NFL Week 1 Best Bets: Steelers, Patriots, Browns, Giants, and Jets

Every week, you can find five ATS picks here from Vaughn Dalzell as he battles thousands of other contestants in the Circa Vegas Contest.

49ers (-2.5) at Steelers: O/U 41.0

The Steelers will open at home for the first time since 2014 and a sellout crowd will be more than eager to welcome the 49ers to Pittsburgh.

As someone who will be in attendance, I expect a rocking atmosphere to kick off Kenny Pickett’s second season as starting QB.

On the other sideline, San Francisco has had drama at that position all offseason that was conquered by trading Trey Lance to Dallas. Brock Purdy and Sam Darnold remain with Purdy listed as the starter.

The two defenses were elite last season during stretches and should be entering this year once again. Both squads led the NFL in interceptions during the regular season, so expect turnovers to be the determining factor.

It’s also worth noting that underdogs with a game total of 42 or lower perform well. Since 2018, those dogs with a game total of 42 or lower are 137-94-4 ATS (59.3%), plus an even better 55-30-1 ATS (64.7%) during Weeks 1-8.

Give me the Steelers +2.5 (-110) at home in Week 1 against the 49ers. I will be there waving my Terrible Towel, so let’s ride!

Pick: Steelers +2.5 (1u)

Eagles (-4) at Patriots: O/U 46.5

My favorite trend of Week 1, fading the loser of the previous Super Bowl, like the Philadelphia Eagles.

Since 2000, the loser of the previous Super Bowl is just 4-19 (17.3%) ATS in Week 1.

It’s hard to replicate the previous season’s success and now the Eagles, who were the best rushing attack in the NFL, have a plethora of new running backs alongside Jalen Hurts.

Philadelphia acquired De’Andre Swift and Rashaad Penny, plus retained Kenneth Gainwell and Boston Scott.

How the four of those will co-exist has to be proven and we could see slight growing pains as the often-injured Swift looks to be the clear-cut No. 1 all season.

Since Tom Brady’s left, the Patriots have gone 25-25 (50%) at home and don’t appear to have nearly as much talent as the Eagles.

However, in Week 1, you don’t need as much talent. This is an opportunity for Bill Belichick and the Patriots to make a statement against last year’s runner-up and NFC Champion and come out more prepared and with a new look offense with Juju Smith-Schuster, Ezekiel Elliot, and Mike Gesicki.

Give me the Pats +4 (-115) at home versus the Eagles in Week 1. I’d go down to +3 on New England.

Pick: Patriots +4 (1u)

Bengals (-2.5) at Browns: O/U 48.0

Cowboys (-3.5) at Giants: O/U 46.5

Bills (-2.5) at Jets: O/U 46.5

Another favorite Week 1 trend of mine is backing divisional home underdogs, like the Cleveland Browns.

Since 2012, Week 1 divisional home underdogs are 15-2 ATS (88.2%), including a 7-0 ATS winning streak since 2018.

Since 2005, they are 61-39-2 ATS (61%), so this has been and should continue to be a profitable trend.

Joe Burrow’s injury moved Cincy from -3 to -1 at Cleveland, but is back to +2.5 with the good news for Burrow, while bettors are lining up to take Dallas and Buffalo — moving those lines as well.

For Cleveland, the Browns are 5-1 in the last six meetings against the Bengals, plus Cincy has lost or won in OT every Week 1 over the past four season-openers (since 2019).

Brian Daboll was 10-2 ATS (83%) and 6-5-1 on the ML (55%) as an underdog last season. I believe New York’s ready to build off its first playoff berth since 2016 and if you remember Week 1 last year, New York isn’t timid when it comes to going for the win rather than a tie.

The last matchup is Buffalo at the New York Jets for Aaron Rodgers’ debut. I am not buying into either team’s hype completely but all New York was missing last season was a quarterback. This game could come down to the final possession and I like the Jets’ defensive opportunities over the Bills.

I played the Browns +2.5 (-110) as this moved from +3 in the offseason with Joe Burrow’s news, plus the Giants +3.5 (-110) and Jets +2.5 (-110). I believe all three can win outright.

The only other divisional home under in Week 1 is the Colts +5 versus the Jaguars, but I will pass on that game for now and add it as a half-unit play if it gets to +6 or +7.

Picks: Browns +2.5 (1u), Giants +3.5 (1u), Jets +2.5 (1u)

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