NHL: Colorado Avalanche vs. Seattle Kraken odds & prediction
The Colorado Avalanche are stuck in the mud.
After getting off to an 6-0-0 start, the Avs have lost five of their last seven and have been shutout three times in that span. The Avalanche’s +16 goal difference after their first six games has evaporated thanks to a pair of lopsided losses, including an 8-2 defeat to the St. Louis Blues on Saturday night.
Colorado will look to get back on track as a -148 road favorite against the Seattle Kraken on Monday night.
The results have been funky for the Avs lately, but the process generally looks good. Colorado ranks third in the NHL in expected goals rate, high-danger scoring chance percentage and shot attempt rate. That’s usually the mark of a good team, but the problem is that Colorado is struggling to get a save right now. They’re not finishing chances at a high clip, either, but the goaltending is the main concern for this team.
Through his first five games of 2023-24, Alexandar Georgiev was terrific. The Bulgarian-born netminder posted a .927 save percentage and a +5.11 Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) in that span and was one of the very early risers in the Vezina Trophy conversation. But things have taken a turn for the worse since then for Georgiev.
In his last four starts, Georgiev boasts an .836 save percentage and a -10.1 GSAx. That’s quite poor, but it’s also hard to imagine that Georgiev doesn’t shake out of this funk. The team is doing a great job limiting chances in front of him, so eventually he’ll find his groove and reward the Avs for their strong play.
The Kraken have also been held back by some poor goaltending, but the difference is that they’re struggling to drive play at 5-on-5. Seattle is a deep team that relies on every line pulling its weight, but right now things look a bit off compared to what we saw from this roster last season.
Only three Kraken have registered 10+ points and top players like Matty Beniers and Jared McCann have struggled to get going.
Laying a pretty hefty price with a road team that’s been struggling to get results may not seem appealing, but the Avs have been doing almost everything right and may be getting a bit underrated by the betting market thanks to some unsustainably poor goaltending from Georgiev. Eventually, I expect the Avs to course-correct when they start to get some stronger netminding.
Colorado Avalanche -148 (DraftKings)
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