Nets vs. Sixers prediction: injuries loom large in Atlantic Division showdown

Our Nets vs. Sixers prediction comes at the best time, as both teams are streaking up the Eastern Conference leader board.

Following a disastrous start to the season, Brooklyn has put all the pieces together under head coach Jacques Vaughn. Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant are a masterful one-two punch, while Nic Claxton is becoming the team’s X-factor.

Meanwhile, Philadelphia is 18-4 over its past 22 games and is now second in the Eastern Conference standings. Joel Embiid is still an MVP candidate.

However, this isn’t just a must-watch NBA game, it’s a must-bet game.

Spread: Nets +5 (-110) vs. 76ers -5 (-110)

Moneyline: Nets (+170) vs. 76ers (-205)

Total: Over 226 (-110) | Under 226 (-110)

Under 226 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook

Unfortunately, this matchup is riddled with injuries.

Durant is still injured with his MCL strain. Meanwhile, Embiid is questionable with a foot injury, per Underdog NBA on Twitter.

Durant will not play this game, but Embiid will be a game-time decision. That makes many of our handicaps on this game conditional, depending on the final injury decision.

As always, ensure you stay informed on the injury reports before making any wagers.

That said, the under is a solid angle for this matchup.

First, the total will drop if Embiid is officially ruled out, whether because sportsbooks adjust their lines or steam movement from the public. So, betting the under early could give us an advantage through closing line value.

Second, the Nets are an under team without Durant, as opponents can key in on Irving, and the Nets rely more on Claxton’s defense to keep them in games. The under is 7-2 in the Nets’ past nine games.

Speaking of Claxton, the young center has transformed the Nets’ interior defense. He blocks more shots than anyone except Jaren Jackson Jr. and has the fifth-best Estimated Defensive plus-minus in the NBA, per Dunks and Threes.

The Nets can defend Embiid and Co. better than they ever have before.

Third, the Sixers will play at a slow pace either way. Per Dunks and Threes, Philadelphia plays at the 25th-fastest pace in the NBA with the 27th-longest average offensive possession length.

And I’m a little hesitant about how good the Sixers are. This recent 18-4 stretch has come against severely weak competition, as they’ve played only four teams with a top-10 adjusted net rating, per Chris Baker of The Action Network.

The Sixers may be a tad overvalued entering this game, and we could expect some regression against a real opponent.

Ultimately, there are too many reasons to bet on a low-scoring affair, and sharp bettors have recognized that. The Action Network App has tracked sharp and smart money coming in on the under 226 (-110) available at Caesars Sportsbook.

I’ll tail the sharps and make my best bet under 226 (-110) for this Wednesday night prime-time game.