Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal Prediction

Covers

20 May 2023

Arsenal may have run out of time to catch up to City but they still won't want to fall behind any further. With Nottingham also staving off relegation, our EPL betting picks are expecting both offenses to wake up with a bang.

Saturday’s Premier League action will close when Nottingham Forest and Arsenal duke it out at The City Ground. To most Arsenal fans the season is over, with the chances of them overturning Man City’s lead very slim. However, the same can’t be said for the hosts, Nottingham Forest.,

Starting the weekend just three points clear of relegation it’s essential that Nottingham Forest continue to fight to get points on the board in case of a late surge from either Leicester or Leeds. With each side having something to fight for, I expect to see both teams find the back of the net. Find out more in my EPL betting picks for Nottingham Forest vs. Arsenal.

Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal best odds

Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal picks and predictions

My best bet for Saturday’s game comes is Over 2.5 goals and both teams to score. We’ll get into the numbers that back up the reasoning in a minute, but first let's look at the psyche of each team, which I believe only underlines why this wager should be a winner.

We know what Forest are playing for — Premier League survival. They’ll try and keep things tight, but if they go a goal down they’ll throw caution to the wind because they simply have to get points. Then you have Arsenal. They have the most interesting proposition because it’s hard to tell how they’ll react.

There is a faint hope that City could have a historic bottling of the title but it won’t happen. That should allow them to play without pressure. That's why I could see this being a very high-scoring game.

A look at both team's recent games shows you that there’s a real chance of this. There have been Over 2.5 goals scored in Nottingham Forest’s last five Premier League games.

We’ve seen Forest score in each of those five games, and their scoring has generally improved lately, with 12 of their 36 Premier League goals coming in those previous five games. That should put Arsenal on notice given that they’ll still be without William Saliba in their backline, as well as Oleksandr Zinchenko and Takehiro Tomiyasu.

Nottingham Forest also conceded at least two goals in seven of their last eight Premier League games, another fact that should give us confidence that the Gunners will score. Not that Arsenal needs an invitation to score. This is a team who have outscored everyone in the league besides Man City this season — finding the net 82 times in their 36 games.

There have been Over 2.5 goals in 11 of Arsenal’s last 12 games in the Premier League and their opposition have scored in eight of their past nine in the league too.

All in all this bet makes sense. They are teams who are both conceding lots of goals currently and both have the ability to score. However you look at it, this feels like a value bet.

My best bet: Over 2.5 goals and both teams to score (-105 at bet365)

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Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal side analysis

It’s always hard to predict Steve Cooper’s team given that Nottingham Forest have such a huge squad. I think we’ll see Forest line up in a 4-3-3, with Keylor Navas protected by a back four featuring Felipe and Moussa Niakhate at its heart. The midfield should see Ryan Yates, Orel Mangala, and Danilo in a three, with the 22-year-old Brazilian a solid performer this season.

Nottingham Forest’s real star is Morgan Gibbs-White and the Englishman will support Taiwo Awoniyi and Brennan Johnson in the attack. Gibbs-White has performed well this year and is probably in contention for an international call up, having scored five and assisted seven in a poor Nottingham Forest team this season.

Arsenal’s team is a little more well known at this point. With their defensive injuries, we’re certain to see a back four of Kieran Tierney, Gabriel, Jakub Kiwior, and Ben White.

The midfield will see Granit Xhaka play what could be one of his final games in an Arsenal shirt if transfer rumors are to be believed. Alongside him will be Jorginho who has had the nod over Thomas Partey lately and Martin Odegaard, who’ll be joining the attack wherever possible.

Gabriel Jesus and Bukayo Saka are surefire starters when they’re fit and Leandro Trossard has been impressive since joining from Brighton in January. Arsenal should win this but at -177 I’m not going to be backing it. They know their season is effectively over and if their hearts aren’t in it then I can’t bring myself to bet on them. There are other better ways to play this game.

Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal Over/Under analysis

Given that our best bet for Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal is Over 2.5 goals and BTTS, it won’t be a surprise to know I’m going for Over 2.5 goals in the total goals market.

The stats back it up too. The Over has landed in just 47.2% of Forest’s Premier League games but it’s hit in four of their past six in the Premier League at the City Ground. Arsenal love at Over 2.5 goals and it’s hit in four of their last five on the road.

The BTTS market is also a yes from me. Both teams have found the net in 61.1% of Forest's home games this season, including seven of the last eight at home. Both teams have also scored in 58.3% of Arsenal’s Premier League games this season, so the stats are on our side there too.

Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal game info

Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal key injuries

Nottingham Forest: Neco Williams RB (Out), Giulian Biancone CB (Out), Chris Wood STR (Out), Omar Richards LB (Out), Dean Henderson GK (Out), Scott McKenna CB (Out), Jack Colback CM (Out), Emmanuel Dennis FWR (Out), Jonjo Shelvey CM (Out), Gustavo Scarpa CAM (Questionable).
Arsenal: Gabriel Martinelli (Out), Takehiro Tomiyasu RB (Out), Mohamed Elneny CM (Out), William Saliba CB (Out), Oleksandr Zinchenko LB (Out).