NRL Grand Final 2023 Prediction, Odds & Picks

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30 September 2023

NRL Grand Final 2023 Prediction, Odds & Picks

After a thrilling AFL Grand Final between the victorious Collingwood Magpies and the Brisbane Lions last night, an exciting sporting weekend in Australia will wrap up Sunday with the 2023 NRL Grand Final between the Penrith Panthers and Brisbane Broncos.

For viewers in the United States, the match will kick off at 12:30 am ET and can be seen on FS2.

The Panthers are the two-time defending NRL Grand Final winners, having defeated the Parramatta Eels last year and the South Sydney Rabbitohs in 2021.

The NRL (National Rugby League) in its current form has been in existence since 1998. In that time, no one has won three consecutive grand finals, and the Panthers and the Sydney Roosters (2012 and 2013) are the only two sides to go back-to-back.

So, some history will be on the line at Accor Stadium in Sydney.

While the Panthers are chasing a three-peat in their fourth consecutive NRL Grand Final appearance, the Broncos are looking to lift the trophy for the first time since 2006 in their first Grand Final appearance since 2015.

2023 NRL Grand Final Odds

Odds are via Bovada.

Moneyline

Penrith Panthers -154
Brisbane Broncos +145
Draw +1400

Spread

Penrith Panthers -5.5 (+100)
Brisbane Broncos +5.5 (-130)

Over/Under

Over 38.5 (-115)
Under 38.5 (-115)

Are You New to NRL? Learn the Basics of Rugby League Here

How the Panthers and Broncos Reached the 2023 NRL Grand Final

Penrith Panthers

Qualifying Final (September 9 – BlueBet Stadium, Penrith): #1 Penrith Panthers 32, #4 New Zealand Warriors 6
Semifinals (September 22 – BlueBet Stadium, Penrith): #1 Penrith Panthers 38, #3 Melbourne Storm 4

Brisbane Broncos

Qualifying Final (September 8 – Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane): #2 Brisbane Broncos 26, #3 Melbourne Storm 0
Semifinals (September 23 – Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane): #2 Brisbane Broncos 42, #4 New Zealand Warriors 12

Penrith Panthers vs Brisbane Broncos NRL Grand Final Prediction and Picks

These two teams finished first and second in the NRL regular season standings this season, and it is the first time since 2020 that the competition’s top two teams have reached the Grand Final.

Is a great game in store? The Panthers are favorites and have dominated the head-to-head as of late, but a win for the Broncos would be anything but an upset.

In fact, the Broncos defeated the Panthers at BlueBet Stadium in Penrith in the opening round of the NRL season.

That 13-12 win in March happens to Brisbane’s only win in the last six head-to-head meetings between the two teams, but they won’t be going into this game scared.

Recent Penrith Panthers vs Brisbane Broncos Head-to-Head Results

May 18, 2023 (Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane): 15-4 Panthers
March 3, 2023 (BlueBet Stadium, Penrith): 13-12 Broncos
April 15, 2022 (Penrith): 40-12 Panthers
July 24, 201 (Penrith): 18-12 Panthers
April 15, 2021 (Brisbane): 20-12 Panthers
September 3, 2020 (Brisbane): 25-12 Panthers
August 16, 2019 (Brisbane): 24-12 Broncos
July 20, 2018 (Brisbane): 50-18 Broncos
September 15, 2017 (Brisbane): 13-6 Broncos
April 27, 2017 (Brisbane): 32-18 Broncos

The Panthers have been a dominant force all season, and that has carried over into the NRL finals with routs of the New Zealand Warriors in the qualifying final and the Melbourne Storm in the semis. Overall, they have lost just once in their last dozen games, a 32-18 defeat to the Eels in the penultimate round of the regular season.

Brisbane’s form has been outstanding as well, however. A 32-22 loss to the Storm in the final round of the regular season is their only loss in their last ten games, and in the NRL finals, they throttled the Storm and Warriors much like the Panthers did.

With how stingy both teams have been, we may not see a lot of scoring at Accor Stadium. Also, only four of the previous ten NRL Grand Finals have gone over 38.5 points.

I do expect the Panthers to make NRL history and win their third straight Grand Final, but I am staying away from the spread or moneyline. Instead, I’m making a couple of over/under betting picks that reflect the lower-scoring contest that I expect to see.

Prediction: Penrith Panthers to win

Picks: Penrith Panthers/Brisbane Broncos under 38.5 (-115 at Bovada) & Brisbane Broncos team total under 17.5 (-125 at Bovada)