NHL Draft Lottery: How does the NHL Draft Lottery work? Exploring the odds of which team gets the first overall pick

The NHL draft is an annual event in which teams select the rights to young ice hockey players who have reached a certain age or skill level. The NHL draft order is determined by a lottery system, in which the odds of winning the first overall pick are based on a team's regular season performance.

Each team has a chance to win the lottery, but the odds of winning are not equal. The team with the worst regular-season record has the best odds of winning the lottery, while the team with the best record has the worst odds.

The NHL uses a weighted lottery system to determine the draft order. The team with the worst record has the best odds of winning the lottery, with a 25.5% chance of winning the first overall pick. The odds of winning decreases for each subsequent team, with the team with the 11th worst record having just a 3% chance of winning the first overall pick.

How the NHL Draft first overall odds look currently

Arizona Coyotes - 7.5%

Philadelphia Flyers - 6.5 %

Detroit Red Wings - 6.0 %

St. Louis Blues - 5.0 %

Vancouver Canucks - 4.0 %

Washington Capitals - 3.0%

The NHL draft lottery works as follows: first, the lottery is used to determine the first overall pick.

The team that wins the lottery moves up to the first overall pick, and the remaining teams move down one spot in the draft order. The process is repeated for the second overall pick, and so on, until all 15 picks in the draft lottery have been determined.

If a team wins the lottery and moves up in the draft order, they're not allowed to move down more than one spot. For example, if the team with the fourth-best odds wins the lottery and moves up to the first overall pick, the team with the best odds can move down to no lower than the second overall pick.

The draft lottery was introduced in 1995 in response to allegations that teams were tanking or intentionally losing games to secure a higher draft pick. The NHL wanted to disincentivize tanking by giving all teams a chance to win the lottery but still giving the worst teams the best odds of winning.

The draft lottery has undergone several changes since it was first introduced. Originally, only the first overall pick was determined by the lottery, with the remaining picks being awarded in reverse order of regular season standings. In 2013, the NHL expanded the lottery to include the first three picks, and in 2016, the lottery was further expanded to include the top 15 picks.

Several factors can affect a team's draft position, including trades and conditional picks. For example, if a team trades away their first-round pick but includes a condition that they will receive a first-round pick if they do not make the playoffs, the NHL will use the same lottery odds to determine which team receives that conditional pick.

The draft lottery is a weighted system that gives the worst teams the best odds of winning the first overall pick but still gives all teams a chance to win. The lottery system was introduced to disincentivize tanking and give all teams a fair shot at improving their roster through the draft. The lottery system has undergone several changes since it was first introduced, but the basic principles remain the same.