NFL Betting: Week 1 Best Picks and Advice

Stadium sports betting analyst Nate Jacobson breaks down every NFL season-opener point spread using lines as of Thursday morning.

The Browns are the favorite in their game against the Panthers. Deshaun Watson is suspended and Jacoby Brissett will start for Watson. The Browns traded Baker Mayfield to Carolina. The Panthers have more talent at nearly every position group.

Bills are the home underdog against the defending Super Bowl champions Rams. Rams QB Matthew Stafford has an injured throwing elbow. Bills had a chance to play at SoFi Stadium against Rams in last season's Superbowl.

Patriots are favored to beat Dolphins. The Patriots struggled on offense during the preseason. There is no offensive coordinator on the Patriots' coaching staff. Dolphins have a new head coach and a quarterback in Tua Tagovailoa. The line moved from Dolphins -2.5 to -3.

The Steelers are going through changes with Mitchell Trubisky getting the start after Ben Roethlisberger retired. Mike Tomlin is the head coach for the Steelers. The Steelers have a strong pass rush and should matchup well against the Bengals offensive line. Bengals won the AFC Championship Game and went to the Super Bowl.

Jaguars are favored to beat Commanders by 2.5 points. The Jaguars are expected to improve under Doug Pederson as head coach. They are also expected not to lose to Carson Wentz, who was traded to Commander from Colts.

The Chiefs moved from -3 to -6 to cover against the Cardinals. The Cardinals are 15-5-1 in Weeks 1-7 during the last three seasons.

The Raiders made the playoffs last season with a 10-7 record. They beat the Chargers team in an instant classic. The Raiders had a point differential of -65 last year and were 4-0 in games that went to overtime.

Vikings are a team I'm buying going into this season. Kevin O'Connell hired as the new head coach. The Vikings lost eight of their nine games by one possession last season and have one of the strongest home-field advantages in the NFL.

Giants are favored to beat Titans. The Titans were the No. 1 seed in the AFC this past season. They traded WR A.J. Brown to the Eagles on draft night. Titans' pass-catching options are uninspiring.

Cowboys are a prime regression candidate for this season. The Cowboys forced a league-high 34 turnovers in 2021. Buccaneers have some new pieces on the interior of their offensive line and Tom Brady was away from the team for part of August.

Ravens are playing at home against the Jets. Joe Flacco will start for New York.

Saints are a favorite to win the game at home against the Falcons. The Falcons have the lowest win total in the NFC at 4.5.

49ers are playing at the Bears on Sunday. Kyle Shanahan's team is talented and has a good chance to win. The Bears are a team that will play hard under their new coaching staff.

Eagles are playing at Lions. I have tempered expectations for both teams.

Colts are the AFC team I'm highest on to exceed expectations this season. Matt Ryan comes in to replace Carson Wentz and is a clear upgrade for an Indianapolis roster. The Texans have gotten support at +8 and +7.5 as home underdogs this week.

Broncos are the favorite at home against the Seahawks. Russell Wilson was traded to Denver this offseason. Geno Smith is in line to start for Seattle.