Over/Under Sports Betting Explained

M Live

09 July 2023

Over/under totals betting has nothing to do with who wins the game. It’s simply predicting how many total points, runs or goals will be scored.

What does over/under mean in sports betting?

Oddsmakers will set a total – also known as the “over/under” – like they do with the point spread, and you can bet either side of it. One number will be given, such as ‘47′ for an NFL game total. You can then either bet the ‘over’ or the ‘under’ and it’s exactly as it sounds. If you bet the over, you want there to be more than 47 combined points scored, and if you bet the under you want there to be fewer than 47.

Totals will always be posted right alongside the point spread and money line, and they are one of the most popular bets to make. Like with the point spread, the total is not static and can change regular before the game begins. Whereas the odds change with a money line bet, the number changes with the point spread and total. It may go from 47 up to 49, or back down to 45 in the run-up to an NFL game. Totals can vary widely even within one sport, depending on if teams are offensive or defensive-oriented. If it’s two teams with explosive offenses like the Chiefs and Packers, the game might have a total in the mid to high 50s. If it’s a game between two run-first, defensively strong teams, it can often be in the low 40s.

How to bet over/under points totals

Totals will always be easy to find at sportsbooks, but it’s important to have multiple sportsbooks at your disposal, since the lines on totals can vary from shop to shop. Once you compare the odds and find the best number, simply place your bet on either the over or the under.

There are many strategies and considerations to keep in mind when betting over/unders. Injuries can make a huge difference when betting totals. If a star NBA player who averages 25 points per game but isn’t very good on the defensive end is ruled out, that can cause the total to drop significantly. In sports like basketball, football and hockey where there’s a clock running, pace of play is very important. Certain teams and coaches elect to play a lot faster than others. It’s crucial to get a sense of which coaches want to push tempo in certain situations. If you can get the hang of that, you can become a great over/under totals bettor.

Weather conditions are also essential to track for outdoor sports. An NFL game can become much sloppier offensively if heavy rain or snow is in the forecast. Wind can greatly impact MLB totals depending on if it’s blowing in toward home plate and keeping balls in the ballpark, or vice versa.

Can you get a push when betting the over/under totals

Pushes can happen when betting totals, depending on if there’s a “hook” or not. A hook is when a number has a .5 at the end of it, which ensures a push can’t happen. If a total is 47.5, either the over or the under has to win since obviously a game can’t have exactly 47.5 total points scored. In sports like baseball, a push can actually turn into a guaranteed win. If you bet the over 8.0, and the score becomes tied 4-4 at some point, that’s the same as winning. That’s because at least one team will have to score again for the game to end, ensuring there are at least nine runs scored. A total push isn’t the same as winning, but at least you get your initial wager amount back.

What happens if a game goes to overtime in over/under bets

In most sports, if a game goes to overtime, nothing changes. The total you bet is still the same total the game will be graded on, whether it goes to one overtime or three. Overtime can be brutal for under bettors. You could be sitting on an under 220 ticket in an NBA game that is 100-100 at the end of regulation. The bet looked great for four quarters, but then can go sailing over 220 points in overtime. The same goes for extra innings in baseball. When pondering how much weight to put on overtime when betting a total, keep in mind that it’s not equally likely in all sports. Since NFL games are lower scoring than NBA games, they’re naturally more likely to go to overtime. NFL games go to overtime around 12 percent of the time, while NBA games go to an extra period a little over six percent of the time.

What are the best sportsbooks for betting on over/unders

Not all sportsbooks are the same. It’s important to have a wide variety of options, so that you can shop around. Sports betting is like any other market, and it’s all about getting the best number. If you were buying a stock, you’d want to get it at the best possible price, and sports betting isn’t any different. You should also always check which promotions and bonuses are being offered. Many sportsbooks will have promotions tied to over/under betting. FanDuel Sportsbook is a leader in the U.S., and they’ll often have ‘boosted’ lines where you can temporarily get more favorable odds. DraftKings, BetMGM and Pointsbet are some of the other leaders in the industry that can be good options for betting totals.

Most sportsbooks will offer a ton of different totals, not just on the full game. You can bet first-quarter totals, first-half totals, and depending on the book maybe even alternate totals. Alternate totals allow you to get better odds for taking a bigger risk. If an NBA total is 217, a sportsbook like FanDuel may let you take over 225 at +200. You get 2/1 odds, but you also need eight more total points to be scored.

Football over/under betting

The NFL is the most popular sport to bet on in the U.S., and as such so are its totals. NFL totals are perhaps most dictated by style of play. Each NFL team’s strategy will change from week to week. For example, if the Vikings have played in some high-scoring games recently, it may cause their totals to be set pretty high. The next week they are playing the Lions, and the Lions have a bad run defense all year. The Vikings might opt to change their strategy for that game and attack the Lions on the ground, keeping the clock churning and the game moving at a slower pace.

Figuring out situations like that, where you think you have an idea of how one team is going to attack the other is key to NFL totals betting. Identifying potential matchup mismatches is also important. If a team with a terrible offensive line is going up against a team with an elite pass-rush, that team probably isn’t going to have too much success passing the ball.

Basketball over/under betting

Basketball over/under betting is all about the pace. Since an NBA game these days usually has at least a couple hundred points, it all comes down to the number of shots being chucked up. Totals in today’s NBA usually range from the low 210s to as high as the upper 230s. It all depends on which teams are playing, since some like to run-and-gun and others like to slow things down to a snail-like pace. Some teams attempt a ton of three-pointers, while others like to score more around the rim. With teams that rely heavily on outside shooting, there’s going to be more game-to-game variance. Like with the point spread, NBA and college basketball total bets can often be determined by fouls and free throws at the end of the game. That can be frustrating, but you can also carve out an edge if you gain an understanding of which coaches and teams are likely to draw out the end of games.

Baseball over/under betting

Baseball over/under betting is different than with most other sports. It’s the only one of the major sports that doesn’t have a clock, so pace of play isn’t important. Style of play also isn’t as important, as every team is just aiming to score as many runs as possible. For baseball totals betting, the pitching matchups and weather are two of the most important factors. If an elite pitcher like Jacob deGrom is on the mound, the total might be as low as seven, no matter the opposing pitcher. In a game where the two starters are a couple of middling journeymen, it’s not uncommon to see totals in the double digits. Baseball is also unique in that every stadium is different. When betting baseball totals, it’s crucial to have a grasp of what the different ballparks are like. Some have much closer walls than others, making it a lot easier to hit home runs. There are also wacky wrinkles like Coors Field, where the Rockies play. The park is massive, making it harder to defend, and the altitude makes balls fly farther, so totals are always going to be highest at Coors. Baseball totals betting can be the most complex, but also one of the most fun.

Hockey over/under betting

Hockey is similar to baseball in that the totals are going to be lower, but pace of play is just as important as in basketball and football. Some teams want to fly around and get as many shots as they can on net, while others want to just control the puck and play defense. Hockey blends some aspects of totals betting from all the other sports, and hockey totals usually end up somewhere between 5 and 7. They can often also be swung by empty-net goals at the end of games, which you need to factor into your handicapping. You also need to factor in penalties and power plays when betting hockey totals. Imagine the Coyotes have a great power play and are facing the Kings, who spend a lot of time in the penalty box. That could be a recipe for a lot of goals.