with NIU, but +290 isn’t a good enough price for me to bite.