NHL: Philadelphia Flyers vs Columbus Blue Jackets odds, pick, prediction
The Philadelphia Flyers open their 2023-24 season on Thursday night in a winnable game against the Columbus Blue Jackets. Although they are underdogs in Ohio, the betting line tells us that bookmakers see very little that separates the Jackets and Flyers. Columbus is a slight -130 favorite at home, while the Over/Under currently sits at 6.5.
What should bettors expect from this Metro Division showdown?
Flyers vs. Blue Jackets prediction: Analysis
Neither the Flyers nor the Blue Jackets come into the 2023-24 season with high expectations. Columbus is a little further along than Philadelphia in terms of talent and depth, but the Jackets are still a flawed group that will need a lot to break their way if they’re going to contend for a playoff spot.
The Blue Jackets wasted little time in the offseason trying to improve their blueline and did so by acquiring Damon Severson from the Devils and Ivan Provorov from the Flyers. Severson and Provorov are both steady blueliners, but neither is a top-pair player and that’s an issue because this is a defense that is calling out for one.
Some improvement is expected with Provorov and Severson, but it won’t be enough to steady a team that finished 31st in goals allowed, expected goals against and 30th in high-danger scoring chances conceded in 2022-23.
That kind of defensive environment will wreak havoc on any goaltender, but Columbus will also need to see improvement from goaltender Elvis Merzlikins this season if they’re going to make any noise. Merzlikins posted an .878 save percentage and -26.7 Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) in 30 outings in 2022-23.
The silver lining for the Jackets is that they should have enough firepower offensively to cover up for some of their defensive transgressions. Johnny Gaudreau and Patrik Laine should have bounce-back seasons, while youngsters Adam Fantilli, Kent Johnson, Cole Sillinger and Kirill Marchenko should all provide some scoring support for Columbus’ two offensive stars.
The Flyers were a better defensive unit than the Blue Jackets last season, but it’s hard to see them being anything better than below-average once again in 2023-24. Philadelphia’s blueline, which is headlined by a very pedestrian top-pairing of Travis Sanheim and Cam York, figures to be among the worst in the league, though John Tortorella’s ability to get his team to play with sound structure perhaps raises their floor just a bit.
With two leaky defenses going at it, I’ll take a shot on the Over 6.5 on Thursday night.
Flyers vs. Blue Jackets prediction: Pick
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