New England Revolution vs FC Cincinnati MLS Odds, Picks and Predictions April 29
Two sides on a historical course clash when New England and FC Cincinnati take the field Friday night. Our MLS picks have the right angle to take in what should be a hotly-contested match.
The top two point-earners in Major League Soccer seek sole possession of first place in the Eastern Conference on Saturday, when the New England Revolution host FC Cincinnati at Gillette Stadium.
With each club sitting on 20 points, the Revolution currently hold the top spot in the conference due to a superior goal differential, and will want to put a bit of distance between their opponents and pick up their sixth win in seven home outings. That’s very possible considering FC Cincinnati has taken just five of a possible 12 points on the road thus far.
Will the Revs continue their longest unbeaten home run in the league this season, or will the Orange and Blue end a six-match winless streak against New England? We dive into those topics in our New England Revolution vs. FC Cincinnati betting picks and predictions for Friday, April 28.
New England Revolution vs FC Cincinnati best odds
New England Revolution vs FC Cincinnati picks and predictions
A matchup like this one isn’t just rare in MLS — it’s unheard of. According to Opta, this will be the first time in league history that a pair of teams with at least 20 points each will have faced each other within their first 10 matches of the season.
But the matchup between these two sides becomes a bit easier to predict when you dive into some of the advanced metrics. Goalkeeper Djordje Petrovic has been a wall at the back for the Revs, and a key reason why they’ve dropped just two points in their first six home matches of the season. Despite having faced the fifth-most efforts on goal so far this season, he’s second in save rate with an 84.4% save percentage while ranking second in total saves.
His performance has allowed the Revs to concede just eight goals through the first nine matches of the campaign, despite a 9.9 post-shot expected goal (xG) mark. At Gillette Stadium, Petrovic has conceded just three goals through six matches while keeping a trio of clean sheets.
On the other end of the pitch, the attack is in fine form as well. They’ve scored 15 goals this season, and their 14 non-penalty goals have come on an xG of just 12.3 goals. That will come in handy against an FC Cincinnati side conceding the eighth-fewest efforts on goal per match, and holding their opponents to nearly a full goal below expected.
The Revs rank ninth in the league in passes leading to shot attempts from live play, an area where Cincinnati ranks ninth-worst. FCC has also allowed the fourth-most touches inside their penalty area, and given New England’s scoring form, that could cause some real problems.
FC Cincinnati has the best home record in the league so far, but their away form has been lacking. Meanwhile, the Revs have been outstanding at home, and their last three matchups with Cincinnati at Gillette Stadium have seen them outscore the Orange and Blue 11-4 with two wins and a draw.
Cincinnati got blitzed 5-1 by St Louis in their last away match, and lost by the exact same scoreline in the US Open Cup a year ago at Gillette. While I don’t see them getting beaten that badly, I do see them losing to a Revolution side that is simply playing well above where the numbers indicate they should be.
My best bet: Revolution moneyline (+115 at bet365)
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New England Revolution vs FC Cincinnati side analysis
The Revs opened as 3-way line favorites at -125 but enough money has come in on the visitors to the point that they’re now getting +110 to +115 across the board. New England will be missing goalkeeper Jacob Jackson, along with winger Nacho Gil and midfielder Thomas McNamara.
Cincinnati will be thrilled to have midfielder Yuya Kubo back in the starting lineup for the first time since their win over Seattle back on Matchday 3, after he came off the bench against Louisville City in the US Open Cup on Wednesday. Defender Santiago Arias will miss out, though, as he picked up a thigh injury in the match.
The Revs have won seven of their 10 matches in all competitions this season, with only a loss at LAFC having blemished their record. As for Cincinnati, they’ve won just once on the road through four matches but they also have seven wins in 10 matches with just one defeat.
While the Orange and Blue have kept two clean sheets in their four away matches, they’ve conceded eight goals in the other two. They’ve also scored just five goals in total across the four matches, and now must find a way to beat a New England side that has outscored their five MLS opponents 12-2 through at home. That’s another reason why I’m all-in on the hosts to take all three points in this matchup.
New England Revolution vs FC Cincinnati Over/Under analysis
Of their 10 matches in all competitions, six of New England’s matches have gone Over the 2.5 goal mark. Five of their matches saw both teams score, while only one of the matches has gone fully scoreless. Their last five MLS matches have seen a total of 14 goals scored. Four of their six home matches in all competitions have seen three or more goals, with five of them featuring at least two tallies.
With the visitors, it’s either been all or nothing for the total. Two of Cincinnati’s four away matches have seen six goals each, while the other two saw one or fewer goals. In fact, six of their 10 matches in all competitions haven’t even seen two goals with the four. Their five clean sheets are the most in the league, and both teams have scored in just three of their matches.
Both of these teams allow opponents to get into their penalty area, as they each rank in the Top 4 in penalty touches allowed. But both keepers are also playing well this season and negating many of the opportunities that come their way.
That’s why I’d likely stay away from the Total, which is juiced quite a bit towards the Over. In fact, Fanduel’s price of -132 for the Over 2.5 is the only place where you can get it below -140. If you’re into trends, the Over is the way to go though — the last four meetings between the two teams have featured at least four goals each.
New England Revolution vs FC Cincinnati game info
New England Revolution vs FC Cincinnati key injuries
New England Revolution: Jacob Jackson GK (Out), Nacho Gil F (Out), Thomas McNamara (M).
FC Cincinnati: Santiago Arias D (Out), Yuya Kubo M (Probable).
New England Revolution vs FC Cincinnati weather
It could be a miserable night for players and fans alike. Temperatures will be in the low 40s with winds in the low teens, but there will be a better than 50% chance of rain throughout the contest.
