NFC South Division Odds: Picks, Predictions, and More

The NFC South will look much different this season as each team in the division will have a new Week 1 starting quarterback from a year ago.

With their trade for Derek Carr, the New Orleans Saints are favored to win the division, but the Atlanta Falcons aren’t too far behind. The Panthers and Buccaneers, meanwhile, have much lower expectations this season, with Carolina entering Year 1 of the Bryce Young era and Tampa Bay going from Tom Brady to Baker Mayfield.

In what might be the weakest division in the NFL, is the NFC South up for grabs, or is there an obvious favorite? Our experts break down the betting odds, give out their picks and predictions, and more.

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After two years of instability at the QB position without Drew Brees, the Saints made a big trade in acquiring Derek Carr. Despite a disappointing season in Las Vegas last season, Carr is expected to lead the Saints team to a division title. Chris Olave gives him an elite weapon at wide receiver, and New Orleans’ defense has a lot of talent across the board.

But the biggest factor working in the Saints’ favor is that they have the easiest schedule in the NFL this season. If the Saints can stay healthy and take advantage of their favorable schedule, they should be in the mix to make the playoffs.

The Falcons made a strong effort to improve their defense in free agency, most notably in signing safety Jessie Bates III. Atlanta also added another dynamic playmaker to their offense in No. 8 pick RB Bijan Robinson.

But their success this season will largely depend on first-year starting quarterback Desmond Ridder. Atlanta’s third-round pick in the 2022 NFL Draft, Ridder is still a complete unknown and their biggest question mark as a potential playoff team this season. Luckily for Ridder, however, he has a smart offensive coach in Arthur Smith and talented weapons around him to put him in position to succeed.

The Panthers made a big splash in their trade up for Young and were aggressive in surrounding him with veterans on offense with their signings of Miles Sanders, Adam Thielen, and Hayden Hurst. But does Young have enough help to lead the Panthers to the postseason right away?

Carolina’s offensive line struggled to protect Young in the preseason, but on the other side of the ball, the Panthers are loaded with talent. If they do surprise people in Year 1 under new head coach Frank Reich, it will be because of their defense, led by Brian Burns, Derrick Brown, and Jaycee Horn.

After slugging their way to a division title with an 8-9 record last season, the Buccaneers are not expected to win the NFC South for the third year in a row. Mayfield won the QB competition in the preseason, but is he just a temporary solution before Tampa Bay finds their long-term answer in the draft?

The Bucs still have a very talented WR duo in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, and their defense remains largely intact from years past, but they’re a distant last in odds to win the NFC South.

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NFC South Predictions

Bearman: The Saints have the easiest schedule in the NFL this season largely due to being the best team in their division and having 10 games against the NFC South and AFC South.

Early game lines have the Saints favored in 11 of 17 games, a one-point underdog in three or more, and an underdog of no more than three points in any game. I picked them to go over their win total (9.5) and to make the playoffs, and I will also be taking them to win their division.

The three games that the Saints have that differ from their division opponents are against the Giants, Rams, and Patriots — all winnable games. New Orleans has the only true veteran QB in the division in Carr, and I also love that their schedule out of the gate features six games vs. non-playoff teams from last year. A big start could put this away early.

Pick: New Orleans Saints to win the NFC South (+130 at BetRivers)

Soppe: I haven’t been shy about my support of the Saints as a sleeper NFC champion, and if they’re going to come even remotely close to doing it, they’ll need to win the South to set up a more favorable playoff schedule.

Mayfield is the second-most trustworthy quarterback in this division, so while I don’t think Carr has MVP potential, there’s little doubt in my mind that he gives this team a significant advantage over the rest of the division.

I truly think New Orleans is capable of outscoring teams, so the fact that their defense offers a high floor and grades as an above-average unit is simply icing on the cake.

Pick: New Orleans Saints to win the NFC South (+130 at BetRivers)

Katz: The Panthers enter the 2023 season with a rookie quarterback. While I do like Young’s long-term prospects, the team couldn’t have set him up worse for his debut NFL season.

Carolina has one of the weakest WR corps in the NFL and very well might have the worst offensive line in football. Young is going to take several sacks, and the Panthers are going to lose a lot of games.

The world has already written off the Bucs as the worst team in this division. However, they have two excellent wide receivers, which is more than the Panthers can say.

Pick: Carolina Panthers to finish last in the NFC South (+255 at DraftKings)