NHL Season 106: The 10 Spot
The 2022-23 season concluded with a week-long stay in Nashville for the NHL Awards and Draft – and some may still be recovering from it – after which some players retreated to the off-season to heal (and some are still healing), others to contemplate the next move in their career via free agency, and still more deciding to commence their life after professional hockey.
With the new season on the horizon, I’ve picked 10 intriguing storylines as we sit one month from Opening Night on October 10:
1. Doubling down in The Desert?
Vegas will attempt to be the third team in the last eight seasons to win back-to-back Stanley Cups (Pittsburgh 2016/17, Tampa Bay 2020/21). They are running it back with essentially the same team that went 16-6 on the way to the title. The only significant change to the roster was Original Golden Misfit Reilly Smith’s departure via trade in favor of Ivan Barbashev, who provided the expected impact when he was acquired at the trade deadline from St. Louis for prospect Zach Dean. As for their chances for a repeat, with the salary cap not increasing significantly, a mediocre free agency frenzy and a soft trade market, none of the top contenders made big enough moves to deter George McPhee and Kelly McCrimmon from thinking that if they can stay healthy, they can raise the Cup again.
2. Does Willie get $10 million?
The Toronto Maple Leafs got Job 1 done and eliminated a potential huge in-season distraction in the process by getting the Auston Matthews deal done in August, resetting the bar for the highest AAV in the NHL ($13.25 million). The Matthews camp would have preferred to sign after an extension for high-scoring winger William Nylander was done, but with negotiations going nowhere on that front, Matthews followed through on his wish to stay in Toronto. Nylander’s first 40-goal season and a career high 87 points backed with 10 points in 11 playoff games has pushed his ask into the $10 million per year range, a number that makes it difficult for new GM Brad Treliving to navigate in the 2024-25 season with both Mitchell Marner and John Tavares cap hits north of $10M. Will the Leafs be the first team to have four players with an eight-figure salary cap hit? If he’s not signed in-season, a repeat of last season’s numbers will guarantee an eight-figure salary... likely for another franchise.
3. Erik the Conqueror?
Give the San Jose Sharks and Erik Karlsson credit, throughout the ordeal of the Norris Trophy winner’s request of a trade to a Stanley Cup contender – San Jose is the arguably the furthest of the 32 teams from a championship – things never got ugly. General Manager Mike Grier worked diligently to grant Karlsson’s request while Erik never spoke negatively about the organization – his understanding of the cap hit, and term left on his contract, would not make it an easy transaction and patience was needed. The return received from the Pittsburgh Penguins for a 100-point defenseman makes the deal look more like one that gets Grier out from under an $11.5 million cap hit for a 33-year-old defenseman than one that makes the team stronger (three over-30, middle of the lineup players and a conditional first-round pick). As for Karlsson’s goal of winning a Cup, while he greatly improves his chances by leaving the non-contending Sharks, does his insertion into the Penguins lineup elevate them to championship quality? Even with Karlsson’s offensive prowess (needed from Opening Night as Jake Guentzel is shelved with injury to start the season), Pittsburgh hasn’t won a playoff round since 2018. The final sour note of last season, the failure in last season’s Game 81 against Chicago that bounced them out of the playoffs and set the stage for the Florida Panthers Cinderella Cup run makes them look more like a wildcard contender than championship one.
4. The second coming of Connor
With the two cornerstones of the Chicago Blackhawks departed (Patrick Kane via trade and still unsigned, Jonathan Toews dealing/healing from health issues), the torch will be formally passed to first-overall pick Connor Bedard on Oct. 10 in Pittsburgh. Even with the addition of veteran help – Taylor Hall, Corey Perry, Nick Foligno and Ryan Donato – it’s still a steep climb to get back to contender status. The oddsmakers don’t think there will be much of a Bedard effect in season one – futures on Chicago’s season point total moved to 71 from last season’s 66 – and it will be interesting to see what Bedard registers offensively in his rookie season. Will he be a 30G, 30A player out of the gate or should expectations be along the lines of what former first-overalls Jack Hughes and Alexis Lafreniere delivered?
5. The other Connor (I kid, I kid)
So, what does Connor McDavid do for an encore? 70 goals? 100 assists? McDavid ended the Hart Trophy conversation early last season and should have been named a unanimous winner of the Hart if not for one foolish voter. It’s hard to fathom how he can eclipse a 153-point season but if there is one player with the ability to do it, it’s him. But another Hart, another Art Ross isn’t McDavid’s goal – he’s never been about the points, though they will help when it’s his turn to eclipse Matthews in AAV. Entering his ninth NHL season, his dogged pursuit of the only achievement that has eluded him, a Stanley Cup win, is his sole motivation. The Oilers regressed last post season, getting eliminated in Round 2 by the ultimate champion Golden Knights, and with the only significant addition in the off-season being a third Connor – Brown, his running mate from their OHL Erie Otters days – the Oilers are one of the short money favorites to win it all. The question is whether the ninth time will be the charm for McDavid in Edmonton.
6. How far Back (Bay) will the B’s go?
The playoff run of the NHL’s greatest regular-season team lasted seven games. Up 3-1 in the first round against the Florida Panthers, the Boston Bruins found ways to lose three straight games, including two at TD Garden where they had fashioned a 34-4-3 regular-season record. Even if Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci decided to return for the 2023-24 season, there was going to be regression from the incredible 65-win, 135-point campaign. With the two aforementioned centers off to retirement and the decision to fill those spots internally with Pavel Zacha and Charlie Coyle, how far will the Bruins regress? The defense still looks solid, the goaltending is in good hands with Linus Ullmark and Jeremy Swayman, and David Pastrnak is a Hart Trophy caliber talent, but in a highly competitive Atlantic Division, it’s not a stretch to think the Bruins may fall to a wildcard slot.
