NFC East 2023 Division Winner Odds and Predictions

Since the NFL went to four-team divisions starting in 2002, the NFC East has largely been dominated by the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles.

Over the last two decades, the Eagles, who finished atop the division last year on the way to reaching the Super Bowl, have won the division nine times, while the Cowboys, who most recently won the division in 2021, have claimed six NFC East titles in that span.

Will that remain the case in the 2023 NFL season? Barring the highly unlikely, it will. But will the favored Eagles fend off their rivals to repeat? No one has won back-to-back titles in the NFC East since Philadelphia’s run of four straight from 2001 to 2004, so history is against them, even the odds aren’t.

Odds to Win the NFC East in 2023

Odds are courtesy of Bovada as of Wednesday, July 26, 2023.

• Philadelphia Eagles -130
• Dallas Cowboys +200
• New York Giants +750
• Washington Commanders +1200

NFC East 2023 Division Breakdown

Philadelphia Eagles (-130)

Last year, the 14-3 Eagles finished two games ahead of the 12-5 Cowboys, in the process claiming the top seed in the NFC.

Entering the 2022 season, there were a lot of questions about whether or not the Eagles could be a contender with Jalen Hurts. Those questions were answered rather resoundingly, as Hurts finished behind Patrick Mahomes for NFL MVP honors and put in a Super Bowl MVP-worthy performance in the Eagles’ close loss to the Mahomes and the Chiefs.

What can Hurts and the Birds do as a follow-up to last season’s success?

Well, recent history is pretty ominous. As mentioned above, no one has repeated in the NFC East in nearly two decades. But disappointment has also been the norm for defending NFC champions.

From 1970 to 1997, seven franchises repeated as NFC champions. Since then, only one franchise–the Seattle Seahawks in 2013 and 2014–has won consecutive NFC titles.

So, if those trends continue, the Eagles are going to fall short of expectations this season.

Dallas Cowboys (+200)

There is a lot of pressure on the Eagles, but no one in the NFC East–and perhaps in the NFL–faces as much pressure entering the season as the Cowboys.

Part of that can be attributed to their place in the public eye, with the Cowboys a frequent topic of discussion and derision by the likes of Stephen A. Smith.

But their talent is also a big reason why expectations are often high for the Cowboys. They are again ahead of this season, with only the Eagles and San Francisco 49ers sporting shorter NFC championship odds.

If they don’t win the NFC East at minimum, will it spell the end for Mike McCarthy and Dak Prescott in Dallas? A lot of eyes will be on the side of the ball those two names are associated with.

After failing to get past the divisional round yet again, multiple notable changes were made in the offseason.

Brian Schottenheimer is in for Kellen Moore as offensive coordinator, and Tony Pollard replaced Ezekiel Elliott–who could return to the team–as the lead back after posting his first 1,000-yard season in 2022.

But the biggest change might be the addition of veteran receiver Brandin Cooks. It gives Dak a strong #2 option, which was desperately needed with the rather glaring drop-off that existed between CeeDee Lamb and the rest of Dallas’s pass-catchers last season.

The pieces are there for the Cowboys to beat out the Eagles in the NFC East and be a serious contender. Can they get out of their own way to do so?

New York Giants (+750)

Last season, the Giants were one of the league’s biggest surprise success stories under first-year head coach Brian Daboll. They went 9-7-1 and reached the divisional round of the playoffs, where they lost to the Eagles.

After going 12-25 in his first three NFL seasons, the turnaround for the team, as well as one for himself, was good enough to land QB Daniel Jones a four-year, $160 million extension in the offseason.

Whether in the NFL, NBA, or MLB, we have seen plenty of players step their game up in a contract year, just as Jones did, then fall flat after receiving a hefty new deal.

Will it play out similarly for Jones? The next man up behind Jones is Tyrod Taylor, who has spent most of his career, save for three seasons with the Buffalo Bills, in a reserve role. So, a lot is dependent on Jones staying healthy and not being a one-year wonder.

Jones isn’t asked to do as much as, say, Hurts and Prescott are for their teams, but he needs to be efficient and minimize mistakes, which he did well overall last season.

If he does that, the Giants will be in position to contend for a playoff berth again, even if they don’t appear to be close to the same level as their highly heralded NFC East rivals. They should once again be stout defensively, and a healthy and motivated Saquon Barkley will be out to prove he is worthy of a long-term deal, whether with the Giants or somewhere else.

If he doesn’t, there are going to be a lot of loud whispers about the contract he received.

Washington Commanders (+1200)

While there is a lot to look forward to for the other three teams in the NFC East, there is question upon question upon question when it comes to the Commanders.

Sure, they were in contention for a playoff berth deep into last season before finishing with an 8-8-1 record.

But what can we expect from Washington, who will be turning to someone new at quarterback yet again?

This time, it’s second-year QB Sam Howell, who started the final game of last season and is now QB1 with Heinicke now in Atlanta and Carson Wentz a free agent after a single season with the Commanders.

Can Washington generate enough on offense to win games? Will their defense, which was hit hard by injuries last season, perform well enough to minimize the pressure on a unit being led by an inexperienced starting QB?

It’s entirely possible that things could come together for the Commanders. They weren’t expected to win the division in 2020, but they did so, and 8-8-1 last season is a lot better than most would have projected after they opened the season 1-4. For now, though, they are firmly in fourth in the NFC East, and not just in terms of alphabetical order.

NFC East 2023 Division Winner Prediction: Dallas Cowboys (+200)

There hasn’t been a repeat champion in the NFC East since Donovan McNabb’s heyday, and that is not going to change this season.

It’s difficult to picture the Eagles have a major drop-off unless they suffer some major injuries, and even if they don’t win the division, they will still comfortably land a place in the postseason.

But this year will be the Cowboys’ year, at least in the division. With Cooks in the fold and Pollard getting more opportunities to showcase his abilities as a dynamic weapon, Dallas should once again have one of the better offenses in the NFL.

Can their defense be trusted to make stops in key situations? That remains to be seen, but there is plenty of talent on that side of the ball. Adequacy goes a long way when your offense is productive enough to win most games.

The schedule isn’t without its challenges, as they face the AFC East–they have back-to-back road games against the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins in December–and face the 49ers and Chargers on the road as well.

But the same can be said for the Eagles, who have to go to Kansas City for a Super Bowl rematch with the Chiefs, also visit the Jets and Seahawks, and host the Vikings, Bills, and 49ers.

Ultimately, if the Cowboys don’t win the division, it will be by their own shortcomings. After all, they threw away big leads at Green Bay and Jacksonville and bookended the regular season with ugly offensive performances at Tampa Bay and Washington.

It will likely take at least 12 or 13 wins to win the NFC East, but even with a number of tough tests on their schedule, that is a very reasonable target for the Cowboys.