NFL Playoffs 2023: Divisional Round Schedule, Odds, Picks And ATS Betting Insight

The opening wild card round of the 2023 playoffs produced plenty of drama and higher scoring finishes. Four betting favorites won, but the Los Angeles Chargers did not after blowing a 27-0 lead and losing to the Jacksonville Jaguars 31-30. The four divisional round games and odds are set. The Bills vs Bengals game is the headliner and drawing the most early week betting action as the stakes rise and teams push towards a conference championship and a trip to Super Bowl LVII in Glendale, AZ on Feb. 12.

The New York Giants were the only road underdog to win outright in the wild card round. The Giants now tackle their division rival and NFC top seed Philadelphia Eagles in the the divisional round as a sizeable +7.5 point underdog. The Jacksonville Jaguars will shoot for more magic against the AFC top seed Kansas City Chiefs, who are the biggest favorite in the divisional round (-8.5). The total is up from 51.5 to 53.

Sunday’s games include the much anticipated Cincinnati Bengals vs. Buffalo Bills (-5.5) match-up in Buffalo with Pro Bowl QB’s Joe Burrow and Josh Allen. The total has dropped from 50.5 to 48, and the line is up Tuesday morning from -3.5 to -5.5. The early weather forecast shows a 40% chance of snow with freezing temperatures in the low 30’s and 10-20 MPH winds.

Early money is on the Bills, and BetMGM Vice President of Trading Jason Scott fired me a message. “The Bills-Bengals game is the best bet match-up,” while noting the sharp line move favoring the Bills.

The Dallas Cowboys rolled over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31-14 as my top bet and pick of the wild card round. Dallas rides QB Dak Prescott off his 5 TD performance (4 pass, 1 run) to San Francisco to tackle the 49ers, who are are down to a -3.5 point favorite from the opener of -4.5 points. San Francisco rides an 11-game winning streak with rookie QB Brock Purdy now 6-0 as a starter. Prescott (29) is the oldest quarterback remaining in the playoffs. The Cowboys play on six days rest while the 49ers have eight days off their 41-23 win and cover over the Seahawks.

Game odds from BetMGM refresh periodically and are subject to change.

• Jaguars at Chiefs(KC -8.5, o/u 53), 4:30 p.m. ET (NBC).
• Giants at Eagles (PHI -7.5, o/u 48), 8:15 p.m. ET (FOX)

• Bengals at Bills (BUF -4.5, o/u 48), 3:00 p.m. ET (CBS)
• Cowboys at 49ers (SF -4.5, o/u 46.5), 6:30 p.m. ET (FOX)

Types of betsand how to read the odds

The Chiefs (+280) and Bills (+325) remain the favorites to win the 2023 Super Bowl followed by the 49ers (+400) and Eagles (+500), according to adjusted Super Bowl odds at BetMGM.

Moneyline: Chiefs -450, Jaguars +340

The Chiefs went 7-1 at home this season and beat the Jaguars at home in November 27-17 as a 10-point favorite. The Chiefs rolled up nearly 500 yards offense in that contest and QB Patrick Mahomes passed for 331 yards and 4 touchdowns. Kansas City led the league in scoring averaging 29.2 points per game (25.1 at home). The Jaguars are the only remaining playoff team that had a losing road record (4-5). But Jacksonville has won six straight games, and three of those were on the road.

Moneyline: Eagles -350, Giants +275

NFC East rematch. The Eagles went 7-2 at home this season and won both meetings over the Giants 48-22 in December and 22-16 to close the regular season when the Giants had nothing to play for and rested more starters including QB Daniel Jones. The Eagles defense allowed a league-low 4.8 yards per play this season (Giants 5.7). Off a 31-24 wild card win over the Minnesota Vikings, one bettor is riding the G-men with BetMGM’s biggest bet in early week action.

“We took one bet of $110,000 on the Giants,” Jason Scott said.

Moneyline: Bills -225, Bengals +185

The Week 17 match-up between these two teams was cancelled in the first quarter after Bills DB Damar Hamlin had cardiac arrest following a tackle and collapsed on the field. The Bills went 7-1 at Highmark Stadium and led the AFC in scoring and yards at home averaging 31.9 points and 404 yards per game offense. The Bills 6.6 yards per play offense at home led the NFL. The Bengals averaged 24.1 points on the road - 2.0 points per game below their season average. Cincinnati’s offense also averaged just 323 yards per game and 5.1 yards per play on the road - 37 YPG below their season average.

Former NFL offensive lineman and current broadcaster and media entrepreneur Ross Tucker picked the Bengals and the Giants plus the points on his Even Money Podcast with professional sports bettor Steve Fezzik of Las Vegas. Tucker will be on the sidelines as part of the Bills-Bengals broadcast coverage.

Moneyline: 49ers -185, Cowboys +155

The 49ers have won 11 straight games and went 8-1 at home during the regular season with an average margin of victory in those eight home wins 28.6 to 9.5. San Francisco pulled away for a wild card win over Seattle, 41-23. The lone home loss was a bad one, 44-23 to the Chiefs the game prior to the start of the 11 game winning streak. The Cowboys were most impressive in burying the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the wild card round 31-14. San Francisco and Dallas rank No. 1 and No. 2 in Football Outsiders Defensive DVOA ratings.

I bet the Bills early, and Buffalo is now 4-2 SU but just 1-4-1 ATS vs playoff teams this season despite out-gaining them by 609 yards - best in the NFL with the 49ers. Buffalo beat Miami 34-31 in the wild card round and the Bills out-gained the Dolphins 423 (5.9 yards per play) to 231 (3.3). Three Bills turnovers allowed the Dolphins back in the game.

The Bengals had the miraculous 98-yard fumble return TD in the fourth quarter to beat the Ravens 24-17 and advance to play the Bills. Cincinnati lost the stats to Baltimore getting out-gained 364 (5.4) to 234 (4.3) while allowing 155 rushing yards. The Bengals were without two starting offensive linemen in the wild card game, and could be down as many as three on Sunday. Quarterback Joe Burrow was sacked four times by the Ravens, and the Bengals rushed for just 51 yards. Cincinnati is now 5-2 SU/ATS vs. playoff teams this season despite being out-gained by 460 yards.

The Bills also have star Pro Bowl QB Josh Allen and played the stronger strength of schedule with a top-4 DVOA Offensive and Defensive profile. The Buffalo Bills stampede their way into the AFC championship game.