7. J-E-T-S. JETS! JETS! JETS!
This isn’t about the Winnipeg Jets, though they are intriguing given the departures of Blake Wheeler and Pierre-Luc Dubois and possibly more with a willingness to listen on pending unrestricted free agents Mark Schiefele and Connor Hellebuyck. The well-known NFL New York Jets chant is a reference point to the football Jets and the Buffalo Sabres sharing the longest current playoff drought – 12 seasons – in the four major North American professional sports. The Jets stand a good chance of snapping their skid with the addition of Aaron Rodgers and with the Sabres just missing the post-season by a point last season, it would be no surprise if the maturing, talented roster lined up for a Game 83 in April. Scoring goals will not be an issue – Buffalo possesses a dangerous top line in Tage Thompson, Jeff Skinner and Alex Tuch, two first-overall picks on the blueline (Rasmus Dahlin had a fantastic career season, Owen Power had a steady if unspectacular rookie season) and if they can make inroads on the 300 goals against (seventh worst last season), they may challenge for a top three position in the Atlantic Division. Better overall team defense is imperative to make the playoffs (Buffalo was a similar seventh worst in shots against) but the playoff hopes may rest on the shoulders of 21-year-old goaltender Devon Levi, whose seven-game cameo last season sets the stage to be the No.1 netminder ahead of returning Eric Comrie and Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen.
8. How close, Ovi?
The Washington Capitals’ Alexander Ovechkin is 72 goals away from eclipsing a record once thought impossible to shatter – Wayne Gretzky’s 892 goal mark. The question no longer is “if” but “when” he will celebrate 893. Ovechkin registered 42 goals in 72 games played last season but injuries and age throughout rest of the Washington roster saw the Capitals regress 20 standings points (35-37-10, 80 points) – their lowest full-season total since the 2006-07 season – and miss the playoffs for the first time since 2013-14 season. The oddsmakers believe the Caps will be on the outside looking in again in the Spring so the 99 Chase may be the feature Caps story this season. What is attainable this season for the Great 8 – 12 game-winning goals will see him pass Jaromir Jagr with 136.
9. The Kings of New York
Acknowledging that the Buffalo Sabres play in the Empire State as well, the title “Kings of New York” will refer to the New York metro area teams. After years of waiting for the young talent to develop in New Jersey, the Devils made their second post-season appearance in the last 10 seasons with an eye-popping 49 standings points improvement. Their success extended into the playoffs by rallying from a 2-0 series deficit against the arch-rival Rangers in the opening round of last season’s first-round matchup to win in seven games. That series win puts them at the top of the Big Apple heap. By adding another 30-goal scorer in Tyler Toffoli from Calgary and extending two top-six wingers in Jesper Bratt and Timo Meier, the expectations in Newark are a deeper playoff run than last season’s second-round elimination by the Carolina Hurricanes. The Rangers first-round exit cost Gerard Gallant his bench boss role and the addition of Blake Wheeler on a minimum one-year contract is a value add, but their prospects lie with the performance of their two kid forwards, Lafreniere and Kaapo Kakko. Forty-point regular-seasons and no-impact post seasons aren’t enough for the young pair. The disappointment playoff loss masked the fact that the Blueshirts finished just five points behind the Devils, so there’s not much to separate the teams. The Islanders have an aged roster (likely nine roster players over 30 on Opening Night) in support of Iyla Sorokin and made the post season by virtue of being a top-five defensive team. If they plan to improve on their first-round elimination they will need far better from Bo Horvat and Mat Barzal, both signed until 2031, to return to the post-season and close the gap on their in-market rivals.
10. QB1>QB3
Here in Los Angeles, my refrain of “play the kids” of three seasons ago is now ancient history. The Kings have made consecutive playoff appearances and the acquisition of Pierre-Luc Dubois puts them in “win-now” mode. The Dubois deal makes them formidable at the center position with captain Anze Kopitar showing no signs of age and signing on for two additional seasons over the summer. With Phillip Danault a fixture in the middle on a line with Trevor Moore and Viktor Arvidsson, goal scoring may improve over their top-10 offensive showing (tied with Colorado) of last season. Dubois’ presence will keep Quinton Byfield at left wing to start the season in what is a pivotal season for the former second-overall pick. Byfield’s overall play improved as last season lengthened, but if the Kings plan on winning their first division title in franchise history and start winning playoff rounds (they haven’t won a playoff series since Alec Martinez threw his jazz hands in the air in 2014), Byfield must improve on his three goals in 53 games output from last season. With Kevin Fiala delivering as expected after his acquisition last summer and Adrian Kempe’s emergence as a dangerous goal-scorer and team leader, it’s not necessary for Byfield to post a 30G, 30A season for the Kings to make noise this season, but a 15-20 goal campaign is necessary to stay on the Los Angeles top line.
The fun begins for me prior to October 10 as I’ll be covering the Global Series between the Kings and Arizona Coyotes in Melbourne. Australia in a couple of weeks, witnessing the first NHL games to be played in the Southern Hemisphere.
Back in North America, Kings Of The Podcast Season 5 has commenced with guest Kings Assistant General Manager Nelson Emerson and I’ll be returning to SiriusXM NHL Network Radio to host The Hot Stove with Dave Pagnotta and Ryan Paton – first show on October 7 – and will be a contributor/co-host for The Power Play with Steve Kouleas for what should be a fun, entertaining and competitive NHL season.
