Ottawa Senators vs. Anaheim Ducks Prediction, Preview, and Odds
Two of the bottom teams in the NHL will square off on Wednesday night at 10:00 p.m. EST in the Honda Center when the Anaheim Ducks host the Ottawa Senators. Anaheim is 7th in the Pacific division with 47 points in 61 games and Ottawa is 8th in the Atlantic division with 53 points in 59 games. The Senators are trying to escape their current losing streak while the Ducks are trying to climb to over .500 in their last ten games with a win. Ottawa is still the money line favorite at a -150 while the total is set at 6.5 goals.
Ottawa Out of It
Ottawa lost their most recent matchup to the Philadelphia Flyers by a score of 4-2. Thomas Chabot and Vladimir Tarasenko scored one goal each for the Senators while four different players provided an assist. Jakob Chychrun had the most shots on goal with five and Mads Sogaard made 36 of 39 saves.
Ottawa's offense is at least in the upper half in scoring, ranking 13th with 3.27 goals per game and 8th in shots with 32.3 per game on average. They are also 13th in the face-off circle with a 50.9% win rate. However, they are 27th on the power play with an 16.4% success rate. Tiim Stutzle leads the squad with 56 points and 42 assists, but Tkachuk has a team-high 26 goals for the Senators despite leading the team with 104 penalty minutes as well. Ridley Greig has a team-best +17 and Tkachuk has the most goals on the power play with seven. Stutzle has gotten 12 of his assists from the power play and Tkachuk has the most shots for Ottawa with 248. Stutzle leads all offensive skaters with 21:04 of average ice time.
Defensively is where the Senators are lacking, as they have surrendered an average of 3.59 goals per game, ranking 30th in the NHL. They crack the top-20 in shots against with 30.1 per contest, but their kryptonite is on the penalty kill. They are ranked second to last with a 73.7% kill rate. Jakob Chychrun leads the blue-liners in points (31), assists (22), goals (9), shots (145), and power play assists (8). Thomas Chabot takes the cake in average time spent on the ice with 23:59 while Chychrun has four goals on the power play and a defense-high 50 penalty minutes. Artem Zub leads the defenders with a +10. Joonas Korpisalo has gotten the majority of starts in net for the Senators, but he has not done a good job. He currently has a 3.41 GAA and an 88.7% save percentage. His backup, Anton Forsbreg, has a 3.29 GAA and an 88.8% save percentage. Ottawa has six players on the injury report including Korpisalo and Tkachuk. Both are probable for Wednesday's contest, but three others are out indefinitely while Forsberg is questionable with a lower body injury.
Anaheim Ahead of the Sharks At Least
The Ducks couldn't score in the 2nd or 3rd period against the Vancouver Canucks and eventually fell by a score of 2-1 in their most recent contest. Alex Killorn scored the lone goal for the Ducks while Max Jones and Urho Vaakanainen provided an assist each. Frank Vatrano had the most shots on goal with four while Lukas Dostal made 29 of 31 saves.
While the Ducks are showing some signs of promise after their disastrous season last year, they still have a long way to go. As it stands, they are ranked 29th in shots against with an average of 33.2 per game. Their penalty kill is ranked 27th with a 75.5% kill rate, and they are 28th in goals against per game with 3.52. Both John Gibson and Lukas Dostel have split time in net, with Gibson playing in more games so far. Gibson has a GAA of 3.15 compared to Dostal's 3.61, but Gibson has an 89.8% save percentage while Dostal has a 90.2% save percentage. Cam Fowler has the most points among defenders with 28 including 24 assists. Radko Gudas has the best +/- ratio among defenders with a +15 while also leading the team with 105 penalty minutes. Cam Fowler has logged the most ice time on average with 24:36 per game and he leads the squad with 12 assists on the power play. Fowler has the most shots among defenders with 82, while Gudas has six goals to his name.
On the offensive side, Frank Vatrano has the most points overall with 48 including 29 goals but Troy Terry has a team-high 29 assists. Gustav Lindstrom has a forward-high +10 and Ross Johnston has a forward-high 94 penalty minutes. Alex Killorn has spent the most time on the ice per game among offensive skaters with 18:35. Eleven of Vatrano's goals have come on the power play and Troy Terry is second on the team with seven power play assists. Vatrano leads the squad with 191 shots overall. As a unit, the offense ranks 29th in goals scored per game at 2.64. They are also 18th on the power play with a 19.6% success rate, but their face-off percentage is a poor 48.5%, ranking 23rd in the NHL. Anaheim will need to put up more shots as well, as they are ranked 28th with 27.6 per game. Five players are listed on the injury report for Anaheim. Gibson is questionable to play with an illness while Mason McTavish is questionable with a lower-body injury. Trevor Zegras will return in March after dealing with an ankle injury, Brock McGinn is out indefinitely with an upper-body injury and Leo Carlsson is questionable with an upper body injury.
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Anaheim has taken the last four of six meetings against the Senators and Ottawa seems to be a completely different team on the road as opposed to at home. Their 8-17-1 record is alarming to say the least, especially when you compare it to their 17-14-2 home record. The Senators have been a liability on defense in these last few games, giving up an average of nearly 5.0 goals against per contest. Anaheim has taken wins in two of their last three games, with their loss coming at the hands of the best team in the West by only one goal. Considering this is almost a toss-up game, I like taking the underdog as it maximizes my rewards should I win. It also helps to note that if you placed a $100 bet on the money line for each team in every single game, you would be up $105 with Anaheim and down $322 with Ottawa.
Prediction: Anaheim Ducks Money Line (+126)
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Ottawa's offense has been slipping as of late in terms of goal-scoring production while they have also hit the under in seven of their last ten games played. The Ducks have hit the under in three of their last five matchups and they have hit the under in the majority of their games this season as well. What stands out to me most is that these two squads are 9-1 on the under in their last ten meetings against each other, with the last three totals set at 6.5. The less to be said about Anaheim's offense the better and the Senators have only scored a total of nine goals in their last four games.
Prediction: Under 6.5
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