Odds, picks, betting tips for Celtics-Heat Game 1
May 17, 2023, 09:00 AM ET
ESPN's fantasy basketball and basketball betting tips cheat sheet is your pregame destination for basketball betting predictions and our best intel and data, featuring ESPN's proprietary Basketball Power Index (BPI) to help you make smart fantasy and wagering decisions. NBA game odds for Wednesday are provided by Caesars Sportsbook.
What you need to know for Heat-Celtics Game 1
Can the Miami Heat accomplish what the Los Angeles Lakers were unable to in Game 1? Which is to pull off the upset versus the higher-seeded foe as heavy dogs on the road? The Boston Celtics sit as sizable favorites in a matchup of modern rivals, as this is the third time in the past four years these teams meet for a trip to the NBA Finals. Let's dive into some specific player analysis ahead of tonight's anticipated tip.
As painful as it was to watch these Celtics down my 76ers, it was equally difficult to watch Malcolm Brogdon, a gifted catch-and-shoot producer, loft open shots. Because of the natural attention Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown will demand from Miami's defenders, Brogdon surfaces as my top player value for DFS tournaments, even those that include Thursday's Western contest.
He enters with a reasonable projection for 29 DraftKings points and could be a savvy play for scoring and shooting props given the shot quality he's likely to consume. There's also more room in this matchup for Robert Williams to shine, as he's no longer countered by Joel Embiid's size or foul-drawing. Remember, Williams shifting to the starting lineup in Game 6 of that series proved pivotal.
For these underdog Heat, Bam Adebayo and Gabe Vincent are solid options to complement Jimmy Butler in both real hoops and our DFS constructions. As these Heat have taught us, they won't go down without a fight.
-- Jim McCormick
Breaking down Heat-Celtics Game 1
Miami Heat at Boston Celtics
Game 1: 8:30 p.m. ET,
Records (against the spread)
Heat: 44-38 (30-49-3)
Celtics: 57-25 (45-36-1)
Line: Celtics (-8) Total: 210.5
BPI projection: Celtics by 11.3
Money line: Heat (+270), Celtics (-345)
Injury report:
Heat: Cody Zeller, (GTD - illness); Tyler Herro, (OUT - hand); Victor Oladipo, (OUT - knee)
Celtics: Danilo Gallinari, (OUT - knee)
Best bet: Heat (+8). This is too many points for a Heat squad that has surprised the first two rounds of the postseason. The Heat have been a covering machine this postseason (8-3 ATS). Miami has the coaching edge, rest advantage and shooters all around. The Celtics are coming off an emotional Game 7 win Sunday. Jayson Tatum dropped 51 points and Boston shot 47% from the field and 46% from 3. This performance will not be easy to recreate. Give me the points with the Heat. -- Erin Dolan
Best bet: Jaylen Brown over 33.5 points + assists + rebounds. The Celtics should not overlook the Heat in this series. Game 1 is crucial and Boston's star players must step up while their shooters find their rhythm. The Heat will undoubtedly focus on making things challenging for Jayson Tatum, creating an opportunity for Brown in the opening game. Brown has averaged 24.6 PPG 3.4 APG, and 5.3 RPG this postseason and is poised to exceed those numbers on Wednesday night. -- Eric Moody
Best bet: Bam Adebayo over 17.5 points. While Jimmy Butler has been outstanding throughout the postseason, it's clear that he can't defeat the Celtics on his own. Enter Adebayo, who is set to make a significant impact in this series. He has proved himself against the Celtics in the regular season, averaging 25 PPG in their four regular-season matchups. Adebayo dropped 28 and 23 points in the two games at TD Garden. Expect him to bring his A-game as he looks to lead the Heat to Game 1 win alongside Butler. -- Moody
Best bet: Jimmy Butler over 27.5 points. Butler didn't do much for his points props in the last series but let's not forget about the series against Milwaukee when he went off for 42, 56, 30, 25 and 35 in five games. I fully expect him to get back on track tonight. Butler is going to carry the Heat on Wednesday regardless of the outcome. -- Steve Alexander
Best bet: Jayson Tatum under 29.5 points. Tatum scored 51, 19, 36, 24, 27, 7 and 39 in seven playoff games last series. He was really struggling to hit 30 points in most of those and the Celtics won't have the "must-win" factor in play tonight. Tatum could easily get loose for a monster line, but given his recent struggles before the Game 7 explosion, I'm looking for him to have a pedestrian night against the defensive-minded Heat team. -- Alexander
Best bet: Celtics (-8). While I don't expect Tatum to go nuts, I do expect the Celtics to hold home court in Game 1. Look for guys like Jaylen Brown, Derrick White, Al Horford and Grant Williams to go off in a win. -- Alexander
