NHL Totals Betting Advice: Hot and Cold Over and Under Teams 11/16/2023
We are just under 20 games into the season, and already there have been some major shakeups compared to offseason thinking. Edmonton was the first to fire their coach… who would’ve thought? But the Oilers are 2-0 under their new leader. The Canucks have three guys tied for the team lead in points with 26, and yes that also leads the league. Vancouver is now tied with the reigning Vegas Golden Knights atop the Pacific Division thanks to their three-headed offensive monster and their dominating netminder.
As exciting as it has been to start the season, we need to make sure our pockets can extend our excitement so let us take a look at some new trends that have shown up through the first quarter of the season. Last week we took a look at the Hot and Cold moneyline and puckline teams, this week it is time to see who has been on either side of the game totals.
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Over
New Jersey Devils- OVER % - 78.6%
The Over in New Jersey games has hit in 11 of their first 14 contests this season, and this has happened in large part to their poor goaltending. Neither Vitek Vanecek nor Akira Schmid can find their stride from last season. Each netminder is allowing a whole goal or more per game, compared to a year ago, thus far. Their 3.86 GA/G ranks 30th in the league and their .887 SV% ranks 29th. On the flip side, the Devils are in the top eight in the league in GF/G with 3.64. Additionally, they lead the league in PP%, cashing in on 38.6% of their man advantage chances. The games in which New Jersey has taken part in hold a game total average of over seven goals per game. Another notable thing to pay attention to is only one New Jersey game this season totaled with less than six goals in the game. There were only five goals scored in the Devils contest with the Blues earlier this year. This Over has been a great play so far, and two of their next three games showcase teams that rank in the top eight in GF/G (Pittsburgh and Detroit), so the trend will likely continue over the next week.
Minnesota Wild- O% - 66.7%
The Minnesota Wild are tied with the Detroit Red Wings and Arizona Coyotes for the second highest Over % in the league. The Over has hit in 10 of their first 15 games so far. For the Wild, the high mark in this category is not correlated with a good offense, but with awful goaltending. In fact, their offense is widely mediocre, averaging 3.27 GF/G which is tied 16th in the NHL, and their special team’s performance has been awful this season; On the Power Play, they have been subpar with a PP% of just 17.5% and their penalty kill is the worst in the NHL, as the Wild erase only 63.5% of the opponent’s man advantage. As stated though, the biggest factor in the high Over % is their awful netminding. They are allowing 4.20 GA/G, which ranks 31st in the league, and their .875 SV% is the worst mark in the NHL. The Wild have allowed six or more goals in a game four times already. Filip Gustavsson has been a prime demonstration on just how fleeting a goalie’s success can be in this game. He played himself into a big pay day last season, allowing 2.10 GA/G in his 39 appearances, but he has allowed 4.64 GA/G this campaign. The Wild will allow a lot of goals. And if they rack up enough penalty minutes, the over will surely hit for the game total and likely the opponents goal total as well. Not a great trend to follow if you are a Minnesota fan.
Detroit Red Wings- O% - 66.7%
Detroit has been an early surprise this season as they find themselves third in the Atlantic, ahead of Toronto and Tampa Bay. Their success with the Over is thanks to their offense. They are averaging 3.67 GF/G, which is tied for the third best in the NHL. Adding Akex DeBrincat has paid dividends already as he and Dylan Larkin have formed a nice duo as they lead the team in points, with Larkin leading in assists and DeBrincat leading in goals. However, this is a very deep team with production spread out up and down the roster. G Ville Husso has not been great in his first 10 contests, as he is allowing 3.61 GA/G, but that stat only helps us get closer to that Over mark. I am not as confident in this trend continuing, like I am for New Jersey and Minnesota, but nonetheless they are tied for the second-best Overs mark thus far. If Husso is in the net, I am taking the over.
Arizona Coyotes- O% - 66.7%
Similarly, to the Red Wings, I am not super confident that this trend will continue, either. The fact, they have reached this high of a mark on the Over % is weird to me. They are mediocre on offense, ranking 13th in GF/G with 3.33, while their goaltending also ranks 13th in GA/G, as they allow 3.07. The only noticeable and weighted factor is their success on the Power Play. They have cashed in on 29.8% of their Power Play chances, which ranks 5th in the league. They also scored 40.4% of their goals so far this season, in just three games (8 against Chicago, 7 against Nashville, and 6 against St. Louis). They get mentioned, but I am also on the side that the Over % will regress big time by the next game total article.
Under
Washington Capitals- UNDER % - 78.6%
Now for the Under. Washington leads the league in Under % as the game total has fallen below the mark 11 times in their first 14 games. Washington has recorded just one game in which they have scored more than four goals. In fact, for the probable few college football readers of this article, the Washington Capitals are the Iowa Hawkeyes of hockey. It makes no sense how they win with no offense. The Caps rank 31st in the NHL in GF/G as they tally a mere 2.36 a game. Unlike the Hawkeyes, the special teams aren’t their saving grace. Washington is dead last in PP% with an abysmal 7.3% mark. They have tallied just three goals on the Power Play this season. Alex Ovechkin is the only player to record double digit points through the team’s first 14 contests. On the flip side, the netminding has been solid. Showcasing three different goalies so far, the Caps are allowing just 2.64 GA/G, which is tied for 7th best in the league. With no offense, no star, and great goaltending, the numbers give us every reason to take the under.
San Jose Sharks- U% - 68.8%
Surprise, surprise. The Sharks find themselves with one of the highest Under totals in the league. As mentioned above, the Caps rank 31st in GF/G. Do you know who ranks 32nd? You guessed it! The San Jose Sharks are averaging a whole goal less than the Caps. San Jose has averaged just 1.31 GF/G this season. It’s easy for the Under to hit when you have scored just 21 goals in your first 16 contests. It is worth noting they have the worst netminding in the league as well as they are allowing just under 4.5 GA/G, but the offense is that bad to where the Under is still a great play. To further back the Under, if you take away the two games in which San Jose allowed 10 goals (vs. VAN and PIT), they are allowing just 3.71 GA/G, which is still awful, but would also show you that the game totals have been sitting closer to five than six goals, making the Under a great play.
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