Our Best Bets for March 8

The Cavaliers' Donovan Mitchell goes up against a stingy Heat defense tonight, but he should keep his cool. His assist total tops our daily NBA player prop picks.

The NBA has a seven-game slate to get you over the hump on Wednesday night, and we dig into those matchups for our best NBA player prop picks for March 8.

NBA player props for March 8

Picks made on 3/8/2023 at 12:10 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Today’s best NBA player props

The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.

Friendly Neighborhood Spida-Man

Cleveland Cavaliers guard Donovan Mitchell will be the focal point of the Miami Heat’s defense tonight, and he takes on a squad that ranks No. 5 in defensive rating. Miami relies on double-teaming their opponent’s stars and putting the pressure on role players to do the damage.

The last time Mitchell took on Miami, he scored only 16 points on 6-of-17 shooting, and that constant hounding forced Mitchell to move the ball, which trickled down into nine assists during the 100-97 loss at home on Jan. 31.

Mitchell averages 4.8 assists an outing, which is pretty much right where his assist total for tonight sits, with Over 4.5 dimes at +116. He’s averaging just 4.3 assists per contest since that last meeting with Miami, but has recorded a total of 14 assists in the two head-to-heads with the Heat this season.

Miami’s active approach on defense prompts more passing from foes, with the Heat allowing the third-highest assist per field goal made ratio in the league.

That defense just put the clamps on some fellow high-scoring guards and forced them to become passers, with Hawks star Trae Young owning assist totals of seven and 10 in back-to-back games with Miami. Knicks guard Jalen Brunson had eight helpers versus the Heat last week, and James Harden recently totaled 17 assists in two straight games with Miami.

Donovan Mitchell prop: Over 4.5 assists (+116)

Big Al

Veteran forward Al Horford is set to return to the Boston Celtics' lineup against the Portland Trail Blazers tonight after sitting out Monday’s matchup in Cleveland, which was the second night of back-to-back games.

Horford has been a steady source of points for the Celtics since the middle of February, averaging almost 14 ppg in those eight outings. His biggest contribution to the offense is his outside shooting and ability to stretch the floor when guarded by opposing bigs.

Horford is 29-for-49 from beyond the arc in those showings, knocking down 3.6 triples per contest. He was 6-for-10 from distance in the double overtime loss to the Knicks on Sunday, and has made at least three triples in four of his last five games.

His Over/Under on 3-pointers made versus Portland is sitting at 1.5, with the Over listed as low as -157, which is a price I’ll gladly pay considering Horford’s hot hand and the Celtics’ uptick in activity from outside.

Boston has been much more aggressive from outside the past two games after head coach Joe Mazzulla criticized his team's lack of activity from beyond the arc to start the post-break slate. The Celtics watched their 3-point attempts dwindle to 35.6 per game in the first five games back from the break, but have since launched up a total of 93 3-point shots in regulation (107 overall) in a pair of overtime losses.

Boston battles a Portland defense ranked among the worst in the association. The Blazers allow foes to fire at a 37% success rate from 3-point range, and roll out a very thin frontcourt to keep an eye on Horford, with starting center Jusuf Nurkic listed as questionable for tonight.

Portland and its superstar Damian Lillard aren't shy about shooting from deep, averaging 39 attempts from the perimeter in the seven games since the break. The game script paints a high-scoring win for the Celtics, with the total at 231 and the home team laying 10 points.

I expect Horford to keep the triples coming and make at least two from deep tonight.

Al Horford prop: Over 1.5 3-pointers (-157)

By George

The Los Angeles Clippers finally snapped a six-game losing skid with a win over Memphis on Monday, thanks in large part to Paul George’s 42 points. The Clippers forward went 12-for-23 from the field, including four made triples, and made 14-of-15 free throws.

Los Angeles’ recent woes can’t fall on George, who has averaged more than 27 ppg since the All-Star break. George has flourished in the smaller lineups head coach Tyronn Lue is rolling out since acquiring Russell Westbrook, with the Clippers making a 180 in terms of tempo.

Before the break, L.A. ranked 24th in pace rating (98.24), and was averaging just over 111 ppg. However, since the annual hiatus, Los Angeles is running out the second fastest tempo, and ranks No. 2 in pace (102.89) while lighting up the scoreboard to the tune of 125.5 average points in that six-game span.

Tonight’s opponent, the Toronto Raptors, will throw fuel on that frenetic fire. The Raptors like to push the ball in transition and fire up almost 91 field goal attempts per game — sixth most in the NBA — while scoring the third-most fastbreak points per contest.

George’s point total for tonight is sitting at 23.5, with the Over listed at -110. The game total is at 230 points, which is the largest Over/Under number in nine games for the Raptors. George scored 23 points on the road against Toronto back in late December — a game with a 219-point total that went Over despite a slower pace rating of 98.0.

I’m calling for a track meet in Los Angeles tonight, and George will be leading the way with another stellar scoring effort.

Paul George prop: Over 23.5 points (-110)