NHL Best Bets Edmonton Oilers Montreal Canadiens New Jersey Devils Florida Panthers
Bold common sense is required when betting against a prolonged winning or lossing streak. While bold doesn’t generally modify common sense, for betting purposes it is apt. Teams continue to find creative ways to secure victories or fall in defeat, so betting on change seems daunting.
But the Los Angeles Kings are too good to keep blowing leads and losing. And the Edmonton Oilers and Florida Panthers are both Stanley Cup contenders, but, c’mon, will they both reach an eye-popping ten straight wins? The Oilers already tied the franchise record for consecutive wins on Thursday with their overtime victory. I think Saturday is the day when streaks are snapped.
New Jersey Devils at Florida Panthers
Saturday January 13 – 6:00 PM ET
The catalysts for hockey teams are varied. For some squads, it is special teams excelling or a gutsy shot-block. For others, shot volume gets the team moving toward loose pucks. For the Florida Panthers, it is physicality.
The Panthers pride themselves on finishing their checks on the forecheck and on challenging opponents who dare to carry the puck over their blue line. This mentality, imparted by coach Paul Maurice, adds grit to a team stuffed with skill. It also happens to be working spectacularly, as the Panthers’ current nine-game win streak has vaulted them to within one point of the Boston Bruins for first in the Eastern Conference. But on Saturday, they face a New Jersey Devils team that should not be taken lightly.
The Devils are in a fight for survival, so the stakes are high. They have lost Jack Hughes, Ondrej Palat, Timo Meier, Dougie Hamilton, and Jonas Siegenthaler to injury, and their once vaunted depth has been cut close to the bone. But even with the absence of those significant players, the Devils can play a high-tempo game that opponents struggle to contain.
For example, on Thursday, New Jersey managed to outshoot the Tampa Bay Lightning 25-10 at 5-on-5. It was the Devils’ second most dominant performance at 5-on-5 this season, and they looked dynamic off the rush. They could make the wing-to-wing pass after a controlled entry before funneling the puck toward the players crashing the net. They harnessed the stretch pass and flew the zone. It was Devils hockey, but with less sizzle and a large drop-off when the bottom-six forwards played. New Jersey had the Lightning chasing them around for the bulk of the game.
Perhaps most importantly, the Devils demonstrated they could get the puck below the goal line and hem their opponent in. For New Jersey to win on Saturday, it has to trap Florida in its own end.
The Panthers have a two-headed monster on offence. The line of Aleksander Barkov, Sam Reinhart, and Evan Rodrigues has a preposterous +21 goal differential at 5-on-5 this season. Reinhart is on pace for 60 goals, which is ludicrous. Simultaneously, Matthew Tkachuk has gotten red hot after a very slow start, and Carter Verhaeghe is playing tremendous hockey.
One fascinating element entering this game is how the Devils advance the puck. Will Florida look to take away the home-run pass, especially up the gut, and instead force the Devils to make shorter passes along the perimeter? While those long stretch passes are a potential salve against extended Panthers’ zone time, close passes could have benefits. The Panthers could disrupt the stretch pass in the neutral zone when they step up, weaponizing the maneuver for counterattack chances.
Additionally, if the Devils chip the puck past the Panthers when Florida bears down on the forecheck, and a Devils’ defenceman joins the rush, there is an opportunity to capitalize since Florida will be beneath the puck. This is not the only way New Jersey can pounce on the Panthers on the wrong side of the action. On Thursday, the Los Angeles Kings had spurts where their forecheck created havoc and offensive looks while multiple Panthers forwards were leaving the offensive zone or already in the neutral zone.
During their win streak, Florida goaltenders Sergei Bobrovsky and Anthony Stolarz have delivered strong play. For the Devils, goaltending is where things get dicey. Vitek Vanecek has been worse than Nico Daws, and Vanecek played on Thursday, so at least the less bad option is set to play for New Jersey on Saturday.
I think the Devils are going to beat the Panthers and end the streak. But in case they lose in overtime, I’ll take the underdog (+1.5) puck line and win the bet.
Pick: Devils Puck line (+1.5) -154
Los Angeles King at Detroit Red Wings
Saturday January 13 – 7:00 PM ET
On paper, the Los Angeles Kings have the ingredients of a winner. Their analytics are superb. They have depth down the middle. They receive scoring throughout their lineup to such a striking degree that they went 34 games this season without having to make an adjustment to their top-four forward lines. Starting goaltender Cam Talbot ranks in the top four in Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx), grossly exceeding high expectations. Even long-term issues like the development of former No. 2 overall pick Quinton Byfield are wrapped in positivity. Unfortunately, the team can’t stop losing.
The Kings have lost seven in a row, and in five of those they had a lead. You’ll often hear the audible groan of opposing broadcasters lamenting the Kings’ steely 1-3-1 defence and how they stack the neutral zone with a lead. And yet, the team built to salt away time with its stingy checking keeps surrendering games.
