Oregon vs. Washington Prediction, Preview, and Odds
It’s the Pac-12 Championship from Las Vegas with No. 5 Oregon taking on No. 3 Washington in a Friday night collision for the conference crown. The Ducks (11-1 SU, 8-1 Pac-12) concluded their regular season with a 31-7 win over No. 16 Oregon State as -13.5 favorites. The Huskies (12-0 SU, 9-0 Pac-12) escaped with a 24-21 win against Washington State last Sunday as -16 favorites. Kickoff from Allegiant Stadium is scheduled for 8:00 EST.
Oregon feeling ducky
The Ducks soar into the Pac-12 Championship for the fourth time in the past five seasons on a six-game winning streak. Since their lone loss of the season, which came at the hands of the Huskies, Oregon’s offense averaged 42 points per game. Their 45.3 points and 541.1 total yards per game both rank second in the country. They run the best passing offense, averaging 351.4 yards per game, with 41 touchdowns, tied for most.
Bo Nix leads the nation with 3,906 passing yards, with 37 touchdowns and only two interceptions. The senior gunslinger has completed an astonishing 78.6% of his passes on the year, also tops in the nation. Nix has rushed for six touchdowns and has only been sacked five times. Over his last three games, he has thrown 12 touchdown passes and no interceptions.
On defense, Oregon allowed 15.9 points per game, fewest in the Pac-12 and seventh fewest overall. The 306.9 total yards allowed per game were second fewest in the conference, with just 92.6 of those yards coming via the run. They have recorded 10 interceptions and 32 sacks on the year. Defensive back Evan Williams is second on the team with 4.5 sacks and first with 71 tackles.
Washington cuts it close
The Huskies return to the Pac-12 Championships Game as just one of only five unbeaten teams remaining. Their two prior trips to the title came wound up with hardware, the last coming in 2018. Their last two games of the season were won by a grand total of five combined points though three of their four last opponents were ranked. The Huskies averaged 38 points and 468.1 total yards per game for the season, both third most in the Pac-12.
With 3,899 passing yards, Michael Penix Jr. sits second in the country, seven yards behind Nix. The senior quarterback has thrown for 33 touchdowns and nine interceptions, with just one in his last three games. He has also punched in three touchdowns rushing the ball. Penix has thrown at least two TD passes in each of the last five games.
Washington’s defense allowed 23 points per game during the season, sixth in the Pac-12. Their opponents averaged 399.8 total yards per game against them, fourth most in the conference. They have allowed a good amount of those yards through the air, with 265.2 passing yards averaged against them. The Huskies have picked off 15 passes and recorded 19 sacks. Defensive end Bralen Trice has registered five sacks and 37 tackles.
Best Bets
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It likely hasn’t happened much where an undefeated team, who had already beaten its opponent once during the season, is a near double-digit underdog. It’s a little scary, quite frankly. This is the highest rank of both teams in a Pac-12 Championship game. At the very least, Washington has done entirely too much this season to think that they are going to roll over when it counts the most. Losing by 10 points would be just that. Penix has not lost to Oregon in his career, going 2-0 SU. In October’s meeting he threw for 302 yards with four touchdowns and an interception. Nix threw 44 passes in that game and could not get it done. So, even if you skew those numbers in either direction, this still remains a close game. The Ducks are 6-4 SU over the last ten meetings with Washington, but the Huskies have won the last two games.
Take the Huskies getting the points.
Prediction: Washington +9.5
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We have two of the most prolific offenses in the nation, going head-to-head in a title game, having already played a thriller earlier this season. That game saw these two teams put up 69 total points and over the last two meetings they’ve averaged 70 points with both teams scoring at least 33 points each time out. The Oregon offense has been decimating defenses down the stretch and with so much on the line they are sure to air it out once more. The only reason some of their games landed under was due to their staunch defense but Washington already knows how to score against them. They put 36 points on them the first time and this game is going to turn into a shootout sure to clear this total with room.
Take the over.
Prediction: Over 67
A sportswriter for over a decade, Craig has covered everything from the little leagues to the big leagues. His work has been seen on MLB.com, ESPN.com and in the sports pages of the Boston Globe and Miami Herald, among others. Having had a front-row seat to all the action, he has been able to positively blend a little bit of the old and the new when it comes to analyzing the game and breaking it all down. Though longing for the days of the old football card that would be passed around in the halls of high school, Craig is happy to see the business flourishing and ready to put his own mark on things as he joins our team here at StatSalt and Winners & Whiners.
