NFL Comeback Player of the Year odds: Bet on Damar Hamlin

The NFL Comeback Player of the Year betting odds have remained steady for most of the season with Buffalo Bills defensive back Damar Hamlin the clear favorite. The odds have tightened recently though with Cleveland Browns quarterback Joe Flacco closing the gap. Heading into Week 18, Hamlin is still the -140 favorite at Caesars Sportsbook but Flacco is now right behind him at +200. 

While the odds suggest Hamlin will win NFL Comeback Player of the Year, keep in mind he was once a -750 favorite during the season before Flacco began his magical run in Cleveland. According to the oddsmakers, the award is down to Hamlin and Flacco, but where is the value for bettors heading into Week 18? The answer may surprise you. 

NFL Comeback Player of the Year Odds

Damar Hamlin -140

Joe Flacco +200

Don't bet against Hamlin

When bettors think of "value" they often associate it with higher odds. That's not always the case. The value right now is clearly on Hamlin at -140. 

In any other year, Flacco is a lock to win the award. The former Super Bowl winning quarterback came off his couch to lead the Browns to the playoffs after starter Deshaun Watson was lost for the season. Flacco has thrown for 1,616 yards and 13 touchdowns, while leading Cleveland to a 4-1 record. The problem for Flacco is this isn't a normal year. 

Hamlin has been the obvious favorite since the odds were released following the cardiac arrest he suffered against the Bengals last January. Even though Hamlin has played just 17 snaps for the Bills this season, it's hard to imagine voters not giving the award to a player who returned to action after almost dying on the field just 12 months ago. 

The other negative Flacco faces is he won't play against the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 18 with the Browns resting their starters for the playoffs. That kills some of the momentum Flacco has built up over the last two weeks. 

Flacco's story is an amazing one, but it pales in comparison to Hamlin. One could argue the award should be more about what happens on the field and in that regard, Flacco is the clear winner. However, betting on these awards comes down to how you think people will vote. I just don't see a scenario where the voters give NFL Comeback Player of the Year to Flacco over Hamlin. 

Prediction

Damar Hamlin -140 to win NFL Comeback Player of the Year

It doesn't happen often but there is actually value on a -140 favorite. Flacco made an impressive late run but I expect Hamlin to still win the award by a wide margin. I think he should be closer to -300 heading into Week 18.