Nick Luck's William Hill blog: A Big Welsh National fancy

Kempton

SAMUEL SPADE could offer some significant reward in the opening juvenile on the second day of Kempton’s TV Christmas bonanza (12.45pm) at 14/1. There are arguably more credentialed ex-Flat racers in here plus a few from big stables sure to make the market. But the selection was pretty unexposed on the level, and was probably the quickest of these. This pacy track should be right up his street, and yet he saw out a strongly run 10 furlongs well enough to think he won’t be a short runner over hurdles. He was bought by a very good outfit, and his sire has had some surprisingly good results with jumpers.

GLORY AND FORTUNE comes with significant attendant risks, but they’re well built into his price, and I’m willing to take a chance at 7/1 (1.20pm). In short, he is probably the fastest and most talented horse in this field and, although he has had his jumping issues over fences, he was a fair bit better for 7/8ths of the race at Cheltenham. He is in really good hands to make progress in that department, and I’m not giving up on him as a chaser just yet.

WHITEHOTCHILLIFILI looks real each-way value at 7/1 in the mares’ race (1.55pm). She’s had a pretty productive career but has only once raced at this sort of trip: in the Warfield Hurdle at Ascot last year when running a near career best behind Molly Olly’s Wishes. Her comeback behind a fit and in-form Coquelicot (second fav) was more than respectable, and she is now 5lbs better off. She is more than capable off this mark, and can run another bold race at big odds.

EDWARDSTONE should follow up his sparkling comeback in the Desert Orchid (2.30pm) at 1/2. While I have great regard for Nube Negra at this track in particular, the market leader should have the race run perfectly to suit.

BELARGUS (25/1) is another slightly wild one in the three mile handicap (3.09pm). The bare facts are that he’s been kicking his heels a bit for a year or so, but he’s not had a lot of a racing in that time and is now down to his last winning mark. His comeback at Ascot was fine, but a fair bit better can be expected for run, and on softer ground. The jumping isn’t great, but Niall Houlihan knows him well and gets a tune out of him.

Chepstow

RED ROOKIE can take the first of the TV races from Chepstow (1.05pm) at 11/2. There’s not a chance we’ve got to the bottom of this classy horse, who improved stealthily through last season. Although he fizzled out late, the way he travelled through the Arkle strongly suggested that he was better than a 140-horse. A slight step up in trip on unseasonably good ground by Chepstow standards could easily squeeze out some more progress.

SPARTAN ARMY looks to have been slightly overlooked in the Finale at Chepstow (1.40pm) at 6/1. Although Comfort Zone probably boasts the best hurdles form in their light careers to date, the selection achieved as much as any of these on the Flat in just a couple of runs. In superb hands for a juvenile hurdling career, he could do no more than win the Wensleydale, which he did with quite a sharp turn of foot from a mistake at the last. He looks the overpriced one here by some way.

GREEN BOOK can make a winning return in the handicap hurdle (2.10pm) at 11/4. A really likeable stayer who falls just shy of really high class, he nonetheless ran very well in the Albert Bartlett and has been given an assignment that should be well within his comfort zone. It is most encouraging that he can run well fresh.

THE BIG BREAKAWAY could be the answer to the Welsh National (2.50pm) at 9/1. His reputation has always somewhat exceeded his achievement, but he was raw as a youngster and possibly too much was expected too soon. What the Haydock run seemed to show was that there was strong chance he could reincarnate as a marathon chaser – and, if that is the case, we know he has a good bit more quality than most of these, and that the steadier rhythm will be more forgiving of his occasional slovenly jumps. He looks to have had the perfect prep for this, and might just have a class edge on fairly good ground.