NFL Week 8 last-minute bets: Best values on props, picks and more

If I'm placing bets on a Sunday, I'm not looking at full-game spreads or totals. Those are efficient markets that have been bet into all week. Instead, I'm looking for the obscure. It's my specialty, anyway: It's what I build statistical models around to try to find an edge.

If there's an advantage to be found now, I think it's in small markets. So come along for the ride and see how we fare diving deep into Sunday props. Results from last week are at the bottom of the story.

QB interceptions

Zach Wilson under 0.5 interceptions (+102)

The Giants are a blitz-heavy man coverage defense under Wink Martindale, and I think that suits Wilson based on some stark splits. Wilson has recorded a 59 QBR vs. man and 18 vs. zone and a 60 QBR vs. the blitz and 30 vs. non-blitz this season. I sometimes think splits like that can be just noise, but the man/zone splits extend back to last season, too. Plus, the Jets are favored -- only the fifth time Wilson has been favored in a game as a starter -- and that means they are less likely to be in desperate passing situations that yield interceptions. I price this at -115.

Pass attempts

Sam Howell under 34.5 pass attempts (-117)

This is a situation where you might feel tempted to take the over no matter what. The Commanders figure to be losing to the Eagles, and if they fall behind, they're going to need Howell to pass. But sometimes the number is just too high, and that's what my model says here, putting Howell at just 30.0 pass attempts on average. Believe it or not, one factor is that he takes so many sacks -- meaning a lower percentage of his dropbacks actually end up as pass attempts.

D/ST anytime touchdowns

Atlanta Falcons D/ST Anytime Touchdown (+800 at Draftkings)

Let's put it this way: My model likes this bet even if it thought Ryan Tannehill was playing in this game. Since it's probably the unproven Will Levis and/or Malik Willis, this is even better. Willis has an incredible 15% sack rate in the NFL and Levis had a 10% sack rate last year at Kentucky.

Cleveland Browns D/ST Anytime Touchdown (+850 at DraftKings)

Sacks

Danielle Hunter under 0.75 sacks (+120 at DraftKings)

Hunter leads the league in sacks with 9.0, but his pass rush win rate is just mediocre (15%, ranks 34th out of 56 at edge) and he's going against a Packers offensive line that ranks second in pass block win rate. And don't sleep on this line being 0.75 instead of 0.25 -- that can make the difference. I make the fair price on the under -122, and you're getting basically that in plus money.

Maliek Collins under 0.25 sacks (-130 at DraftKings)

Collins is playing well this year (he ranks eighth in pass rush win rate at defensive tackle) but this line is overthinking it: he has 0.5 sacks all year. Bryce Young has an 8% sack rate -- higher than average, sure, but he's no Sam Howell or Daniel Jones. I make the price -245.

Tackles + assists

DaRon Bland (DAL) over 3.5 tackles + assists (+108)

Between Trevon Diggs' injury and Bland playing well, the second-year corner's playing time has increased. In Week 6 against the Chargers, he played 100% of snaps for the first time this year. I make Bland's number 4.4, and that's conservative given that the model isn't totally aware of his changing role.

Patrick Queen over 6.5 tackles + assists (-129)

Queen didn't hit this over in Week 7, but if that depressed the line here, we're taking advantage of recency. He has gone over in five of seven games this season. Against run-heavy Arizona, there should be plenty of tackles to go around.

Results

Last week

QB interceptions: 1-1 (+0.0 units)
Pass attempts: 0-1 (-1.0 units)
D/ST touchdowns: 0-1 (-1.0 units)
Sacks: 8-2 (+5.3 units)
Tackles: 5-4 (+0.2 units)
Overall: 14-9 (+3.6 units)

2023 Season

QB interceptions: 6-12 (-4.5 units)
Pass attempts: 2-4 (-2.5 units)
D/ST touchdowns: 2-17 (-1.5 units)
Teasers: 2-2 (+0.4 units)
Defensive interceptions: 0-1 (-1.0 units)
Sacks: 43-32-1 (+5.7 units)
Tackles: 28-18 (+8.4 units)
Weekly specials: 0-3 (-3.0 units)
Game props: 0-2 (-2.0 units)
Overall: 83-91-1 (-0.1 units)