Odds in Blackhawks’ favor for No. 1 draft pick again as season winds down
CHICAGO — The Blackhawks weren’t supposed to be this bad.
Blackhawks general manager Kyle Davidson didn’t necessarily go out and look to build a winning roster in the offseason, but he sought to improve it. And with the additions of Taylor Hall, Corey Perry, Connor Bedard, among others, plus what the Blackhawks were returning, a lot of people projected them to finish with more than their 59 points from last season.
The assumption was the San Jose Sharks would run away with last place in the league and take home the best odds of winning the NHL lottery. The Blackhawks’ hope was to land in the standings somewhere around where they did last season, the 29th-31st range, and pray to the hockey gods to get lucky again in the lottery.
That didn’t go according to plan, not that the Blackhawks’ front office is likely complaining privately. But their NHL roster was hit with injury after injury and Perry’s contract was terminated over an internal matter, and the team that Davidson built to begin the season vanished early into the year. On top of that, players like Lukas Reichel, Andreas Athanasiou and Taylor Raddysh underperformed compared to their outputs last season.
What all that equates to is the Blackhawks are in the unexpected position of being below the Sharks in the standings and could very well end the season with the highest odds of winning the draft lottery, which could mean being able to select the No. 1 pick for the second consecutive year. With March now here and 22 regular-season games remaining, the Blackhawks currently sit in 32nd place with 35 points and a .292 points percentage. Their only likely competition down the stretch for last place is San Jose, which has a .305 points percentage with 24 games remaining.
Yes, last place doesn’t guarantee anything, as the Blackhawks proved last season. But it does still provide the best odds (25.5 percent) of winning the lottery. By the way, those odds did pay off for the 32nd-place team the two years before the Blackhawks won the lottery. Plus, finishing in last does mean at worst a top-three draft choice. Outside of consensus No. 1 pick Macklin Celebrini, the top of the 2024 draft may not be as hyped as last year’s first three picks, but it’s obviously still better to draft higher than lower.
The final month and a half should make for an interesting late-place race between the Blackhawks and Sharks. According to The Athletic’s Dom Luszczyszyn’s model, the Blackhawks had a 56-percent chance to finish in last place and the Sharks were at 43 percent before Thursday’s games. Both teams lost again on Thursday.
“I have Chicago’s expected-win percentage at .314, Sharks at .305 — so Sharks technically worse, but it’s close,” Luszczyszyn explained. “The Blackhawks have the current edge mostly due to their current record.”
The trade deadline could impact those projections. Unlike last season, though, the Blackhawks probably won’t lose much at the deadline. They might even get some injured players back in the coming weeks. Athanasiou and Nikita Zaitsev are expected to return before the season ends. As for the Sharks, they have a few players on Chris Johnston’s trade board.
The Blackhawks and Sharks could even determine the final spot with their remaining head-to-head matchups. The Blackhawks host the Sharks on March 17 and face them in San Jose on March 23.
It is worth noting that 12 of the Blackhawks’ final 22 games are on the road, and they’re riding a 21-game road losing streak. Their last road win came on Nov. 9. The Sharks have 12 home games and 12 road games remaining. They’ve been slightly better on the road than the Blackhawks and slightly worse at home.
Of course, something strange may happen to determine the standings, too. The Blackhawks’ win over the Pittsburgh Penguins late last season is a perfect example of that.
Blackhawks coach Luke Richardson and his players are aware of the standings, but it won’t impact their approach.
“I think last year we played as hard as we could until the end, and I just think good things happen when you do the right things,” Richardson said on Thursday. “We got lucky in the lottery last year, and I think we played it the right way until the end as much as we could. I just think that’s the way we’ll approach it this year.”
Blackhawks veteran Nick Foligno had a similar answer earlier this week.
“I’m a believer in good karma,” Foligno said. “I think if you’re really playing to be a good team and a team that’s going to start to move up the standings, then you’re not worried about trying to get a first-overall pick. That’s not shameful, but it’s not the way you should handle a professional season. You should be looking to improve your team regardless of what may be easier. What’s the right way? Is it bringing in a high pick into a culture that’s sustaining winning and making him understand how hard it is to win in this league and having that room that dictates that and every night is competitive? Or is it having the first-overall pick and trying to find your way?
“You’ve seen teams do that: they toil and you don’t really find that culture and understanding of winning because there’s just not that mentality or mindset. I’d rather be the team that has that direction, that has that understanding. Maybe you pick in the later rounds or a second- or third-overall pick and pretty good player. That to me is more important to what we’re trying to accomplish here to get the Chicago Blackhawks back to greatness.”
Could Celebrini be paying attention to how the standings are playing out? Having been in his shoes last year, Bedard didn’t think so.
“No, I’m sure he’s focused on his team right now,” Bedard said. “Obviously he’s an incredible player, having a great year, but they’re in big games. I think the (NCAA) tournament is pretty soon. I don’t think he’s stressing about it too much. He’s trying to play his best hockey. I know that’s where my head was last year.”
As Bedard and the Blackhawks showed last year, the final standings are just one part of the draft equation. Will this year be different? We’ll know soon enough.
