Oilers vs. Maple Leafs prop picks: Bet on Auston Matthews, Connor McDavid

The Edmonton Oilers and Toronto Maple Leafs clash on Saturday night.

The pregame narrative: Three of the NHL’s best players — Auston Matthews, Connor McDavid, and Leon Draisaitl — are in action and we’re looking for all three to come through on the player prop market.

NHL odds as of 9:16 a.m. on 03/11/2023.

Oilers vs. Maple Leafs prop picks

Best Bet: Matthews over 4.5 shots on goal (+110)

Matthews is starting to put more pucks on net which is an encouraging sign as he looks to find his goalscoring touch ahead of the postseason.

It may not seem like much, but Toronto’s top sniper has put four-plus shots on goal in three consecutive games. He hasn’t done that in nearly three months (Dec. 15 - Dec. 20), making this a notable occurrence.

He’s also leading the Maple Leafs’ offensive charge, pacing the squad in scoring chances (17) across the last three contests, according to Natural Stat Trick.

It’s also a plus matchup for Matthews as the Oilers aren’t very good at suppressing opposing shot volume. They’re allowing the 12th-most shots per game this season (31.7), and the sixth-most per 60 (35.3) in the league over the last seven days.

Matthews is starting to heat up, and we’re anticipating a big shooting performance.

Key stat: Matthews is averaging 5.3 shots on goal in his last three outings.

Quick picks

McDavid to score 2+ points (-120): After failing to hit this mark in two of his last three, the line has fallen a bit on McDavid to score two points. We’re going to buy the slight dip and expect a big night from the league’s best player.

McDavid has still cashed this bet in nine of his last 12 contests, including a recent game against the Maple Leafs. In fact, he notched two points in the first period of play in that contest.

The league’s leading scorer has two-plus points in 36 of 66 games this season.

Draisaitl over 2.5 shots on goal (-110): Draisaitl’s deploying more of a shoot-first approach as of late, clearing this line in three of his last four contests. He has 10 shots in his last three outings, tying Ryan Nugent-Hopkins for the team lead in the category.

Additionally, Draisaitl’s second in scoring chances (10) and high-danger chances (5) on the Oilers during this stretch, meaning he’s consistently in on the squad’s offensive attack.