NZ Derby: The rise of Orchestral from Karaka Millions to Derby Glory
James McDonald rode Orchestral to victory in the TAB Karaka Millions 3-year-old race at Ellerslie. Photo / Trish Dunell
The part of a race punters care least about is the part that scares the rival trainers taking on Orchestral the most in tomorrow’s $1 million Trackside NZ Derby.
The special filly will start one of the shortest-priced favourites in the history of the great race at Ellerslie, with her $1.40 TAB final field quote unlikely to budge much because it is so hard to find something to beat her.
Orchestral has smashed many of her rivals tomorrow in both the $1.5 million Karaka Millions over 1600m and then the Avondale Guineas over 2100m last start and bad luck or an inability to carry her dominance to 2400m would seem her greatest dangers.
Many of the trainers preparing to take her on tomorrow fear she may be even more dominant over the longer trip.
“The way she was after the line in both those last two wins was a bit scary,” said trainer Tony Pike, his comments echoed by almost every rival trainer.
Trainers invariably view race day through a different lens than punters. Punters see winners, losers and often imaginary hard-luck stories.
Once the horses hit the line the dividends flash up on the TV, some celebrate, some don’t, and they move on.
Not trainers.
When they survey a parade ring, they study their rivals, looking for who is fit, who needs a run, who looks so tight there is no improvement left. Info stored away for another day.
When they watch a race it is about field position, rhythm and how relaxed their horses are, the small details analysed in milliseconds.
And that scanning for information continues after the race, especially as staying contests like a Derby loom, trainers watching numerous replays to see who took the longest to pull up or those who had had enough by the time they reached the winning post.
In Orchestral’s case, while she won both her recent features effortlessly, she was even further in front by the time she got to the crossing 100m after the line.
That is the sign of a filly whose superiority is only going to be more pronounced by the extra distance.
Those same trainers will tell you the ability to breathe and relax is what will help a brilliant horse extend out to 2400m and trainers Roger James and Robert Wellwood are adamant Orchestral does those two perfectly.
That is why she is in tomorrow’s Derby rather than next week’s Bonecrusher New Zealand Stakes, whereas last year with the similarly-talented Prowess, they refused to ask her to take on 2400m.
They were willing to sacrifice a Derby and an Oaks because they didn’t have the right horse for that job - so the fact Orchestral is starting tomorrow may be all that multi-punters need to know.
The Racing Gods don’t throw a Derby around like confetti so Orchestral will need to be close enough to her peak to win and if she has an off day, the list of challengers resemble an order of Interlinked, Solidify, Just As Sharp, Mosinvader and Ascend The Throne.
Last-start maiden winner First Innings could be the blowout place chance.
Clash of Titans in Haunui Farm Kings Plate
If you love fast horses, tomorrow’s $150,000 Haunui Farm Kings Plate is the race for you. The Group 3 is a rare March treat, bringing together the winners of almost every major sprint in New Zealand this season.
Tomorrow’s 1200m contains Railway winner Waitak (No 1), Telegraph victor Mercurial (2) and BCD Sprint winner Bonny Lass (4), the winners of our three premier summer sprints.
The winners of those races may occasionally clash in one of those three Group 1s but for them to be three different horses and going head to head in March is almost unheard of, especially these days with the lure of huge Australian stakes.
The depth of the King’s Plate doesn’t stop there as Dragon Leap (3) won the Group 2 Foxbridge Plate in August and finished second in the Tarzino Trophy at his next start.
And there are even the two winners of the South Island’s biggest sprints in Maria Farina (5), who won the Stewards on November 18, and Not Guilty (6), who won the Pegasus the week before.
The incredible depth for such a small field, plus the draws, which see last-start BCD Sprint winner Bonny Lass starting from the outside, make for an interesting puzzle for punters.
Mercurial, who has been the biggest mover in our sprint ranks this summer, is best suited by the draw, being an on-pace runner with barrier one, but he is the least suited by the set weights and penalty conditions.
Michael Guerin wrote his first nationally published racing articles while still in school and started writing about horse racing and the gambling industry for the Herald as a 20-year-old in 1990. He became the Herald’s Racing Editor in 1995 and covers the world’s biggest horse racing carnivals.
