Our Best Bets for January 3
De'Aaron Fox's ability to score in bunches is well-known, but his ability to fill the stat sheet in other ways has gone a tad bit under the radar. With a fast-paced matchup and lots of opportunity, our NBA props are going Over his rebounds + assists total.
It’s a light night on the NBA schedule with just three games on the NBA odds board, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t plenty of value to be found in the player prop market.
We inspect Giannis Antetokounmpo as he looks to break the Bucks out of a funk, back a certain Celtic on the glass against OKC, and back De'Aaron Fox to continue stuffing the stat sheet when the Kings take on the Jazz.
I break it all down in my best NBA player prop picks for Tuesday, January 3.
NBA player props for January 3
Picks made on 1/3/2023 at 2:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Today’s best NBA player props
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
Greek Freak returns
The Washington Wizards have started the New Year off with a bang. They've won five games in a row, including a 118-95 win on New Year’s Day over tonight’s opponent, the Milwaukee Bucks. That said, Giannis Antetokounmpo didn't play in that game but should suit up tonight.
The Greek Freak is probable for this matchup and will be playing at home this time around. And while sportsbooks are expecting a big night, his 33.5-point scoring total still might not be high enough.
While the Milwaukee Bucks haven’t looked exactly right at times, Giannis continues to do his thing. The two-time MVP is averaging 32.1 points with 11.8 assists and 5.8 assists this season, and prior to sitting out the last game against the Wiz, he was on fire. Antetokounmpo had put up a ridiculous 42 or more points four times over his previous six games.
And even though the Wizards have some solid defensive numbers, Antetokounmpo is just a terrible matchup for them. Kristaps Porzingis and Deni Avidja aren’t exactly known for their defense.
After losing five of their last six games, the Bucks need another strong performance out of Giannis to help them break out of this funk. I think that’s exactly what happens and even at this high number, I’m betting Over. Don't be shocked if he puts up another 40-burger.
Brown gets busy on the boards
The Boston Celtics began the New Year by seeing their four-game winning streak come to an end. But there isn’t much else for the Celtics to complain about as they brought the NBA's best record into 2023. Now, they’ll look to start a new streak when they visit the Oklahoma City Thunder on Tuesday night.
At 15-21, the Thunder have been a scrappy Western Conference team led by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. However, while OKC is scrappy, the team is undersized and that has cost them on the boards. The Thunder rank 26th in rebounding rate and dead last in opponent rebounds per game.
And my favorite Celtic to take advantage of that fact is Jaylen Brown. He's averaging 7.3 rebounds per game this season and that number has bumped up to 8.2 over 15 games since the start of December.
Brown has had to put in more work on the glass through the early part of the season thanks to Robert Williams and Al Horford battling injuries to this point. Horford is expected to suit up for this one but Williams is questionable.
Either way, the Thunder love to run a small-ball lineup much of the time, meaning Brown can log minutes as a small-ball big. Brown has grabbed eight or more boards eight times over the last 15 games, so getting plus money in this matchup is a solid value.
Jaylen Brown Prop: Over 7.5 rebounds (+110)
Fit for a King
The Sacramento Kings have been one of the better stories through the first part of the NBA season. The team sits at 19-16 and in fifth place in the Western Conference thanks to its high-octane offense. Center Domantas Sabonis and point guard De’Aaron Fox led the way and both could have a big night when they visit the Utah Jazz... but it’s Fox who has my favorite prop bet.
The Kings' star point guard is having his best shooting year of his career with a .550 effect field goal percentage, but he’s been doing much more than that. He's also averaging 5.9 assists and 4.7 rebounds per game and is basically the catalyst for a team that ranks seventh in offensive rating.
Fox is getting a rebounds + assists total of 10.5 for this matchup against the Jazz. He's averaging 11.1 assists and rebounds over his last nine games, which includes him racking up 10 assists and three rebounds in a matchup against this same Jazz team just a few days ago.
The Jazz plays a somewhat similar style to the Kings, as both plays at a decently high pace. Which means more shots, and in turn, more rebounds and assists. The Jazz rank 18th in opponent assists and 19th in opponent rebounds allowed to opposing guards.
I’m betting Fox does a sly job of stuffing the stat sheet and goes Over 10.5 rebounds + assists.
De'Aaron Fox Prop: Over 10.5 rebounds + assists (+100)
