Oleksandr Usyk Vs. Daniel Dubois: Odds, Records, Prediction

While Oleksandr Usyk waits for the next heavyweight title fight that will make him millions upon millions of dollars, he’ll have to settle for a (sort of) homecoming showdown against a former rising star who still might be dangerous. Daniel Dubois’ stock has fallen, but against Usyk on Saturday, he has the chance to reclaim his career and take Usyk’s three heavyweight belts. Here’s everything you need to know about Oleksandr Usyk vs. Daniel Dubois, including the odds, their records and a prediction on who will win.

Usyk, who is No. 4 on my pound-for-pound list, has been feuding with Tyson Fury as both camps tried to make a fight for last April that would have crowned an undisputed heavyweight champion. Usyk, who has three of the four belts, has been credited with trying his best to get Fury in the ring.

But so far, Fury, the lineal champion who holds the other belt, has negotiated himself out of the matchup—most likely, that was intentional, either because Fury is worried about losing to a world-class boxer like Usyk or because he’d rather make tens of millions of dollars fighting MMA star Francis Ngannou, who has no chance of winning.

"I think it's easy money for Tyson Fury," Usyk said, via the BBC. "I think for me it looks a little bit strange, too strange. A guy who is WBC heavyweight champion, instead of fighting a guy from the top 10, suddenly chooses the guy as his opponent coming from the UFC. For Ngannou, this is cool. But for Tyson Fury, it isn't.”

Either way, Fury won’t be in the ring on Saturday. It’ll be Dubois, who certainly has something to prove. Even if he has to do it in Wroclaw, Poland, not far from Usyk’s home county of Ukraine.

“I'm going to shock the world and show people how good Daniel Dubois really is,” he said, via ESPN. “ . . . Usyk has been a great champion, I just need to unleash hell on him.”

But Usyk doesn’t seem all that worried about Dubois’ claims.

“My preparation is all good,” he said. “We did a lot of work with swimming. We played football. We danced."

He certainly did the latter.

Here’s more info on the Oleksandr Usyk vs. Daniel Dubois showdown that U.S. viewers can watch on ESPN+ beginning at 5 p.m. ET on Saturday.

Unsurprisingly, Usyk is a heavy betting favorite at -1000 (bet $1,000 to win $100) while Dubois is the +600 underdog (win $600 on a $100 wager). Neither money line is worth pursuing, but I think there is plenty of value in taking Usyk to win by decision at +240. Sure, Dubois was stopped by Joe Joyce and was knocked down three times in his last fight against a non-elite opponent, but I think Usyk will be content to easily out-box Dubois and win a wide decision.

If you were looking for a fun parlay for this weekend’s action of boxing (and this is only for entertainment purposes), I might take Usyk to win by decision at +240, Jared Anderson to stop Andriy Rudenko at -700 and Efe Ajagba to beat Zhan Kossobutskiy at +160. If all those hit, you’d win $910 on a $100 wager.

After back-to-back wins against a former heavyweight champion in Anthony Joshua, Usyk (20-0, 13 KOs), on paper, should have an easier time against Dubois. Aside from Joshua, Usyk’s biggest victories came at cruiserweight when he became undisputed champion by beating Murat Gassiev and then by stopping Tony Bellew. During his four-fight heavyweight reign, though, Usyk has yet to knock anybody down or stop any of his opponents.

When Dubois (19-1, 18 KOs) faced Joe Joyce in 2020, he was the betting favorite and seemed like the one who was destined for possible heavyweight stardom. Instead, Joyce battered Dubois, and since then, Dubois has been a slightly forgotten man in the division. He’s won four-straight fights, including a knockout of the undefeated Trevor Bryan, but he still has plenty to prove.

At this point, it’s apparent the skill sets of Usyk and Dubois are on completely different levels. I can see Usyk toying with Dubois for most of this fight, and though Dubois’ power gives him a chance (if he can land one or two clean shots on Usyk’s chin), Usyk is good enough to avoid most of the danger. Usyk will win by unanimous decision, somewhere in the 118-110 range.