Odds of Blues making the NHL playoffs now are long
Let's play the game of follow the bouncing ball ... er, puck in this case.
After a mediocre start to the season, the Blues fired coach Craig Berube in December and responded by winning three of their first four games under interim replacement Drew Bannister. But the bookies were not impressed as the team remained a longshot to make the playoffs. In fact they were so heavily favored to miss the Stanley Cup tournament that on Dec. 22 a bettor would have had to put up $500 to try to turn a scant $100 profit on them not qualifying for the postseason field. Yeah, a 5-1 ratio risk. Conversely, a successful $100 wager on them getting into the playoffs would have been worth a $380 profit.
Over the ensuing month the team returned to its up-and-down ways, hovering around .500 before again catching fire. The Blues won five of their last six games before the All-Star break arrived in early February and were clinging to the second (and final) wild-card playoff slot in the NHL’s Western Conference.
By then their chances of reaching the postseason had improved, to the point that a successful $100 wager placed at DraftKings (Casino Queen in East St. Louis) would have returned a $220 profit — $140 less than if had it been made two weeks earlier. Correspondingly, a bettor would have to risk "only" $280 to try to win $100 on them failing to make the playoffs, $220 less than two weeks ago.
But now with the Blues having lost three games in a row and four of five and a grueling East Coast swing of five games in seven days looming after a home contest Saturday, the prices again are steep that they will miss the Stanley Cup tournament. Plus there is growing talk of the team being sellers as next Friday's trade deadline approaches. The club entered the weekend seven points out of a playoff slot.
As of Friday afternoon at DraftKings, a $1,000 risk was required in order to try to make $100 on a bet that they will miss the tourney, whereas a $100 wager that they do qualify would yield a $650 profit. The return would on them getting in was worse (+560) at FanDuel (horse track in Collinsville), which was not offering a price on them failing to qualify. The other sportsbook in the area, at Argosy Casino in Alton, did not have this proposition posted.
In the bigger picture, the Blues' odds of being the Western Conference' representative in the Stanley Cup Final ranged from 60-1 at Argosy to 75-1 at DraftKings and 85-1 at FanDuel.
For those really hoping to cash a big ticket, their odds to hoist the Cup varied widely. The return at Argosy was 115-1, it was 160-1 at FanDuel and DraftKings had the price at 200-1.
These "future book" prices shine the spotlight brightly on the huge importance of shopping around. A successful $10 Blues Cup-winning bet — which is not recommended! — would be worth $850 more at DraftKings than at Argosy.
'Mack' attack is back
Flamboyant Houston furniture store owner Jim "Mattress Mack" McIngvale is back in the big-bet business again, having plunked down $1 million this week on the Houston Cougars to win the NCAA Tournament.
He made headlines in 2022 when he won more than $72 million on the hometown Astros winning the World Series. That was the profit on $10 million placed in wagers, spread across several sportsbooks and at varying odds at different stages of the season, on the team to win MLB's title. That is believed to be the biggest sports-betting haul in U.S. wagering history.
McIngvale also has lost big over the years, too. He made a $3 million wager on Texas Christian to win the college football championship last year. The Horned Frogs made it to the title game but were crushed by Georgia. Two years ago he placed a $5 million Super Bowl bet on Cincinnati, which lost to the Los Angeles Rams. But many of his mega wagers are on hometown teams, as he uses the potential payouts to hedge against losses he would take on promotions at his stores that are tied to local teams winning their sport's championship.
That's what's happening with the big basketball bet McIngvale just placed, made at Caesars Sportsbook that would net him a $7.5 million profit if it hits. That money would be used to pay off those who accepted an offer that the money they spent on a specific brand of mattress costing at least $4,000 would be refunded if the Cougars win the tourney title.
"Your purchase is FREE, FREE, FREE!" the Gallery Furniture ad shouts out. "This extremely limited-time offer could end at any moment — don’t miss out!"
Houston currently is No. 1 in the AP poll and has a 25-3 record with three regular-season games remaining, starting Saturday night when the Cougars are at Oklahoma and are an early 5½-point favorite.
This isn't the first time McIngvale has bet big on the Cougars. Last year he wagered $3.5 million on them to win the NCAA tourney, which they entered as the top seed in the Midwest Regional. But they flamed out in the Sweet 16 by losing to Miami.
So don't be surprised if he doesn't add to his $1 million bet before the tourney starts.
City slide
There's no big start this time for City SC backers looking for a quick payday.
Last season, as an MLS expansion franchise, the team won its first game as a big underdog, returning a profit of $475 for every $100 risked for those who bet on the club to win using the three-way line. That includes three options for the outcome — Team A wins, Team B wins or the match ends in a draw. In fact, City SC won its first five games and its betting backers were off and running.
Last weekend, City opened with a 1-1 tie against Real Salt Lake. That was a loser for those who wagered on them to win via that three-way line.
The team, which played in the CONCACAF Champions Cup tournament Tuesday and was eliminated, returns to MLS action Saturday night when it entertains New York City. As of Friday afternoon, the most favorable three-way line price among the area sportsbooks on City to win was +135, at FanDuel (a $100 risk would return a $135 profit).
