Nets vs. Warriors prediction: NBA odds, picks, best bets for Monday

Coming off a 141-134 loss to Atlanta in a game where Stephen Curry’s 60-point effort still wasn’t enough to secure a victory, the Golden State Warriors continue their five-game road trip when they visit Brooklyn on Monday night. 

At 21-25, the Warriors are 12th in the Western Conference and 1.5 games outside of the playoff play-in tournament. 

While there’s still an outside chance for postseason glory, this Warriors team is far removed from the one we’ve seen dominate the NBA landscape over the last decade. 

Injuries and age have led to the decline for Golden State, which has had to take a different approach to winning games this season.

In this preview, I’ll share how bettors can profit from this 2024 version of the Warriors.

You only have to go back two seasons to find a Warriors team that finished second in TeamRankings’ defensive efficiency (104.2 points allowed per 100 possessions) and won their fourth NBA title in an eight-year span.

And while the Warriors are widely known for their offensive prowess, they only finished 13th in offensive efficiency during that championship season.

No one would dispute that it’s much more challenging for teams to play defense in this current NBA climate, but the Warriors have had a precipitous diminution over the past two seasons. 

For example, it was the Celtics whom the Warriors defeated in the 2022 NBA Finals. Boston actually pipped Golden State in defensive efficiency, leading the league with 103.6 points allowed per 100 possessions. 

In the following campaign, Boston’s defensive efficiency worsened by five points (108.6). However, this increase was widely consistent with the league as a whole, given the Celtics still finished third, with Cleveland leading the league with 107 points allowed per 100 possessions.

This season, the Celtics are playing better defense with a 108.1 value, while the Warriors have gone from a 110.4 rating to 114.1 since winning the title.

Offensively over the last three years, the Warriors efficiency has gone from 109.6 to 111.8 to  114.2 this season.

Thus, unless they drastically change the personnel on their team to improve defensively, they’ll have no choice but to rely on their offense to do the heavy lifting. 

The Nets are going through an interesting spell where they’re playing at a faster pace than we’re accustomed to seeing.

Over the past three games, Brooklyn is averaging 104.4 possessions compared to its season average of 102 per game. 

Golden State likely won’t object to a faster pace as it averages 104.2 possessions, which slightly increases to 104.5 on the road.

Moreover, Brooklyn’s pace has led to an increased average of 21 fastbreak points during this recent stretch – 6.5 points higher than its season mark.

Those fastbreak opportunities have also created some open perimeter shots, with Brooklyn averaging a league-best 19 3-pointers over the three games. The Nets rank sixth on the year with 14 3-point field goals per game.

With Brooklyn’s 3-point shooting being nearly six percent higher than its season average, I’d expect another heat check against the Warriors.

Defensively, the Nets have been vulnerable, with opposing teams averaging 118.5 points per 100 possessions during this recent period. 

Thus, with this game potentially setting up for another fast pace, the Warriors should be well-positioned for a big offensive showing.

I was surprised to see Golden State open as an underdog (+2) in this spot. However, its overall inconsistency as a team below .500 is enough to put me off this game. 

Instead, it’s the Warriors’ team total of 117.5 that’s caught my attention.

The Warriors have exceeded this number in six straight games, and their team total is 8-2 to the over in the last 10.

Pick: Warriors team total over 117.5 (-112, BetRivers)