NFL Week 11 Primetime Parlay

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16 November 2022

The Tennessee Titans (6-3) and Green Bay Packers (4-6) draw the short straw this week, kicking off Week 11 of the NFL in a battle of last season’s top AFC and NFC seeds in primetime Thursday Night Football at Lambeau Field.

The Titans are coming off a hard-fought 17-10 win over the Denver Broncos while the Packers rallied to upset the Dallas Cowboys 31-28 in overtime. They’re both going to be looking to build on their respective winning performances in Week 11, but the quick turnaround and long injury lists facing each camp presents a challenge that they’ll have to overcome. It also makes for a tough game to handicap in the betting.

BetUS installs the Packers as the modest -165 home favorites and the Titans as the +145 underdogs in moneyline markets. The point spread is delicately nestled on a field goal while the total is projected to 41 points with the over and under juiced to -110, respectively.

Below, we’ve got you primed with a same-game parlay for this Week 11 TNF clash. Find out how we’re lining up our NFL picks, using the point spread and the total. We’ll preview the latest news, stats, injury reports and NFL odds for the Titans vs Packers and serve up our verdict with NFL predictions for your consideration

Let’s check the latest NFL odds, stats, injury reports, and NFL lines. We’ve plenty of Vegas NFL odds and NFL week 11 picks for you to consider.

Titans vs Packers Same-Game Parlay

First Leg: Packers -3
Second Leg: Over 41 (-110)

First Leg: Packers -3

The Packers needed to win last Sunday if only to salvage their season, and they did. That they did it in overtime after overcoming a 14-point deficit is only going to be a timely source of motivation on a short week ahead of this non-conference primetime showdown.

The Packers cracked the 30-point threshold for the first time this season. The offense put in a balanced performance with both the passing and rushing game powering to 200-plus yards and Aaron Rodgers enjoyed his best outing as he threw for three touchdowns for the first time in 2022..

The lookaheads for this game had the Packers favored at approximately -1½. But at the close of Sunday, the NFL line jumped out to Packers -3 at the sportsbook exchange. This is a clear reaction, at least in part, to Green Bay’s offensive explosion against Dallas.

Such a move would normally give savvy bettors pause. Especially for the side that just got pricier in the betting online markets. To move from -1½ to -3 isn’t chump change for a Packers team that has little margin for error with a 4-6 straight-up (SU) record, and that is merely 4-6-0 against the spread (ATS) with a 3.1 losing margin on average to boot.

When you add to that the fact that the Titans are perennially underrated but still have the league’s best ATS record at 7-2-0 ATS, it adds another layer to consider.

And yet, Tennessee’s performance last Sunday against the visiting Denver Broncos left much to be desired, even though it marked a return into the win column.

Ryan Tannehill returned in Week 10 to lead his side to the 17-10 win. He adds an aerial layer to the Tennessee offense, which can often be one-dimensional in its dependence on star running back Derrick Henry. (It’s no accident that the Titans rusher ranks second in the league with 923 rushing yards (102 yards per game).

However, it’s clear that Tannehill isn’t 100% fit yet, appearing on Tennessee’s injury list this Monday along with 16 other players, including kicker Randy Bullock (calf), who is listed as doubtful. Linebacker Dontrell Long Jr. (neck), defensive end Kevin Strong (ankle) and cornerback Elijah Molden (groin), to name a few, that are listed as probable.

This is the Titans’ third road game in four weeks and it might be starting to take its toll on them. The Packers aren’t without their share of injuries either, listing just as many players this week on their injury list, including Rodgers (thumb) and Aaron Jones (shin). But they’re playing at home and as far as the latest NFL reports are concerned, Rodgers and Jones are expected to start.

The Packers have relied heavily on the run game for most of the first half of the season, but the spark Rodgers and the aerial attack found last Sunday will be key in this matchup against a Titans side that is resilient on the ground and boasts one of the best rushing defenses in the league.

The Titans allow the second-fewest rushing yards (85.1 yards) in the league. On the flip side, they allow the second-most passing yards (272.6 yards). This bodes well for Rodgers and Co. if they can replicate Sunday’s second-half performance.

The Packers’ defense is third-best in the league defending the pass (179.7 yards). Their rushing defense ranks 25th with 140.6 yards allowed. That’s good news for Henry, who’s likely to be doing much of the heavy lifting on Thursday night.

The Packers are averaging 18.5 points conceding 21.6 ppg. The Titans are averaging 18.4 ppg and conceding 18.7 ppg. These figures fall approximately on the median line of the 41-point total. Thus, the probability that this game will fall on either side of this total is relatively equal.

Titans vs Packers Same-Game Parlay Prediction

Taking everything into consideration, our parlay combines the Packers -3 (-110) and the Over 41 (-110), which yields parlay NFL odds of +264 as per the BetUS parlay calculator. We’re backing the Packers to put in a more convincing performance against a worthy Titans side, but one that might run out of gas late in the game.