Our Best Bets for March 3
Lauri Markkanen's been putting in more effort on the glass, and may not get a better matchup to bully the boards than tonight. Find out why the likely MIP highlights our NBA player prop picks for Friday.
There’s no better way to kick off the weekend than by building your bankroll with some winners in the NBA player prop market. And with 10 games on the schedule, there's no shortage of options in the NBA odds.
Tonight, we take a look at the red-hot Julius Randle in a tough matchup against the Miami Heat. Kevin Durant has an eye-popping point total in his second game with the Phoenix Suns. And Lauri Markkanen continues to be a double-double machine for the Jazz.
Here are my best NBA player prop bets for Friday, March 3.
NBA player props for March 3
Picks made on 3/3/2023 at 10:15 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Today’s best NBA player props
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
Randle heats up
I don’t mean to sound shocked, but the New York Knicks are playing really good basketball right now. So well in fact, that they’ve won seven in a row and are 3-point road favorites when they visit the Miami Heat tonight.
Part of the reason for the Knicks’ current run is that Julius Randle is arguably playing his best basketball of the season. During this winning streak, Randle is putting up 27.4 points per game while shooting 48.6% from the floor while adding 7.3 rebounds and 3.9 assists per game.
But Randle has been on fire shooting the 3-ball over his last four games in particular. The Knicks’ power forward has drained a crazy good 19 of his last 41 attempts from beyond the arc (46.3%) in those contests and he should continue to let it fly against the Heat tonight.
Miami is a sound defensive team, but its style is collapsing on the ball when it moves to the inside, and a smart opponent can kick it out for open looks from 3-point range. As a result, Miami ranks 22nd in opponent 3-point attempts and 21st in opponent 3-point shooting percentage.
While Randle does work both down low and on the perimeter, he knows his best chance for success tonight will be away from Heat big man Bam Adebayo.
In his last game against the Heat, Randle went 3-for-9 from beyond the arc and he’s hit four or more in three of his last four games. At +136, there is value for him to go Over 3.5 made threes tonight.
Julius Randle prop: Over 3.5 3-pointers made (+136)
No points to prove
Kevin Durant has a point total of 21.5. I repeat. Kevin Durant has a point total of 21.5.
What? Do you need more?
I know this isn’t just his second game with the Phoenix Suns, but his second since his return from a knee injury. The Suns eased KD into their lineup playing him just 26 minutes in his debut. But he’s still KD and made the most of the minutes, going 10-for-15 from the field for 23 points against the Charlotte Hornets on Wednesday.
I wouldn’t expect Durant’s minutes to go down tonight when the Suns visit the Chicago Bulls.
Plus, over his final 20 games with the Brooklyn Nets Durant was averaging 30.5 points per game on 58.1% shooting. He went for 23 or more all but twice during that stretch, one being his final game where he got injured and had to leave the game early.
The Bulls are solid defensively, but they must be dreading the fact they have to play KD again already despite the fact he’s in the West now. Durant went for 32 and 44 points in two games against the Bulls this season.
I’m just not sure how much longer we’re going to see Durant with a point total this low, and I’ll happily take advantage while it lasts.
Kevin Durant prop: Over 21.5 points (-119)
Above the Lau
Lauri Markkanen has certainly deserved his All-Star selection. The Utah Jazz stretch-four has been outstanding in averaging 25.3 points on 51.2% shooting from the field while adding 8.6 rebounds per game. And since the start of January, he has been an absolute double-double machine.
That’s partly because Markkanen has put in a little more on the boards in the second half of the season. Through his first 40 games, Markkanen was averaging 8.1 rebounds per game, but over the last 17, that number has bumped up to 9.1. And as a result, Markkanen has recorded 10 of his 24 double-doubles over that 17-game stretch.
The Jazz’s big man will have a great opportunity to record another one tonight when he and his teammates visit the Oklahoma City Thunder.
Now, OKC is a fun and scrappy team. And the best bet against the spread in the NBA. That said, their roster has some flaws — the biggest of which is their lack of size. This is an undersized team that plays a lot of small-ball lineups, and while that benefits them in some ways, it costs them on the glass.
The Thunder rank 26th in the NBA when it comes to rebounding rate, but more than that, there are just a ton of boards up for grabs in Thunder games.
OKC plays at a very high pace, and no one takes more shots per game than they do. But they also rank 20th in effective field goal percentage, which means a lot of rebounds.
Like I said, Markkanen has been a double-double machine recording 10 in his last 17 games, including notching one against this same Thunder team on Feb. 23 and we are still getting +130? Sign me up.
Lauri Markkanen prop: To record a double-double (+130)
