Ohio State's path to the College Football Playoff: a viewing guide

COLUMBUS, Ohio (WCMH) — Ohio State fans will be trading their scarlet and grey gear and wear many fan hats this weekend.

The Buckeyes are one of eight teams with a chance to make this year’s College Football Playoff, the last one that will feature four teams. OSU is the only team among those eight that cannot improve its resume with no chance of winning a conference title after a 30-24 loss last week to Michigan.

After the Buckeyes got help on championship weekend last year to make the playoff, they are hoping history will repeat itself. Every single Power Five conference championship game will impact the playoff picture and the Buckeyes chances of making the semifinals.

Here is a timeline of the weekend and how each game effects the Buckeyes chances of making the playoff.

Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook. For a full explanation of how to read betting odds, 

Friday, 8 p.m.: No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 4 Washington

Betting lines: Oregon (-9.5), Total (66.5)

The journey begins on Friday with a virtual win-and-you’re-in game in Las Vegas. The Pac-12 championship game will feature teams set to join the Big Ten next year: Oregon (11-1) and Washington (12-0).

This is the only title game that is a rematch of a regular-season game after the Huskies edged out the Ducks in Seattle 36-33 on Oct. 14. The game is highlighted by two of the best quarterbacks in the nation: Oregon’s Bo Nix and Washington’s Michael Penix Jr.

With the Huskies unbeaten and the Ducks ranked as the best one-loss team, the winner poised to earn the Pac-12’s final playoff spot before the conference disbands. The biggest unknown is whether the committee will consider a one-loss Washington team if another unbeaten team loses Saturday.

Ideal result for Buckeyes: Washington wins

Saturday, noon: No. 18 Oklahoma State vs. No. 7 Texas

Betting lines: Texas (-15), Total (55.5)

Saturday’s busy slate kicks off in Arlington, Texas, as the Longhorns play their last game as a Big 12 member before moving to the Southeastern Conference.

While the Cowboys (9-3) have no chance to make the playoff, Texas (11-1) is right in the mix if it takes its first Big 12 title since 2009. A victory along with an unbeaten team losing gives them a real shot of making the playoff for the first time.

While Buckeyes fans will cheer for Washington on Friday night, the first of four teams they will cheer for on Saturday is a fellow OSU. An Oklahoma State upset knocks out Texas from the playoff picture.

Ideal result for Buckeyes: Oklahoma State wins

Saturday, 4 p.m.: No. 8 Alabama vs. No. 1 Georgia

Betting lines: Georgia (-6), Total (54.5)

The most anticipated match will be in Atlanta in the SEC final as the Buckeyes will root for the team that beat them in a 2022 playoff semifinal.

Georgia enters having won its last 29 games, including two national championships, but returns to the SEC title game facing the last team it lost to. The Crimson Tide beat Georgia in the 2021 conference championship and are hoping a win propels them to a playoff spot.

An Alabama win and a Texas win will complicate things mightily for Ohio State. With Alabama’s lone loss being to Texas, it’s unlikely the Crimson Tide would get in without a 12-1 Texas team joining them. To keep things simple for the Buckeyes, another Georgia SEC title is exactly what they need.

Ideal result for Buckeyes: Georgia wins

Saturday, 8 p.m.: No. 14 Louisville vs. No. 4 Florida State

Betting lines: Florida State (-2.5), Total (48.5)

The most significant game to watch will be in Charlotte, North Carolina, and the Atlantic Coast Conference title game.

Florida State enters without star quarterback Jordan Travis, who suffered a season-ending injury two weeks ago. The Seminoles are still narrow favorites to win and finish the year 13-0.

An unbeaten team from the Power Five conferences has never been left out of the playoff, so a Florida State win surely clinches its first playoff berth since 2014. An upset by the Cardinals (10-2) opens the door for Ohio State, which was ranked above Florida State when both were unbeaten.

Of all the teams Ohio State needs to win on Saturday, Louisville is the most important.

Ideal result for Buckeyes: Louisville wins

Saturday, 8 p.m.: No. 16 Iowa vs. No. 2 Michigan

Betting lines: Michigan (-23), Total (35.5)

The most lopsided conference title game is the Big Ten’s as Michigan faces Iowa in Indianapolis. The Wolverines are heavy favorites against a Hawkeyes side known for an anemic offense that scores 18 points per game.

Of all the five games, this seems like the one with the most foregone conclusion. A Michigan win easily takes them to a third consecutive playoff appearance and a spot in the Rose Bowl. Incidentally, it’s also the most ideal result for Ohio State.

Assuming Washington, Oklahoma State, Georgia, Louisville, and Michigan win, the playoff committee looks likely to award playoff spots to the following: Georgia (13-0), Michigan (13-0), Washington (13-0), Ohio State (11-1) or Florida State (12-1).

If somehow the Hawkeyes pull off the unthinkable and become the only Big Ten West team to win the conference title before it disbands divisions in 2024, the committee would not put in the Buckeyes over the only team it lost to in Michigan. Although a tough pill to swallow for Buckeyes fans, a Michigan win helps OSU the most.

Ideal result for Buckeyes: Michigan wins

Sunday, noon: College Football Playoff selection show

Betting lines to make playoff: Michigan (-4000), Georgia (-525), Oregon (-290), Florida State (-140), Texas (+140), Alabama (+190), Washington (+235), Ohio State (+1300)

Results in these five games will dictate if Ohio State fans, players, and coaches will be on the edge of their seats watching the selection show.

If all four unbeaten teams win, it will be no surprise to see a Georgia-Florida State semifinal at the Sugar Bowl and a Michigan-Washington semifinal at the Rose Bowl. If one or two of those unbeaten teams lose, the decisions will be difficult.

Should the Buckeyes miss the playoff, they look poised to travel to Miami for the Orange Bowl on Dec. 30. Ohio State’s most likely opponent would be Louisville, a team they have only played twice, in 1991 and ’92.

Likelyplayoff if all favorites win: Georgia, Michigan, Florida State, Oregon

Likely playoff if all underdogs win: Washington, Alabama, Georgia, Michigan