Nuggets vs Spurs Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

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15 March 2024

Nuggets vs Spurs Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

Michale Porter Jr.'s been settling into his role very well during the Nuggets' recent surge, and our NBA picks don't think the Spurs are well-equipped to cool him off tonight.

In the home stretch of the NBA season last year, the Denver Nuggets were in cruise control. They had a middling record and point differential for the last quarter of the season, leading many to wonder if they were playing possum or simply didn’t have enough to win.

They answered that question definitively when they hoisted the Larry O’Brien that June. This year there is no mistaking their intentions nor their ability. The Nuggets are playing like a man possessed. They’ll look to add to their 10-1 record since the All-Star break when they play the San Antonio Spurs on Friday, March 15.

While the only drama remaining with the Spurs season is whether the NBA odds favor them on draft night, Victor Wembanyama still makes them must-see TV every night.

My NBA picks and predictions for Nuggets vs. Spurs shine a light on Michael Porter Jr’s hot shooting.

Nuggets vs Spurs odds

Nuggets vs Spurs predictions

At a superficial level, the NBA is a league divided into stars and role players. The stars drive the action, and role players support them by leveraging one or two specialized skills to make their jobs easier.

But in reality, almost every NBA player comes into the league dreaming of stardom. And many more than actually become stars probably have the talent to do it. The best of those players who don’t become stars are the ones with the self-awareness enough to realize that they can maximize their impact by instead starring in their roles.

Aaron Gordon spent the beginning of his career trying to be a leading man in the Orlando Magic, but his career took off when he stepped into a tertiary role for the Denver Nuggets. Now Michael Porter Jr. is on a similar track.

Like Gordon, Porter no doubt came into the NBA with the expectation that he would be a star player. And like Gordon, he’s instead slotted into being a star in his role for the defending champions.

Could MPJ do more than he is asked to do now on a nightly basis? Almost certainly. But this version of the Nuggets won the title precisely because he and others on the team are willing to do less but do it better.

MPJ does very little on ball work for the Nuggets, despite being an elite scorer. Instead, he does what he does best, which is the shoot the leather off the ball.

Porter plays like a bigger Klay Thompson: an elite shooter, who rarely dribbles, and does great work off movement. He can square up to the basket off a dead sprint which is a hallmark of only the best movement shooters in the NBA.

The beauty of Porter’s game is that he’s virtually impossible to block. Although Victor Wembanyama is the exception to that rule, he’ll have his hands full guarding the interior against Nikola Jokic and Gordon.

It’s MPJ’s rare combination of movement, shooting, and size that makes him such a nightmare.

It’s difficult enough to guard Klay coming off a screen. You have to stay connected as he moves off ball and slaloming around teammates and opponents to create separation. Then you have to fight over the inevitable screen and reach out to contest but without fouling.

But Porter’s release is so high no guard can realistically do that, and you can count on one hand the number of players tall enough to contest such a shot by MPJ who can fight over a screen well enough to get there in the first place.

Jeremy Sochan and Keldon Johnson are not among them.

MPJ has been on fire since the All-Star break, but these Michael Porter Jr. odds have remained fairly static. He’s shooting 43.8% from three on 7.3 attempts per game over his last 10, and I’m forecasting a similar performance again tonight.

My best bet: Michael Porter Jr. Over 2.5 threes (-125 at DraftKings)

Nuggets vs Spurs same-game parlay

Michael Porter Jr. Over 2.5 threes Victor Wembanyama Over 1.5 threes Nuggets -10.5

Remember when I said that MPJ’s 6-foot-10 height and immense standing reach make his jump shot virtually unblockable? Well, the terrifying prospect for 29 of the of 30 teams in the NBA is Wembanyama developing into anything close to as good of a shooter as Porter is now.

While Wemby has always been eager to take threes, for much of the season it wasn’t always a high value shot. That seemingly has begun to change since the All-Star break.

Victor is shooting 38.7% from downtown on 6.2 attempts per game over his last 10 outings, and it’s a shot that could make him truly unstoppable in the near future.

Because it’s not like he’s just taking static catch and shoots like say, Myles Turner, who has incredible value as a stretch five despite shooting 33% from deep. Wemby is taking a lot of these shots off his own steam, off the dribble, and off the move. These are difficult shots for rookie guards, and he is nailing them at volume against defenses whose entire game plan revolves around slowing him down.

Jokic is not the most fleet of foot as defensive centers go, so I’m bullish on Wemby getting off several clean looks on Friday.

For the final leg of my same-game parlay, I like the Nuggets to cover.

With rare exception, Denver has not played with their food in recent weeks. Other than a game against the Toronto Raptors when they waited until the fourth quarter to flip the switch and seal the victory, the Nuggets have been blowing sub-.500 teams out of the water on the regular.

The gap in quality between these two teams is also so wide that the Nuggets could wind up with a double-digit lead after one quarter, even if they’re not entirely locked in. But they appear more motivated to get every win and lock up the 1-seed than they did earlier this season.

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Nuggets vs Spurs spread and Over/Under analysis

There’s been some vacillation on Friday’s spread between -9.5 and -10.5 favoring the Nuggets, with some sportsbooks now offering the line as high as -11.

The Nuggets and the Spurs played once this season, all the way back on November 26, with Denver winning 132 to 120. The Spurs have made major changes to their style of play since then, including making Wemby the full-time starting center and moving Sochan to a more traditional forward role.

They’ve played a lot more competently since then, but I’m not sure it matters against the Nuggets. Per Cleaning the Glass, Denver has a 122.8 offensive rating over the past two weeks, second best in the Association. They’re also 7-3 against the spread in their last 10 games.

Their ability to force teams into rotation with the Jokic and Jamal Murray two-man game turns puts even the NBA’s best defenses on their heels. The Nuggets are going to create great shots against the Spurs, and there’s little reason to expect San Antonio to be able to do the same. San Antonio remains a Bottom-5 offense despite Victor’s immense talent.

Friday’s total opened at 221.5, saw a slight bump to 224.5 but has dropped to as low as 221.5 after being bet down again.

It will be interesting to see how Victor matches up with Jokic in this one. The degree to which he can defend without fouling or getting knocked off his spot will largely decide if the Spurs can slow down Denver at all. When these teams played in November, Wemby was still playing the four, and Zach Collins took the primary defensive assignment on Jokic.

I’m pretty skeptical that Wemby can stand up to Jokic’s strength in the post, but I also think Victor’s length and high feel could help to limit the threat of Nikola’s passing. It’s a matchup that remains too much of a black box right now for me to feel comfortable betting the total in either direction.