NFL Week 8 picks against spread, over/under to bet on

The big takeaway from Week 7 of the NFL season is that the betting public got killed, including yours truly.

On DraftKings Sportsbook, eight teams that had 70 percent or more of the money/tickets on them all failed to cover, including seven of them losing outright.

Unfortunately, I was on two of those games with the Rams losing as a three-point favorite at home to the Steelers, while the Browns, despite winning a crazy back-and-forth affair, 39-38, over the Colts, did not cover the -3 spread.

Unders also continued to reign supreme last weekend as they were 8-5 in Week 7. Dating back to last season, there have only been three weeks in the NFL where there were more overs than unders for a full game total in a given week, per Evan Abrams of the Action Network.

As we approach closer to the midway point, it's been a tough season for me against the spread. Here's my record heading into Week 8:

2023 record: 15-27-1

Against the spread: 12-23-1

Bonus Bets: 3-4

Here are five teams to wager on against the spread for Week 8, including one total to bet.

NY Jets (-2.5) vs. NY Giants

After a brutal 1-5 start, the Giants are coming off their second win of the season with a 14-7 victory over the Washington Commanders in Week 7.

The Jets had a bye last week after knocking off the previously undefeated Eagles 20-14 in Week 6 at MetLife Stadium.

For the season, the Jets are 4-2 against the spread (ATS) while the G-Men have failed to cover in five of seven contests in 2023.

There's no denying the Giants arguably played their best all-around game of the season versus the Commanders. However, with the Jets well rested and potentially getting back both starting cornerbacks in Ahmad "Sauce" Gardner and D.J. Reed from concussions, lay the less-than-a-field goal spread.

While most sportsbooks have this number at -3, PointsBet (-110) and DraftKings (-115) still have the Jets as a 2.5-point favorite.

Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5) vs. Denver Broncos

This will be the second time in three weeks that these two AFC West rivals square off.

While the Chiefs put up just 19 points in the Week 6 matchup, that's highly unlikely to repeat especially after their 31-17 victory over the Los Angeles Chargers last Sunday.

This has been a lopsided affair with the Chiefs winning 16 straight games, including 12 in a row with QB Patrick Mahomes under center.

Despite being poor against the spread in recent years, Kansas City has been much better this season ATS, covering in five of seven games so far.

With the offense clicking and a dominant defense, the Chiefs cover this more-than-a-touchdown spread in Denver.

For the best available price, lay the -7.5 at -109 on BetRivers.

Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers had one of their best performances of the season last week with a 24-17 win over the Rams.

However, I'm on the Jaguars here.

Jacksonville is coming off a "mini bye" as they played on Thursday Night Football in Week 7.

After back-to-back duds early in the season, the Jaguars offense has scored 23+ points in four straight games, including putting up a combined 68 points in Weeks 6 and 7.

The Jaguars will unquestionably have a more difficult time against a strong Steelers defensive front. However, with QB Trevor Lawrence even healthier after 10 days of rest, I'm backing Jacksonville to cover this small number in what should be a great matchup in the Steel City.

PointsBet currently has the best price for the Jaguars to cover the 2.5-point spread at -110 (Bet $110 to win $100).

Miami Dolphins (-9.5) vs. New England Patriots

There's no denying the Dolphins had their second real test of the season in a 31-17 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday night.

Even though the Patriots are coming off a 29-25 win as eight-point underdogs at home against the Bills, I'm all in on a bounce-back effort from Miami here.

The Dolphins have looked like the best offense in the NFL this season, and in three games at Hard Rock Stadium, they have outscored opponents 143-57 this season.

This is a perfect regression spot for both teams. The Dolphins should have a much better day with positive regression on offense, whereas the Patriots, even with scoring 29 points in Week 7, are still averaging just 14.4 points per game, second-fewest in the NFL and only ahead of the Giants.

Multiple sportsbooks have the price of -110 for the Dolphins to cover this near double-digit spread.

New Orleans Saints (+1.5) vs. Indianapolis Colts

The toughest pick of the weekend is this matchup in Indianapolis.

While the Saints have been uninspiring, especially on offense for a majority of the season, they found life in the second half in the aforementioned matchup versus the Jaguars and nearly overcame a 24-9 third-quarter deficit.

The Colts had their chances against the Browns, but couldn't get it done against backup QB P.J. Walker and Co.

Facing an Indianapolis defense that surrenders the third-highest points per game (27.3 PPG) and the 11th-most yards (351.3 YPG), I have more faith in Saints QB Derek Carr versus this defense than I do for Colts QB Gardner Minshew to have a second straight strong outing against New Orleans.

Bonus Bet: Titans/Falcons Under 37 points (-115)

One of the lowest totals of the weekend is this matchup.

These are two of the best teams to the under this season. Atlanta and Tennessee have combined to hit the under in 11 of 13 games and gone below this number in seven contests.

With the Titans reportedly expecting both QBs Malik Willis and Will Levis to play if starting QB Ryan Tannehill can't play due to an ankle injury, this one is screaming points few and far between, especially with two defenses giving up less than 20 points per game heading into Week 8.

If you're considering betting on the under, do it as soon as possible on FanDuel Sportsbook as it's the only book in New Jersey to still have this number at 37, while all others are at 36.5 points.