NFL Upset Picks, Predictions Week 17: Will Packers Win Playoff Elimination Game?
Each week, we identify a trio of NFL upset picks that we believe will bemost profitable, and we offer our top three NFL upset picks for Week 17 basedon the best NFL odds.
Last week was a slow one for NFL upsetsuntil Sunday night when the New England Patriots beat the Denver Broncos,followed by the Las Vegas Raiders' Christmas Day upset of the Kansas CityChiefs and the Baltimore Ravens' underdog win against the San Francisco 49ers.
Overall, favorites went 12-4 SU. Still,we got great closing line value with two of our successful upset picks from aweek ago with the Atlanta Falcons and Cleveland Browns, two teams that kickedoff as small favorites after being listed as underdogs early in the week.
Here are our best NFL upset picks forWeek 17 (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a1-to-5-star scale).
NFLupset picks: Week 17
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NFL upset predictions
Raiders ML vs. Colts (+138 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐
We are making our first upset pick only athree-star play, as Las Vegas is prime for a letdown after its colossal roadupset of the Chiefs. However, we were thoroughly impressed with the Raiders'defense, which scored two touchdowns and held Patrick Mahomes to 235 yardspassing and a 31.6 QBR.
Raiders edge rusher Malcolm Koonce was aone-man wrecking machine with three sacks and four tackles for loss. Thatperformance came on the heels of him ranking in the top five of all edgerushers in pass rush win rate since Week 9, and his ability to get to thequarterback is a nightmare for offensive lines who also have to deal with MaxxCrosby.
The Colts have been a much better road team (5-3) than a home one (3-4),and the Raiders are more than capable of an upset after going 4-3 in the sevengames under interim head coach Antonio Pierce.
BetRivers is our go-to shop for thiswager, as it is the only one of our best sports betting apps offering better than +135 odds on theRaiders.
Chargers ML vs. Broncos (+205 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
The Denver Broncos' playoff chances fell to 4% with last week'sdisappointing loss to the New England Patriots. Now, Denver needs to win itsfinal two games to avoid a seventh straight losing season.
This week'sopponent, the Los Angeles Chargers, nearly pulled off the biggest upset of the weeklast week with a 24-22 loss to the Buffalo Bills.
It is clear that the Chargers are playing harder for interimcoach Giff Smith than they did for the fired Brandon Staley, and theysurprisingly lost a game in which they won the turnover battle 3-0 and possessedthe ball for six more minutes.
If the Chargers convert more of their drivesinto touchdowns instead of settling for field goals, they can beat a Broncos team that may be deflated after last week's loss.
New England finished with its second-highest point total of theseason last week, and the Chargers' defense forced Buffalo into four punts, which is a monumental accomplishment, considering the Bills entered lastweek with punts on nearly one of every four drives on the road, the lowest ratein the league.
We have our choice between Caesars and bet365 for this wager,the only two of our best sports betting sites offering better than +200 odds to back the underdogs.
Packers ML vs. Vikings (+118 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Green Bay entered last week ranked as abottom-three run defense and had allowed an average of more than 158 yardsrushing in the previous six games. And although it allowed 30 points to theCarolina Panthers, it held up well against the run, allowing just 96 yards and3.8 yards per rush.
The Packers can commit more defenders tostop the run against a Minnesota Vikings offense that could be without widereceiver Jordan Addison and tight end T.J. Hockenson, who left last week's lossto the Detroit Lions with an injury.
Packers quarterback Jordan Love hasplayed exceptionally of late, entering last week in the top five of allquarterbacks in QBR, touchdown passes, and completions since Week 12. Hefollowed that up with a 90.1 QBR and two touchdowns against Carolina while theoffense ground out 162 yards on 34 carries.
This is a four-star play, as Packers headcoach Matt LaFleur is 19-10 ATS as an underdog and has won 17 of 19 Decembergames. Meanwhile, Vikings quarterback Nick Mullens is 5-14 SU in 19 careerstarts, including a 3-9 career home record.
There is excellent value to be had atBetRivers, as most of our best sportsbooks have +110 odds or shorter to backGreen Bay on the moneyline.
NFLupset picks made Wednesday at 6:41 a.m. ET.
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