Orioles-Angels prediction: Picks, odds on Monday, September 4

The Baltimore Orioles look to stretch their lead in the AL East as they wrap up their West Coast swing with three games against the Los Angeles Angels. First pitch from Angel Stadium on Monday is set for 9:38 p.m. ET. Exciting rookie Grayson Rodriguez (4-3, 5.03 ERA) will get the nod for Baltimore, while L.A. counters with lefty Kenny Rosenberg (0-0, 6.43).

The O’s enter as -192 favorites on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the Angels at +160. The run total is set at 9.

Orioles-Angels picks: Monday, September 4

Injury report

Orioles

Out: RP Felix Bautista (UCL), SP John Means (Tommy John), RP Keegan Akin (back)

Angels

Out: SP Chase Silseth (concussion), SS Zach Neto (back), OF Mike Trout (hamate), 1B C.J. Cron (back), C Max Stassi (hip), OF Jo Adell (oblique), RP Ben Joyce (elbow), 3B Anthony Rendon (wrist), INF Gio Urshela (hip), OF Taylor Ward (facial fractures), SP/RP Jose Suarez (shoulder)

Starting pitchers

Grayson Rodriguez vs. Kenny Rosenberg

One of the top prospects in all of baseball entering the season, Rodriguez struggled mightily in his first taste of the Majors, getting sent back down to Triple-A at the end of May. Since coming back up to start the second half, though, the righty has started to look like a future star: Over eight starts since July 17, Rodriguez has put up a 2.83 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, .199 expected batting average and a measly 36% hard-hit rate. His fastball command has been much better of late, and all three of his offspeed pitches have batting averages below .200.

Rosenberg, on the other hand, has allowed five runs, nine hits and a whopping 7 BB in just seven innings of work at the Major League level this season — all of which have come in relief. (He allowed four runs on seven hits and five walks in five innings against the Astros on August 11, then threw two innings of one-run ball against the Reds a couple of weeks later.) The Minors haven’t gone much better for the 28-year-old: He’s pitched to a 4.95 ERA across 20 starts at Triple-A.

Over/Under pick

This is a tricky one. Rodriguez has been great of late, but so have the Orioles bats, and they could hit this over all by themselves against a pitcher in Rosenberg who’s only making this start due to the dysfunction (and injuries) that’s surrounded the Angels over the last month or so. Baltimore has put up five or more runs in five of their last six games, and if L.A. can add even a run or two of their own here, I think this over hits.

Pick: Over 9

Moneyline pick

Don’t overthink this one. Rodriguez has been cooking with gas for almost two months now, and he’ll get to go up against an Angels offense with a litany of injuries and baseball’s second-worst OPS against righties since the start of August. The O’s have the much better pitcher and the much deeper (and healthier) lineup here, and they should keep things rolling.