Oscars Long-Shot Predictions, Picks
With the Guild awards behind us, clear favorites have been emerging ahead of the 2023 Oscars. However, there are always surprises. Here are the best 2023 Oscars long-shot picks.
“Everything Everywhere All at Once” became just the fifth movie to sweep the top prizes at each of the four major guild awards. It's now the clear favorite for Best Picture, as every movie that's swept the guild awards has gone on to win the Oscars’ biggest prize.
However, certain movies weren't eligible for those major awards. “The Banshees of Inisherin” could not compete for the WGA award for Best Original Screenplay against “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” and “All Quiet on the Western Front” wasn't eligible for the PGA Awards.
Could there be an upset for the biggest award of the night on Sunday? We take a look at that and some of the other categories while looking for a long-shot winner.
Here are our best Oscars long-shot predictions.
Oscars Long-Shot Predictions
Best Picture - All Quiet on the Western Front (+1400 via FanDuel Sportsbook)
“Everything Everywhere All at Once” is heavily favored. However, this year's field is very strong, and thanks to ranked voting, there could be a surprise if enough people in the Academy are lukewarm on The Daniels' wild sci-fi ride.
“All Quiet on the Western Front” is still receiving plenty of attention. Netflix’s German hit dominated the BAFTAs while winning seven awards, including Best Film. The movie is controversy-free, and it's a phenomenal remake of a film that won Best Picture at the Oscars in 1930.
Only one film has won the PGA award for Best Theatrical Motion Picture over the last five years and then not taken the Oscar. That was “1917,” which went on to lose to “Parasite," an international film that wasn’t eligible for the PGA award. Don't be surprised if we see history repeat itself on Sunday.
Best Actor - Colin Farrell (+1100 via FanDuel)
While many believe Best Actor has become a two-horse race between Brendan Fraser and Austin Butler, we’re not so sure about that. Fraser won the SAG for his beautiful performance in “The Whale,” and Butler managed to beat Farrell at the BAFTAs, when “Banshees of Inisherin” actually did well.
But will enough people have seen “The Whale” to get Fraser over the hump? We've seen Oscars voters leave great performances out in the cold because of subject matter. Just look at Naomi Watts in “The Impossible” and Mickey Rourke in “The Wrestler," also directed by Darren Aronofsky.
Butler’s performance as Elvis was great, but he hasn’t been around the industry very long, and sometimes that's all it takes to lose an Oscar. Colin Farrell has been at it for a long time. He's a respected actor who earned his first Oscar nomination with this film. Look for him to potentially surprise the field because of that and the accessibility to his movie.
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Best Director - Steven Spielberg (+850 via FanDuel)
It’s hard to find another category with a true long shot that holds a realistic chance. Best Supporting Actress is wide open, but Kerry Condon at +240 is hardly a long shot. Cate Blanchett and Michelle Yeoh are dominating the field for Best Actress, and Ke Huy Quan is a lock for Best Supporting Actor. While both screenplay categories could generate upsets Sunday, “The Banshees of Inisherin” is +110 for Original Screenplay, and “All Quiet on the Western Front” is +160 for Adapted Screenplay on DraftKings.
Therefore, we’re looking at the Best Director category. Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert are as close to a lock for this award as possible. The only thing standing between them and their Oscar is Steven Spielberg.
He's arguably the most respected and loved director in film history. He's been nominated for nine Best Director Oscars, but hasn't won since 1998 for “Saving Private Ryan." His film “The Fabelmans" will struggle to win in any other category. But one of Hollywood's greatest directors made a movie about a love of film. Voters will want to reward Spielberg in some way.
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