Searching around the coal mine, the canary is easily recognizable. The numbers reflect a huge drop off. Before the losing streak, the Kings ranked first in expected goals and second in high-danger chances. During the losing streak, their expected goals and high-danger chances have ranked in the bottom half of the league. Casting about for reasons for the dip in play, a taxing schedule seems like a realistic culprit.
The issue for Detroit is whether its offense can outscore its leaky defence. Goaltender Alex Lyon has given the Red Wings a temporary boost in the six games he has played since 12/29, but I’m dubious Lyon is the silver bullet for the team’s defence. Especially against a Kings team that has a diversified attack.
Arguably no team in the NHL loves picks and interference more than the Kings. They use both on the rush and cycle. They use them to give the defenceman retrieving the puck an extra second. On the rush, they have truly mastered the drop-pass-and-pick play to create space, and the time afforded to the recipient of the drop pass helps ensure that the correct read is made. The pick on the cycle is generally a setup for a backdoor play to the weak side and for L.A. players crashing the net. The Kings specialize in drawing an opponent out to battle them in the corners and then bringing the fight to that team’s doorstep (at the crease).
To win again against Los Angeles, I think Detroit will need to keep the puck deep and in the corners. Against the Kings on Thursday night, the Panthers were successful creating chances from behind the goal line. They jammed the puck into the crease and forced the puck into the slot.
While Detroit will look to shoot into high-traffic areas and has been posting goals off its screens of late, the Kings’ man-on-man defence generally excels because this team tracks, boxes out, and checks so well. The Red Wings have the personnel to strike off the rush, and that inherent speed and skill can lead to a controlled entry and extended offensive-zone time. But beating the Kings also demands sound puck management, and Detroit certainly has a few players who will try to force the puck into a risky area, which could springboard a Kings’ counterattack.
The Kings had been gangbusters on the road until recently and commanding in the analytics until recently. I think the larger sample size is more revealing and their recent slump is the caprice of a long NHL season. Give me the Kings’ moneyline!
Pick: Kings Moneyline -162
Edmonton Oilers at Montreal Canadiens
Saturday January 13 – 7:00 PM ET
The Montreal Canadiens can keep Saturday’s contest competitive if they make it boring. The Canadiens don’t possess the skill to disorient Edmonton’s defence, and they are at a disadvantage in terms of talent and speed. But if they can execute a low-event game, they greatly improve their chances. In other words, maintain territorial advantage and force the Oilers to earn their ice. With how well Montreal’s goaltenders have played, this is a formula for a one-score game.
Against Edmonton, there are definitely some clear no-no’s. First, make the safe play when Connor McDavid is on the ice. He could skate through five Canadiens, so prevent him from going one-on-one if possible.
Likewise, don’t feed the rush when Leon Draisaitl is on the ice. Even when not playing with McDavid, he is a threat to set up for that cross-seam one-timer or make a spectacular pass of his own. Try to stay in front of him if possible – or better yet, force him to play defence.
The quickest way to get routed is to give Edmonton a bunch of power-play opportunities. The Oilers aren’t quite as fearsome from a percentage standpoint as they were last season, but their pet plays (Draisaitl one-timer, McDavid short-side roof shot, Hyman crease play) should have Montreal extra-focused on avoiding playing a man down. Montreal is top ten in the NHL in penalties taken per 60 minutes. Against the Oilers, exercising discipline will be critical.
While losing to the San Jose Sharks on Thursday (snapping the Fins’ 12-game losing streak) seems like a season nadir, the Canadiens have been consistently competitive at the midpoint. In 41 games, they have lost by two or more goals only 12 times. Perhaps unfair given the transformational coaching change, but the much-hyped Oilers have also lost by two or more goals 12 times!
The Canadiens are a tough road team, too. Since December 18, they have beaten the Winnipeg Jets and Dallas Stars, and lost to Tampa Bay 4-3.
The Canadiens biggest strength might be in their comfort playing vanilla hockey. They want to drive the puck north. They like the low-to-high play. They will get bodies to the net for deflections. The Canadiens try to spread opponents out and utilize the slot. Their defencemen activate. Nothing they will throw at Edmonton will be especially jarring, but if they can keep the Oilers in a defensive posture, the rest doesn’t need to be world-shaking.
The Canadiens’ breakout and defensive coverage suffered bad lapses on Wednesday and Thursday. But the last four times they lost consecutive games this season, the Canadiens have either won or lost the next game by one goal.
Edmonton can make franchise history if it wins against Montreal on Saturday. Looking at the analytics, the Oilers should smoke the Canadiens. But I think the Canadiens may play the spoiler. And if Edmonton comes out victorious, I think it will be in overtime, so I love the Canadiens’ (+1.5) puck line.
Pick: Canadiens Puck line (+1.5) -122
